The Battle of the Five Armies: Predictions

[Passdagas the Brown]

I haven't seen most of the other nominated films for VFX, but I thought the visual effects in BOFA were nothing special. There was simply too much that looked false to me, whether it was ravens, CGI dwarves or what have you. But having seen the trailers for the other films (and having seen GotG) I noticed quite a lot of iffy CGI. So I can neither be incensed or agreeable, in this case.

That said, outside the VFX and design departments, I don't believe BOFA deserves any other noms. It's an enjoyable film, but not award-worthy, IMO.

The dearth of Selma noms is far more surprising...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It probably would be worth creating a separate thread in the Cottage for this, but as I said above, I don't find the dearth of Selma noms surprising at all. Infuriating, yes, but not surprising.

[Passdagas the Brown]

How come? Do you detect an explicit (or implicit) undercurrent of racism in the Academy?

[yovargas]

I found it hugely surprising as it is exactly the kind of movie they love to give awards to. (The last 3 black actors to win have all played real life figures: Idi Amin, Ray Charles, and Muhammad Ali). Plus it's just the best reviewed movie of the year after Boyhood.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

How come? Do you detect an explicit (or implicit) undercurrent of racism in the Academy?

As I said above, the Academy hates controversy, and there has been considerable (and ridiculous) controversy over the film's portrayal of Lyndon Johnson. Whether there is also an undercurrent of racism reflected I can't say.

[Passdagas the Brown]

Sorry, I missed that.

Though I have to say that controversy over the portrayal of Lyndon Johndon, hardly the most revered former President, would affect the Oscar chances of a film as critically acclaimed as Selma.

But perhaps you're more aware of strange Hollywood politics than I am!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Probably not; you are certainly more keyed into cinema than I am, by far. But I did predict beforehand that Selma would get snubbed.

[Beutlin]

So, no, I have not forgotten about my little predictions contest here. With the Oscars steadily approaching, I think it would be best to announce the first eight winners:

1.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – All Critics 61%
Winner: Passdagas the Brown – 76%
The Tomatometer dropped another one per cent since then. Only the gods know if the third Hobbit film stays “fresh”.

2.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – Top Critics 49%
Winners: Passdagas the Brown and Voronwë the Faithful – 74%

3.) Metascore (as of Monday, December 22nd) 59
Winner: Smaug’s voice: 68

4.) North American Opening Weekend (Friday – Sunday) $54,724,334
Winner: Voronwë the Faithful - $72 mil

5.) North American Opening Five Days (Wednesday – Sunday) $89,131,544
Winner: Yovargas - $90 mil

6.) Total North American Gross (as of February 14th) $253,161,689
Winner: Voronwë the Faithful - $297 mil

7.) World Wide Gross (as of February 14th) $939,561,689
Winner: Yovargas - $1 bil

8.) Oscar Nominations 1
Winner: Yovargas and Voronwë the Faithful

Score:
• Yovargas: 3
• Voronwë the Faithful: 4
• Passdagas the Brown: 2
• Smaug’s voice: 1

As both yov and V predicted that the Hobbit would win no Oscars, this would mean that Voronwë wins the competition. For the sake of tension I am giving yov another point as his prediction for the five-day-opening was the most accurate out of all the non-Oscar predictions. And now here comes the twist: If the film wins an Oscar in a week from now, PtB gets three points, as he was the only one who predicted that this would happen. So in other words: If the Hobbit scores with the academy, PtB wins the Manner Schnitten, otherwise the prize goes to both yov and V.

[yovargas]

An honor to share this prestigious prize with such distinguished company.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I think yov is the real winner, since he is the only one that made a prediction that was fairly accurate.

[Beutlin]

I am terribly sorry for the long delay.

Voronwë the Faithful and Yovargas have won this prestigious award. May their names be remembered in the ages to come!

Your prize awaits you:



(I would need some address though to send away the precious. Send me a private message, or an e-mail. Your data will be handled confidential and not sent to the highest bidder. Gandalf and Bilbo not included.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

PM on the way!