Health Care Reform

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It seems unlikely that this Graham-Cassidy bill will have enough votes to pass, but we'll see. Arizona's GOP Governor Doug Ducey has endorsed the bill in an apparent effort to get McCain to vote for it, but McCain is still being noncommittal. Neither Collins nor Murkowski, the other two GOP senators who voted against the "skinny" repeal have stated a position on this bill, but it is hard for me to imagine either of them voting for it. And Rand Paul has stated that he is a definite no, because it doesn't go far enough in repealing the ACA. Assuming that he is not just posturing to try to get concessions, and that I am correct about Collins and Murkowski, the bill would fail regardless of what McCain would do. Moreover, there are other GOP senators who voted for the skinny repeal with the understanding that it would never become law and they would have an opportunity to vote for a different "better" bill after conferencing with the House that are likely to have doubts about this bill. Plus, they only have until the end of this month to try to pass it this year with a simple majority using budget reconciliation.

Still, it is better to be vigilant than complacent.

[Frelga]

Nate Silver tweeted that this bill has a chance of passing but I haven't read the linked 538 writeup.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... -this-time

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The write-up, by Perry Bacon, has a lot of good analysis, but the bottom-line is that he says that despite the fact that Paul says he is a definite no, it is questionable whether he would actually cast the decisive vote (e.g., the one vote that prevents them from getting to 50) that "saves" ObamaCare. And despite McCain's deep friendship with Graham and the backing of Ducey, everything that McCain said was why he voted against the previous repeal effort is equally true about this one, with the added factor that exactly the type of bi-partisan work to improve the ACA that he called for has been going on at the same time this bill is being pushed by the GOP only. He would have to completely reverse everything he said. I find it hard to picture him doing that at this juncture. Still, Silver is right, they could succeed.

[Frelga]

McCain said very firmly that he wants regular process. I hope that means no.

Also, this Twitter thread, in which a self-described Sassy Gay Republican learns why healthy people need health insurance.

https://twitter.com/BillyArmagh/status/ ... 5264324608

[Voronwë the Faithful]

He seems to mean it, but he also has made it clear that his friendship with Graham is very important to him. I'm still unsure about him. The other wildcard is Murkowski, as apparently McConnell, Cassidy and Graham have been trying to somehow sweeten the pot for Alaska to make it more appealing for her to vote yes. If both McCain and Murkowski voted yes, it looks like there is a good chance that it would pass, as the only other ones that seem clearly to be in the no column are Collins and Paul (and as Perry Bacon wrote at 538, it questionable whether Paul would really cast the decisive vote to "save" ObamaCare). This one is really going to go down to the wire. Again.

[Primula Baggins]

I don’t have a heart condition, but I’m feeling one coming on.

[Frelga]

MURKOWSKI 202-224-6665
COLLINS 202-224-2523
MCCAIN 202-224-2235
HELLER 202-224-6244
CAPITO 202-224-6472
https://t.co/MG3HfzSgd8

[Sunsilver]

Also, this Twitter thread, in which a self-described Sassy Gay Republican learns why healthy people need health insurance.

https://twitter.com/BillyArmagh/status/ ... 5264324608

Now that is funny! And ironic, too...

[Primula Baggins]

Unfortunately, it appears that the whole thing might be a clever scam, because he asks for money to pay his bills after putting up a sequence of posts that guaranteed maximum reach.

[Frelga]

But minimum sympathy.

ETA: so the bill authors are trying to court Murkowski by exempting Alaska from the bill's provisions.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/2 ... eal-242978

[Inanna]

But minimum sympathy.

ETA: so the bill authors are trying to court Murkowski by exempting Alaska from the bill's provisions.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/2 ... eal-242978

You really CAN'T make this stuff up.

[Primula Baggins]

Of course she will never notice that she could achieve the same objective without trashing the U.S. health care system simply by voting no. . . .

[Primula Baggins]

JOHN McCAIN IS VOTING NO.

McCain says he will vote ‘no’ on Cassidy-Graham bill, dealing potentially decisive blow to the health-care repeal effort
By Washington Post Staff September 22 at 2:03 PM
In a lengthy written statement, Sen. John McCain said he "cannot in good conscience" vote for the proposal from Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), which GOP leaders have been aiming to bring to the Senate floor next week.

"I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried. Nor could I support it without knowing how much it will cost, how it will effect insurance premiums, and how many people will be helped or hurt by it," said McCain.

Link

*breathes into a paper bag*

[Sunsilver]

JOHN McCAIN IS VOTING NO.

McCain says he will vote ‘no’ on Cassidy-Graham bill, dealing potentially decisive blow to the health-care repeal effort
By Washington Post Staff September 22 at 2:03 PM
In a lengthy written statement, Sen. John McCain said he "cannot in good conscience" vote for the proposal from Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), which GOP leaders have been aiming to bring to the Senate floor next week.

"I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried. Nor could I support it without knowing how much it will cost, how it will effect insurance premiums, and how many people will be helped or hurt by it," said McCain.

Link

*breathes into a paper bag*

YES!! Finally, a voice of reason in the Republican ranks!

[Primula Baggins]

There still needs to be one more no to kill it outright, but Susan Collins already said today that she is definitely leaning no. This gives her cover to announce she's going to do it.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It's not over yet, though that certainly makes it harder. Even if McCain holds to his word (likely but not guaranteed given that the bill is sponsored by his best friend), and Collins also moves to a firm no, they could still potentially win over Paul and Murkowski and pass this disaster of a bill. I don't think it is likely, but I still don't think it is impossible.

[Primula Baggins]

No, it isn't impossible, but it's now much less likely than it was when we all got up this morning. I'll take it.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Me too!

[Frelga]

Collins is "leaning" no. Whatever that means.

I feel like a campaign of emailing her the video of the spontaneous applause she got at the airport after the last vote would be helpful right now.

[Primula Baggins]

I think people are already on it. I've also seen photos of Lisa Murkowski getting delighted hugs when she stepped off the plane in Alaska.