Chaos in Congress

[Cerin]

Thank you for the explanations!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I suspect they will pressure Ryan to take the job.

There is something about the whole Paul Ryan thing that I don't understand. He insists that he doesn't want the job because it involves too much travel and he wants to spend time with his family, particularly his young children. But just three years ago, he was the GOP nominee for Vice President, a job that if anything requires more travel than the Speaker position. His young children were even younger at that point. I seriously doubt that is the real reason he doesn't want the job. I think he doesn't want to deal with the disfunction that drove Boehner out and led McCarthy to withdraw from consideration. He certainly isn't above not telling the truth (does anyone remember the supposed sub-3-hour marathon that he claimed to have run?).

That having been said, latest reports suggest that he is "discussing the possibility of pursuing the job." If he does, I doubt he will be any more successful at bringing the disparate elements of the party together than Boehner was.

[Alatar]

<Beavis and Butthead> Heh. Boner.</Beavis and Butthead>

[River]

*snerk*

He probably had a horrible time in high school.

[Primula Baggins]

"It's pronounced BAYNER!!!!! . . . Aw, jeez, fellas, c'mon!"

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile, the saga continues. Paul Ryan has announced that he is willing to run but only if everyone supports him, they agree that they can't get rid of him, and he doesn't actually have to do the job.

Well, that an exaggeration of his conditions to some extent. He has insisted that before he runs, he gets the endorsement of all of the major blocks of the GOP House contingent, including the Freedom Caucus, and that he has the 218 votes needed for election locked up. He as also insisted that the rules be changed to eliminate the kind of motion that was being filed against John Boehner to kick him out of the Speakership. And he wants assurances that he won't have to travel on the weekends so he can spend that time with his family, even though such travel has long been an essential part of the Speaker's job.

At least some of the Freedom Caucus is not buying it, at least so far.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hou ... 6a900ee3a2

Stay tuned!

[River]

It sounds like he doesn't actually want the job, he's just putting his hat in the ring to make the powers that be happy and he's laying down difficult conditions in the hopes that he'll be able to bow out.

[Primula Baggins]

If they can't elect someone in time, John Boehner will have to push through one last debt limit increase. I hope he manages to get one that will last until 2017. The conservative caucus may go for that on the not unreasonable assumption that Republicans will control the House, Senate, and presidency by then.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Boehner has already stated that he doesn't believe that a clean debt limit increase can pass. Pretty much no one believes him, but it is still disturbing that he says it.

Going back to Ryan, apparently about 75% of the Freedom Caucus has indicated that they will back him, which falls short of the 80% necessary for an official endorsement, but is more than enough to get him to the 218 vote threshold. It is unclear, however, whether they are willing to agree to his conditions, so things are still up in the air.

Of course, I think it is important to remember that Ryan is the one that came up with some of the draconian budgets proposed by the GOP that sought to do away with Medicare as we know it, among other things. This is not some moderate. He is firmly in the right-wing camp.

[Primula Baggins]

For me that's one of the unbelievable things about this moment: that Paul Ryan is positioned as a moderate relative to this coalition. Their party is truly reaping what it sowed in 2010.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It is looking more likely that Speaker Ryan is going to be a reality.

Here is a very interesting NY Times article reviewing the demands of the Freedom Caucus. I don't believe that Ryan has made specific responses to these demands, but one would think he must have made at least some assurances to them in order have won endorsement from most of them.

Paul Ryan as Speaker: A Preview of the Fights He Will Face, In Plain English

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

[Primula Baggins]

I am very afraid. Revising a complex system to match the demands of people who don't understand it at all, or worse, who actually want it to break? Because they were elected by promising to break it?

How have we come to this?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Our only hope is that Paul Ryan will turn out to be more concerned about the welfare of the country than ideology.

How did it come to this, indeed?

[RoseMorninStar]

Paul Ryan is a HUGE admirer of Ayn Rand. I have a lot of issues with her hypocritical philosophy.

He is not well received in his home town.

[Faramond]

Surely a philosophy can't be hypocritical. A philosopher might be.

And Paul Ryan's hometown is heavily Democratic. That he is not well received there ( whatever that means ) only proves that people are partisan!

[Primula Baggins]

Good point, Faramond.

[Faramond]

Their party is truly reaping what it sowed in 2010.

What are they reaping now? A clear majority in both houses of congress? Isn't bickering over the Speaker a problem you *want* to have? You could be bickering over minority leader instead.

What exactly did the Republic Party sow in 2010? I'm not exactly sure I know what you mean.

Is it a reference to the Tea Party? But that never came from the party, but from people who would like to take the party in a different direction.

[Primula Baggins]

In 2009 and 2010, the Tea Party movement got encouragement and funding from, among other more-or-less mainstream Republican sources, the Koch brothers. The plan was to increase Republican turnout in order to take the House. Which they did. What they don't seem to have realized is that they would not be able to control this faction. The Kochs et al. seemed to think they could swell Republican voting by increasing Tea Party enthusiasm, but that after the election all these voters (and the people they elected) would then fall into line as new mainstream Republicans in time for the next presidential election. It didn't happen for 2012, and it's even farther from happening now. Instead the mainstream GOP has lost control of the party, especially with campaign funding essentially unregulated.

So, yes, I would say they are reaping what they sowed.

[Faramond]

In 2010 there were already establishment candidates losing in primaries to Tea Party people. The Party wasn't behind that. That cost them possible Senate pickups in NV and DE.

[Primula Baggins]

The Kochs started funding the movement in 2009. I don't know when others started. Maybe the Party itself was not behind that, but while costing them two could-have-been-close races for Senate seats, it got them the House, and more importantly, many state houses and governorships and the power to draw the lines for redistricting after the 2010 census—which ensured that they will keep the House until at least 2020. They're playing a long game. But they won't win what they really want, complete control of national legislation and budgeting, if they can't win the presidency. The tactics they used to whip up enthusiasm on the far right are getting in the way of their ultimate goal.

Who knows what will happen? But totally writing off the Hispanic vote (and I would argue the majority of women's votes) is not going to help them in the general election.