Brexit Carried - Endgame

[Alatar]

Keyword: Almost. But if you want to quibble, in the broadest sense, your post is mostly wrong, inaccurate or drawing the incorrect results based on flawed assumptions.

[Túrin Turambar]

So the proposed Brexit deal was approved by cabinet, leading to the resignation of Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and calls for Theresa May's resignation by pro-Brexit Conservative backbenchers, who feel the proposed deal is a Brexit in name only.

The two questions now are whether the deal will pass Parliament (Labour opposes it) and whether May's leadership will survive (her allies argue she has enough support to see off any challenge). If the deal does flounder, though, I'm not sure if May can continue, particularly leading a minority government and facing a robust insurgency from the Conservative right.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

My best, fairly uninformed, guess is that the deal fails in Parliament, and May is ousted.

[Frelga]

I realized recently that California has zero problems putting a proposition on the ballot that modifies or cancels previously passed proposition. Now, nobody said that California's model of direct democracy is reasonable or even sane. But I'm also not sure how reasonable it is to resist redoing a referendum. I understand that the people have spoken, but does it have to mean that they are not allowed to say anything else ever again?

[Túrin Turambar]

Putting legislative propositions up for a vote in regular elections is the norm in the US but exceptional in the UK, so each British referendum is unique on its own terms. In this case, the Brexit referendum was non-binding, so it isn't legislating through the ballot like it would be in America, but all the major parties did agree to honour the result. That said, there's no moral or legal reason why there couldn't be a second referendum. The problems are a) political - it looks a hell of a lot like the political elite just putting up propositions for election until it gets the result it wants, which will feed into populist dissatisfaction, b) timing - the UK leaves the EU on 30 March 2019, and c) all the major parties pledged to the honour the result of the first referendum, so they've wedged themselves. There is a chance any proposed deal will be put up for a vote, possibly with remain as an option. But we'll see.

I don't want to bet on any outcome now, but if I had to, I'd bet on Voronwë's prediction. The big question is - who would replace May?

[River]

Interesting. I didn't realize the Brexit referendum wasn't legally binding. But, of course, having taken the question to the people in such a way, the politicians painted themselves into a corner.

To me, the whole thing smelled of folly from the start. I can't say I'm enjoying watching Britain go through this, but it's an interesting tale of populism and hubris.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This.

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[Pearly Di]

Voronwë -

To me, the whole thing smelled of folly from the start. I can't say I'm enjoying watching Britain go through this, but it's an interesting tale of populism and hubris.

Indeed, River. And not just folly. Seems there are dark forces behind it all: This makes for a disturbing read:

https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/11/1 ... n-mueller/

'... All eyes are transfixed on the EU exit sign. Yet the skulduggery, mayhem, and amateur dramatics of the Brexit negotiations have become perfect cover for something far more chilling. From the corridors of Whitehall and Westminster to the studios of the BBC, Britain’s establishment has buried its head in the sand while democracy and the rule of law have been subverted in plain sight. The government is colluding with an omniscient surveillance superpower. A hostile foreign power has deployed a chemical weapon on our streets.

However bleak and dark and troubled America seems right now, it’s not as bleak and dark and troubled as Britain. You have Robert S. Mueller. We don’t.'

[Túrin Turambar]

For those struggling to keep up on what's going on from outside the UK (me included), TLDR News on Youtube has a series of short animated videos on different Brexit topics.

[Túrin Turambar]

The House of Commons will vote on the Brexit deal on 11 December after a 5-day debate. Here we go...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

So, now that the vote has been canceled what happens next?

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[Túrin Turambar]

It looks like the vote has been delayed rather than cancelled, although of course, in political speak, delay can mean cancellation. Speaker John Bercow has called for Parliament to be given a vote on whether the vote should be cancelled, but I don't know of any way he can force one. If the vote doesn't go ahead I've got no idea what will happen.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I think one way or another there is going to be a vote of no-confidence on May.

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[Túrin Turambar]

Yes, that seems very likely. But unless the DUP votes with the Opposition, or unless some Tories rebel, she has the numbers to survive a vote in Parliament. It's less-clear if there's going to be a party-room challenge against her, or if any potential challenger has the numbers.

[Frelga]

The entire "will of the people" argument seems incredibly disingenuous to me. It's like asking someone if they want a free pony.

"Sure, a free pony sounds great."

"OK, but it will have to live in your bedroom, and you'll have to shovel manure off your carpet, and you can only ride it indoors, and it costs $50,000 a year to feed."

"Wait, no, that's not going to work for me."

"Here comes the pony. Respecting your will here."

"But I didn't know...."

"Nope, you have spoken."

[Alatar]

Theresa May raises the possibility of United Ireland

https://www.independent.ie/business/bre ... 14798.html

A United Ireland will move dramatically closer if the 'backstop' is removed from the Brexit deal, British Prime Minister Theresa May has said.

In a warning that caused significant surprise in Dublin, Mrs May openly admitted that voters in Northern Ireland may want to join the Republic rather than see Border posts re-erected.

"They (in Northern Ireland) do not want a return to a hard Border. And if this House cares about preserving our union, it must listen to those people because our union will only endure with their consent," she said.

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An Irish Government source told the Irish Independent: "We have been very careful not to talk about a united Ireland during this, so to hear it from the British prime minister was extraordinary."

[Frelga]

It seems like that would be significant? Possibly momentous?

[Alatar]

Yeah, its pretty huge. Obviously commentators would have mentioned that Brexit could make reunification more likely (ST:TNG Reference), but to hear it mooted by the British Prime Minister is extremely significant, even if she was only using it as a stick to threaten the DUP with. Realistically though, I imagine they would be delighted to be rid of the headache of Northern Ireland. I'm just not sure we could afford to take on their debts!

[Alatar]

No confidence vote triggered

[Túrin Turambar]

It's on. Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, has confirmed that he has received the 48 letters from Conservative MPs required to call a no-confidence vote. May says she will contest, and the vote is scheduled for 6:00 to 8:00 pm Wednesday (local time).

If I had to place a bet, I think she'll survive. There doesn't seem to enough support for the challengers. Of course, I could be wrong, or more Conservative MPs could abandon her now that her leadership appears in crisis. But even if she survives, she could still come out of this fatally wounded if enough MPs vote against her.

(To clarify, we're talking about a vote among Conservative MPs for their leader, not a no-confidence motion in the Government itself held in the Parliament - these are two different things)