Brexit Carried - Endgame

[Túrin Turambar]

The debate over prorogation has seen another couple of rounds fired in the ongoing battle of the wits between two of the internet's favourite MPs, Speaker John Bercow and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Bercow has described the Prime Minister's proposal as an attack on Parliament and it's right to debate matters of importance, while Rees-Mogg (now in cabinet) supports the Government. The Sun put together a compilation of some of their exchanges, which include at one point a debate over etymology during a point of order:

[River]

I need an Explain Like I'm Five version of what happened in the UK parliament today. A Tory MP bailed on his party while PM Johnson was delivering a speech and then there was some sort of vote that the government lost and now more Tories are being expelled? What happens next? Is there going to be a new round of elections?

In other news, word came through the grapevine today that my UK counterparts are stockpiling lab supplies so they don't run out of pipets if/when the UK comes crashing out of the EU and imports are frozen. I can only flinch in sympathy as I have been known to do the same because my boss is going on vacation or some other trivial thing has the possibility of disrupting my supply chain. I also found out that the European logistics team is making plans for this and moving as many goods as they can to the continent. One of our best-selling science widgets is manufactured in the UK so the prospect of a crash/hard Brexit/complete and utter fustercluck is, to put it mildly, terrifying to that division. Probably terrifying to the customers as well because, in pharma, you can't just swap in a different product because the usual has turned into unobtanium. You have to go through a huge round of comparability and validation studies. It ain't cheap and it ain't easy and that might be why sales are so good, now that I think about it. Everyone's stockpiling.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Johnson To Call For Snap Election After Conservatives Suffer Key Parliamentary Defeat

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[Voronwë the Faithful]

Among those who are being booted from the Conservative Party (and thus from Parliament) for voting against Johnson is Winston Churchill's grandson. Old Winnie is probably rolling in his grave (apparently there was some talk of 'deselecting' Churchill himself when he opposed then-PM Neville Chamberlain's Munich deal with Hitler, but it did not happen).

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[Frelga]

I would also like an Explainer to a Five Year Old. I have no idea what is happening anymore, just that it's not going to end well.

Honestly, the joke Sunny posted about the Queen setting her ravening corgis on the Parliament is beginning to sound reasonable.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

River and Frelga, I don't think THEY know what is going on anymore than we do.

That having been said, this is my understanding.

1. Last week Johnson got the Queen to agree to suspend Parliament for five weeks, reducing the time that legislation could be past to block or delay Brexit.

2. Johnson also has engaged in a bit of Trumpian alternative facts by claiming that he is well on his way to negotiating a new, better deal with the EU, when it fact he has made no progress to doing so, according to the EU.

3. Today, Parliament voted to take charge of the legislative agenda from the government, with 21 Tories voting with the opposition.

4. Johnson announced that the 21 "turncoats" will be kicked out of the Party.

5. The reason Parliament took charge of the legislative agenda is so that tomorrow they can vote in a law that requires that Brexit be delayed unless either a new deal is reached with the EU that is approved by Parliament (impossible) or Parliament approves no-deal Brexit (even more impossible).

6. Johnson has announced that he will call for a new election in October if that law passes. But a new election has to be approved by Parliament, which is not guaranteed.

7. The other alternative is try to get rid of Johnson through a vote of no confidence, but there is no guarantee that that will work either.

[Túrin Turambar]

That's my understanding as well. Only thing I'd add is that an early election could be triggered by one of two things - a vote by two-thirds of the House, or a successful vote of no-confidence in the Government. Most likely Labour would support a vote for an election, so if Johnson can get enough of the Conservatives onside it will likely pass.

Wrap-up of today from the BBC:

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The latest, as I understand it, is that the House of Commons has passed the bill, sending it to the unelected House of Lords. As I understand things, they cannot reject the bill, they can either pass it or amend it and send it back to Commons. However, they can (and probably will) delay until Parliament is suspended next week, leaving things in a state of complete and utter chaos.

Correct?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile, Johnson has called for a new election on October 15, but it seems unlikely that that will be approved unless and until the law passes.

I think.

[Túrin Turambar]

Labour abstained on the general election vote, so it failed to get to the 2/3rds majority. It needed 464, but got 298 for and 56 against. The Prime Minister wryly pointed out that this meant that the Opposition had basically voted to keep his Government in office.

I'm not entirely sure what effect the Parliament's bill will have - it's meant to prevent a No-Deal Brexit, but it can't actually compel the EU to grant a further extension beyond 31 October.

[Sunsilver]

For those of you trying to sort this out, I just came across the following on FB:



I mean, seriously! Makes my joke about the Wild Hunt seem not so far-fetched after all!! The British parliament does indeed have some strange rules!

[Sunsilver]

For those of you not familiar with the British system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords

[Frelga]

If they can call it Wednesday when it's Friday, can they call it a Brexit but stay in the EU?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

PM Boris's younger brother Jo has resigned from the government, saying that he needed to put the future of his country above 'family loyalty'.

[Alatar]

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[Alatar]

Ah, if you don't laugh, you'll cry!

https://www.facebook.com/tom.cole.336/v ... 627118698/

[River]

I need my tears for my allergies so I'm going to laugh. Hysterically in the office. I don't care who's watching.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Britain's House Of Lords Approves Bill Blocking No-Deal Brexit

Now it goes to the Queen for Royal Assent, which is just a formality. Then Johnson will renew his call for a snap election. Here are my two questions:

1) now that the law has passed, is it more likely that Labour and the other opposition parties will support an election?

2) is there anything stopping Johnson from simply ignoring the law and refusing to request an extension and instead just crash out on October 31?

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[Sunsilver]

Found this video VERY apropos to the situation:


The U.K Brexiting: