Brexit Carried - Endgame

[River]

[Túrin Turambar]

BREAKING: Teresa May has announced she will resign as Prime Minister on June 7.

There has been some recent talk of a fourth vote on the deal, but I think she decided in the end her position was untenable. The race for the Conservative leadership and the keys to Number 10 will now begin.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And then what? Am I correct in believing that, despite the unwillingness up to now for anyone to say so, eventually a second referendum is inevitable?

[Túrin Turambar]

I think what happens next depends entirely on who May's successor is.

[Frelga]

Next, the Leviathan supporting the British Isles awakens, tows the entire set across La Manche, leaves it at the shores of Europe, and swims away.

That seems more probable and sensible than any option currently on the table.

[Túrin Turambar]

Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party has swept the EU elections in the UK, winning 29 of 73 British seats in the European Parliament. The Lib Dems came a strong second, going from 1 seat to 16. As in the recent local council elections, voters basically used the election as a proxy for their views on Brexit, voting either for the party promising a hard Brexit quickly or the one promising a second referendum. Ironically, of course, the EU Parliament can’t deliver Brexit, nor can the local councils, but it’s an outlet.

Farage’s decision to leave UKIP now seems vindicated – his former party has been wiped out. Labour has dropped from 20 seats to 10 and the Conservatives from 15 seats to 4, presumably punished by the voters for the chaos in Parliament. Greens are up to 7 from 3.

The new EU Parliament will be significantly more fractured than the old one, with the mainstream centre-left and centre-right groupings both losing votes. The results across Europe look fairly similar to the UK – with significant gains for the new liberal-centrist group (of which the British Lib Dems are a member) and the Eurosceptic Europeans for Freedom and Democracy (of which Nigel Farage is the leader).

The other bit of news dominating the headlines is the steady march of Europe of Nations and Freedom, the right-wing populist grouping. Their most significant gains have been in France, where National Rally (formerly the National Front) is emerging as the major opponent to President Macron’s centrism and internationalism. National Rally has won more votes than any other party. Likewise in Italy, where Matteo Salvini’s League has cleaned up (fun fact – Benito Mussolini’s great-grandson is a League candidate). I’m not sure how ENF will hold together given the traditional rivalries between the groups, but it’s going to be a major component of the new Parliament. Full results here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Euro ... t_election

Some news on the Conservative leadership race shortly.

[Alatar]

Its all very depressing.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Agreed. Both there and here.

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[Beutlin]

One slight correction to Túrin's post: Mussolini’s great-grandson Caio Giulio Cesare (as in Julius Caesar) Mussolini did not run for the Lega Nord but for the smaller party Fratelli d'Italia. That said, he is hardly the first descendant of Mussolini to go into politics: His granddaughter, Alessandra Mussolini, served as a member for the European parliament in the mid-2000s, at that time for Berlusconi's Forza Italia.

[Túrin Turambar]

This guy has a whole series of these on his Youtube Channel - I'm finding them strangely addictive:

(For those who don't know, this one features Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is something of an internet phenomenon)

[yovargas]

I don't really understand most of the politics of this thing but I still found that quiet entertaining.

[Túrin Turambar]

The Conservatives have started winnowing down the leadership candidates with their first round of voting. Seven have progressed, three have been knocked out. Boris Johnson looks unbeatable at this stage, with 114 votes to Jeremy Hunt's 43 and Michael Gove's 37. I'm surprised Dominic Raab didn't do better, but I probably don't follow U.K. politics closely enough to be making predictions.

Johnson summed up his philosophy like this, and I happen to think he's dead right on his final point:

"Occasionally some plaster comes off the ceiling as a result of a phrase I may have used, or indeed as a result of how that phrase has been wrenched out of context and interpreted by those who wish for reasons of their own to caricature my views. But I think it is vital that we as politicians remember that one of the reasons why the public feels alienated now from us all as a breed — politicians — is because too often they feel we are muffling and veiling our language, not speaking as we find, covering everything up in bureaucratic platitudes, when what they want to hear is what we genuinely think."

IOW, the next season of Brexit is shaping up to be a corker.

[Túrin Turambar]

Down to three - the results of the fourth ballot have just come in, with Johnson on 157 and Gove and Hunt on 61 and 59 respectively. It's now the showdown to see who will face Johnson. Rory Stewart put up a spirited campaign criticising a No-Deal Brexit and did far better than anyone anticipated - expect to hear more from him.

ETA: Down to two - it's Johnson vs Hunt, with the result of the ballot of the party membership announced on 22 July.

I also found this neat video - English and British election results from 1685 (generally held to be the start of recognisable parties):

[Túrin Turambar]

Michael Gove only lost in the fifth round to Jeremy Hunt 75-77. In other words, if two MPs had backed Gove, he'd now be facing Johnson. The general view (and mine as well) is that admitting he used cocaine as a journalist damaged his standing with the Conservative rank-and-file, and I can understand why - as Justice Secretary he enforced lengthy gaol sentences for class-A drug possession while having a history of using a class-A drug himself. One law for me, and another for thee, and all that. I happen to think people should be allowed to have made mistakes before entering public life, but if I was in one of HM's Prisons for drug offences I'd be feeling pretty hard done by. But it gives me an excuse to post this (I seem to be getting more and more of my UK news from comedy Youtube channels):

[Voronwë the Faithful]

https://amp.businessinsider.com/no-deal ... ent-2019-7

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[Frelga]

I saw a headline about getting the Queen involved to stop the no deal Brexit (IIRC). Is that for real?

[Túrin Turambar]

I saw a headline about getting the Queen involved to stop the no deal Brexit (IIRC). Is that for real?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48936711

There was talk of a pro-Brexit PM having the Queen prorogue parliament to prevent another vote - the power to prorogue rests with the Crown and hence is exercised by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister per the conventions of the Westminster system. This raised the question of whether the Queen would, or could, refuse to follow the advice. At the moment it's a non-issue as Johnson has said he won't try it (assuming he wins, of course - we'll know this week).

[Túrin Turambar]

Just heard the news on the BBC. Johnson beat out Hunt by a margin of 2-1. Johnson will kiss hands tomorrow and be PM by tomorrow evening.

Johnson vs Corbyn at the dispatch box - no-one can complain it's a bland choice between Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum candidates.

[Sunsilver]

I saw a headline about getting the Queen involved to stop the no deal Brexit (IIRC). Is that for real?

Frelga, I think it goes something like this:

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It sounds like a no-deal Brexit just became much closer to a reality. The Queen has approved Johnson's request to suspend Parliament for five weeks, giving almost no time between when they return in middle of October and the October 31 deadline. As I understand it, parliament could call for a no confidence vote next week (though I'm not sure I understand how they could do that if Parliament is suspended?) but that it is questionable whether enough of Johnson's fellow members of the Conservative Party would support such a vote (despite there being a significant number of Conservative members who are wary of a no-deal Brexit). And even if they did successfully hold a no-confidence vote, Johnson could then ask the Queen to set a new election on November 1, essentially guaranteeing the no-deal Brexit (though it is not clear to me that the Queen would necessarily have to do that, and could set an earlier election).

I would be glad to have our more knowledgeable members comment about what they think about all of this, correct my misstatements, and say would they expect to happen next!

ETA: I guess the suspension doesn't start right away, so that is why they would potentially be able to do a motion of no confidence next week, before the suspension actually starts.