Brexit Carried - Endgame
Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
From what I can tell, yes.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Thanks, Al. What do you think about there being a 'do-over'?
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
What would be better for the UK is if they allow a vote, because they will vote to remain.
What would be better for Ireland? That's a more tricky question. On the one hand, England are our closest trading partner so it will hurt us if they leave. On the other hand, we will be the only native English speaking country left in the EU, which is a very strong position. Also, it will almost certainly lead to a referendum on the reunification of Ireland. So there's that.
What would be better for Ireland? That's a more tricky question. On the one hand, England are our closest trading partner so it will hurt us if they leave. On the other hand, we will be the only native English speaking country left in the EU, which is a very strong position. Also, it will almost certainly lead to a referendum on the reunification of Ireland. So there's that.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Interesting. I'm glad to get your perspective!
Can you say more about why that is the case, and how you feel about it?Also, it will almost certainly lead to a referendum on the reunification of Ireland. So there's that.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
So, if Brexit goes ahead, that will recreate a customs Border between the North and the Republic. That will inevitably lead to uniforms on the border and the rise of hostilities again. It would essentially scrap the Good Friday agreement. The North voted Remain in the Brexit Referendum and are essentially being removed from the EU against their will. They stand to lose a lot and gain very little in a Brexit arrangement. Also, the fact that the Tory Government is currently only in power with the support of the DUP in the North meant that the power sharing agreement is at serious risk. Unofficial polls show that there is already a majority willing to seek independence if a referendum were to be called, but the political will is not there. The official line is "we're too busy with Brexit, lets talk later". Now, Independence does not equate to a United Ireland, but its certainly a huge step in that direction. Scotland are already arguing for another Independence referendum. They failed narrowly last time, and that was before Brexit. I suspect it would be a landslide vistory for Scottish Independence it that were brought back to the polls.
TL:DR
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politic ... -1.3640857
TL:DR
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politic ... -1.3640857
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Thanks, Al! Very interesting.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
An independent Ireland and an independent Scotland is an interesting prospect. Any possibility of some kind of Celtic agreement, do you think?
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Really hard to know. I imagine it would be more like Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland would be members of the EU, while the UK (comprising Wales and England) would not. Ireland and Northern Ireland would probably be separate entities for at least a decade or two but would work towards a combined government eventually. I'd be surprised if Scotland were part of that. The fact that there's a sea border between the island of Ireland and Scotland makes working together less urgent.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Just wanted to say that I'm finding these broader implications of Brexit for Ireland fascinating.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Any concerns that the situation may turn violent?
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Absolutely, if the border returns. Which is why the UK are getting a hard "No" from the EU (and Ireland) on any plan that includes a de facto border on the Island of Ireland. The DUP, who are supporting the Tory Government to stay in power, are absolutely refusing to consider a border in the Irish sea. Hence the impasse.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Not to be patronising, but this explanation for a Kids program in Ireland is being lauded as the clearest explanation of the issues without jargon.
https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0 ... -for-kids/
https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0 ... -for-kids/
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
No, that's great, I need a baby version. I have not been following UK politics, except through the Twitter feeds of JK Rowling and The_Angel, both of whom are vocally anti-Brexit.
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
This is far from guaranteed. The issues which led to Brexit two years ago are still there, and a lot of voters might view a second referendum as the political elites saying something like "it was very naughty of you to vote the wrong way last time. We'll give you another chance, and please don't disappoint us again."Alatar wrote:What would be better for the UK is if they allow a vote, because they will vote to remain.
At any rate, I'm not sure why the Irish border problem should be a deal-breaker. There are borders between EU and non-EU members in Scandinavia and around Switzerland, and, while Nin can confirm, I don't think they make life unduly difficult for the people living near them.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
The problem is the political elite don't want a Brexit. So they are all dragging their feet. Both the UK and the EU are dragging their feet. Some people are thinking it was foolish to let the people actually vote on such an important issue. People are getting frustrated at the pace of leaving.
The first attempts to negotiate were basically a "Brexit in name only", but that was clearly not what the people wanted, so of course they rejected that particular Brexit. The next few negotiations all fell apart. Because of deadlines the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit, which is scarier than the other versions.
Meanwhile it looks like Hungary is going to make life even more difficult for the EU.
The first attempts to negotiate were basically a "Brexit in name only", but that was clearly not what the people wanted, so of course they rejected that particular Brexit. The next few negotiations all fell apart. Because of deadlines the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit, which is scarier than the other versions.
Meanwhile it looks like Hungary is going to make life even more difficult for the EU.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Túrin Turambar wrote:This is far from guaranteed. The issues which led to Brexit two years ago are still there, and a lot of voters might view a second referendum as the political elites saying something like "it was very naughty of you to vote the wrong way last time. We'll give you another chance, and please don't disappoint us again."Alatar wrote:What would be better for the UK is if they allow a vote, because they will vote to remain.
At any rate, I'm not sure why the Irish border problem should be a deal-breaker. There are borders between EU and non-EU members in Scandinavia and around Switzerland, and, while Nin can confirm, I don't think they make life unduly difficult for the people living near them.
Its not guaranteed, but I think its very likely. The first Brexit was a protest vote that got out of hand and won to everyone's surprise. Even the day after Brexit passed, Leave voters were complaining that they hadn't actually believed it would pass.
The Irish border and the ones ins Scandinavia are staggeringly different in every respect. You can't realistically speak of them in the same breath. The Irish border was routinely costing lives, up to 3,500 over a couple of decades.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
Cenedril_Gildinaur wrote:The problem is the political elite don't want a Brexit. So they are all dragging their feet. Both the UK and the EU are dragging their feet. Some people are thinking it was foolish to let the people actually vote on such an important issue. People are getting frustrated at the pace of leaving.
The first attempts to negotiate were basically a "Brexit in name only", but that was clearly not what the people wanted, so of course they rejected that particular Brexit. The next few negotiations all fell apart. Because of deadlines the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit, which is scarier than the other versions.
Meanwhile it looks like Hungary is going to make life even more difficult for the EU.
This is wrong in almost every respect.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
In which respect, that it was wrong to let the people decide such an important issue or that Hungary is going to make things difficult for the EU?
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
TrueThe problem is the political elite don't want a Brexit.
FalseSo they are all dragging their feet. Both the UK and the EU are dragging their feet.
I'm sure some people do, but not the majoritySome people are thinking it was foolish to let the people actually vote on such an important issue.
Some people are, many are hoping the slow pace will encourage a change of heart.People are getting frustrated at the pace of leaving.
FalseThe first attempts to negotiate were basically a "Brexit in name only",
True for some. Less than 40% by latest polls.but that was clearly not what the people wanted,
False in every respect. The people are in no position to reject anything. The EU rejected the Chequers Plan because it partitions the North, among other things. Its fundamentally flawed.so of course they rejected that particular Brexit.
TrueThe next few negotiations all fell apart.
Possibly, but highly unlikelyBecause of deadlines the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit,
Not particularlywhich is scarier than the other versions.
Not sure why you think that, and care less. Not my circus, not my monkeys.Meanwhile it looks like Hungary is going to make life even more difficult for the EU.
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Re: Brexit Carried - Cameron Resigns
That's a lot of true statements for something that is false in almost every respect.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
-- Samuel Adams
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