Brexit Carried - Endgame

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Unless (at least as I understand it, and it may have changed) they vote again on May's plan tomorrow and somehow pass it.

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[Voronwë the Faithful]

Well, they did vote on it again, and -- predictably -- it failed again. It was closer, but still not close enough to suggest that there is any chance that it will ever pass.

So I guess Monday they go back to debating alternates, and eventually take more indicative votes in effort to agree on a way forward? With customs union or a second referandum the most likely possibilities?

[Túrin Turambar]

Pretty much, as far as I can tell. The indicative vote held earlier in the week for a second referendum was actually for a motion requiring any solution to be put up to a popular vote, so technically the Government could put up a simple "Do you approve of the Prime Minister's plan?". This would be bizarre, though. Then again, being bizarre doesn't seem to have been an impediment to things happening so far.

[Túrin Turambar]

Another four indicative votes yesterday, all defeated (and one disrupted by naked climate change protestors gate-crashing the house). Two, however, got very close. A customs union, 273-276; and a requirement to put any solution to a second referendum, 280-292 (these are not mutually exclusive, btw). Common Market 2.0 also got to 262-282.

Parliament has again taken control of its schedule from the Government to hold more indicative votes tomorrow. Some are within a few votes of flipping, so expect some furious whipping. Cabinet is having a long meeting now. It might come down to sheer attrition.

Without any agreement, the UK leaves the EU without a deal on April 12.

[Frelga]

Nate Silver shared this handy flowchart of the Brexit options here: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 0165049345

Comments are worth scanning, cautiously. My favorite was "Brexit is like those Russian dash-cam videos on YouTube. You just know something bad is going to happen, but you do not know how bad, and you cannot look away." complete with a link to 16 minutes of Russian dash-cam videos.

[yovargas]

Good god what's with those Russian drivers.....

[Hachimitsu]

Honestly, the Russian dashcam analogy is perfect. *lol*

I heard Russians have dash cams as insurance scams are a problem there. Don’t know if that is true.


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[Frelga]

I can't get over the irony of Brits complaining that people come take over their jobs when they used to go take over those people's countries.

[Túrin Turambar]

In fairness, when they did take over another country, they were often quite happy to let the existing population keep doing the work.

[Frelga]

In fairness, when they did take over another country, they were often quite happy to let the existing population keep doing the work.

Fairness?

[Túrin Turambar]

For some reason, the extensions don't seem to get widely reported in the media, but the EU has now granted the UK an extension until 31 October unless Parliament approves a deal first. The UK will take part in EU elections in May.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

How odd that that was not widely reported in the media!

Am I wrong in suspecting that Parliament will now punt until about October 25?

[Hachimitsu]

I think they will Voronwë.
I did hear about the October 31 deadline, but through FB feed on of BBC News (I turn on live notifications.)

[Inanna]

How odd that that was not widely reported in the media!
?

I did read it in the NYTimes...

[Eldy]

Unless Parliament votes to prevent the UK holding European elections (in which case they would automatically crash out of the EU on 1 June), I think the most likely scenario is another staring contest at the end of October as all parties hope the others will blink first. Calling an early general election is a possibility but that would be a huge risk and I doubt many Tories are eager for a repeat of 2017.

[Túrin Turambar]

Having lost Nigel Farage to the new Brexit Party, UKIP is making a bid for seats in the upcoming EU parliamentary elections with high-profile Youtubers Sargon of Akkad and Count Dankula, the latter who gained notoriety when he taught his dog to do a Nazi salute and ended up getting fined.

I’ve wondered at what point politically-outspoken Youtubers would start to run for office. This seems to be it.

[Frelga]

I completely lost my ability to recognize satire. That was satire, right?

[Túrin Turambar]

[Túrin Turambar]

A very poor result for the Conservatives in this week's local government elections, with the party losing 1,333 seats and 44 councils. And an uninspiring one for Labour, losing 82 seats and 6 councils. The Liberal Democrats have been the big winner, gaining 704 seats and 10 councils, with most of the rest of the gains going to Independents. UKIP lost all 145 of their seats. I think it's fair to read this as a backlash against the way the major parties have handled Brexit, and probably also a show of support for a second referendum (which is Lib Dem policy under their 'Exit from Brexit' slogan).

[Frelga]

A rudimentary knowledge of Russian grammar is required to understand why Brexit is now a present tense singular verb for a guest who says goodbye but continues to sit there and refuses to leave.

Eta: present tense singular third person, although it works as an infinitive