The (no longer) much too early 2024 election thread

[Voronwë the Faithful]

In anticipation of Trump's "big announcement" tonight, here is a video of his supporters stomping on a Ron DeSantis flag. That seems emblematic of what the upcoming campaign is likely to be like.

[Snowdog]

Oh dear...
He's going to try and play the 'underdog' card that served him well in 2015-16....

[Eldy]

In the spirit of trying to get through the next 24 months...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Oh dear...
He's going to try and play the 'underdog' card that served him well in 2015-16....

Exactly. Again with a governor of Florida as the favorite. (Then it was Jeb Bush.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[N.E. Brigand]

I see that a number of news sites have this title or something similar: "Trump announces 3rd bid for White House."

But the ones I've checked don't say what his first two bids were.

He pitched himself to the George H.W. Bush campaign as a Vice Presidential choice in 1988. They laughed it off.

He ran to be the Reform Party nominee in 1999-2000. I would call that bid number one.

He explored the possibility of a presidential run in 2011-2012, but held off at that time.

He was the Republican Party nominee and elected to the presidency in 2016. That would be bid number two.

Does his attempt to win reelection in 2020 not count as bid number three because he was already President?

[River]

Is the RNC still paying his legal bills? People are saying he's doing this because he thinks it'll save him from indictment but I'm wondering if he just needs cash.

[Frelga]

The NPR has the right template for this announcement.

BREAKING: Donald Trump, who tried to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election and inspired a deadly riot at the Capitol in a desperate attempt to keep himself in power, has filed to run for president again in 2024.

[Eldy]

Good on NPR.

Does his attempt to win reelection in 2020 not count as bid number three because he was already President?

I'd think it's more likely people are not counting, or have simply forgotten, his 2000 campaign.

[Túrin Turambar]

Weren't his first two bids 2016 and 2020?

[Frelga]

Those were the ones where he got nominated. Looks like NE is counting the one(s) where he didn't. Technically, he hasn't yet this time.

I say technically because I agree with Seth Abramson. If he is not nominated, he will likely run as an independent or 3rd party, and Republicans won't risk it.

[Eldy]

Weren't his first two bids 2016 and 2020?

As NEB mentioned, Trump briefly ran in the Reform Party primary in 2000 but ended his campaign after only four months. The nomination was eventually won by Pat Buchanan, whom Trump described as a neo-Nazi in his announcement of his withdrawal.

Edit: cross-post with Frelga. I agree Trump would continue as a third-party candidate if he lost the GOP primary.

[Alatar]

I agree Trump would continue as a third-party candidate if he lost the GOP primary.

That would be a huge win for Democrats surely? Split the Republican vote?

[Eldy]

That would be a huge win for Democrats surely? Split the Republican vote?

Absolutely, yes, that would be a godsend for Democrats. I just don't think Trump cares about the Republican Party except insofar as it serves as a vehicle for his own ambitions. The big question is whether the Republican leaders who do care would risk withholding the nomination even if Trump does poorly in the actual primary elections (which is very much a hypothetical, given how popular he is with the base). If it ends up being a relatively tight race between, say, Trump and DeSantis, I could see DeSantis getting a lot of behind-the-scenes pressure to drop out even if he's in the lead. If Trump got crushed in the early primaries it would be a different matter, but that seems highly unlikely to me.

[Túrin Turambar]

Has a serious candidate for president ever launched their campaign this early?

[Sunsilver]

That would be a huge win for Democrats surely? Split the Republican vote?

Absolutely, yes, that would be a godsend for Democrats. I just don't think Trump cares about the Republican Party except insofar as it serves as a vehicle for his own ambitions. The big question is whether the Republican leaders who do care would risk withholding the nomination even if Trump does poorly in the actual primary elections (which is very much a hypothetical, given how popular he is with the base).

You got that right, Eldy! The problem with the Republican party in a nutshell:

[Dave_LF]

The NPR has the right template for this announcement.

BREAKING: Donald Trump, who tried to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election and inspired a deadly riot at the Capitol in a desperate attempt to keep himself in power, has filed to run for president again in 2024.

.
Though the NY Post's approach is also reasonable:
.

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[Voronwë the Faithful]

Has a serious candidate for president ever launched their campaign this early?

Not that I can recall. Though of course it is debatable whether Trump is really a serious candidate.

Is the RNC still paying his legal bills? People are saying he's doing this because he thinks it'll save him from indictment but I'm wondering if he just needs cash.

Actually, it is just the opposite. The RNC said that if he announced a run they would not pay his legal bills.

RNC wont pay Trump's legal bills if he launches another White House bid, chair says

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The best response to this news:

[River]

Is the RNC still paying his legal bills? People are saying he's doing this because he thinks it'll save him from indictment but I'm wondering if he just needs cash.

Actually, it is just the opposite. The RNC said that if he announced a run they would not pay his legal bills.

RNC wont pay Trump's legal bills if he launches another White House bid, chair says

I think we were posting past each other. I was trying to imply that Trump was using his Presidential campaign as a legal defense fund because the RNC may have ditched him and the millstone of his legal woes.