2018 U.S. Congressional elections

[Frelga]

Speaking as a Marvel fan, Bucky is not a villain.

[yovargas]

Damn you, Hydra!!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I have a feeling we are talking about two completely different things (though perhaps I am wrong).

I am referring to the villain (who actually is by all accounts a very nice person in real life) known throughout New England as Bucky "Bleeping" Dent.

[Frelga]

I didn't know that, V. My baseball lore is a more West-coast bound.

But yes, I do realize that we are not talking about the same Bucky. In Marvel comic and movies, Bucky Barnes is a character who fought in WWII alongside Captain America but was captured and brainwashed into being a metal-armed assassin. Which... you probably knew? Anyway, that was the joke I was trying to make.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Turning back to the subject at hand (ahem), the GOP candidate Debbie Lesko won the special election in Arizona's 8th District (due to the resignation of Trevor Franks as a result of sex scandal). However, she only won by about five points in a district that Trump won by over 20 points and that Franks last won by 37 points, and required an infusion of more than a million dollars of outside money to push Lesko over the top. So even though the GOP won, the Democrats are considering it another positive sign for their chances in November.

[Primula Baggins]

It seems consistent with many other election results lately—big swings toward the D column, even if it isn't enough to swing the election.

Republican congresspeople who won their districts by "only" 10 points in 2016 should be sweating a bit now.

[Inanna]

I wonder how much of this is just related to turnout in presidential elections. Is 538 following it?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Constantly. Here is Nate Silver's latest:

Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP

Also, their group chat about Could A Blue Wave Really Make Its Way To Texas?

[Frelga]

You betcha. And he says it isn't.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 7012600832

[Inanna]

Thank you people (much better than a google search on the topic).

[Frelga]

NPR:

In Republican primaries across the country, candidates are battling over the question of who will be the most loyal fighter for President Trump in Washington. https://t.co/lavSFPju5R

Because if something has been proven not to work, why stop doing it?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

In West Virginia, a state that overwhelming voted for Trump in 2016, there is a three-way GOP primary to run against the incumbent Democrat, Joe Manchin, one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, but still one of the most likely to be flipped by the GOP (did I mention that Trump overwhelming won the state?). One of the candidates has a name that sounded familiar to me, but I couldn't quite bring myself to believe it was true, but sure enough it is Don Blankenship, the former CEO of Massey Energy, the firm whose gross negligence directly led to the deaths of 29 miners, resulting in Blankenship himself being convicted of conspiring to evade mine safety standards and spending a year in jail. He is running on the platform that he is "Trumpier than Trump" and making blatantly racist attacks on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's wife Elaine Chou's Chinese heritage. Having apparently learned his lessen in Alabama, Trump himself has tweeted to his followers in West Virginia not to vote for Blankenship, but apparently what polling there is show that he has a chance to win the primary. While that is good news for anyone who wants the Democrats to have a chance to take back the Senate, it is daunting and disappointing to think that there might be enough voters in any state willing to vote for a convicted felon whose greed was directly responsible for 29 deaths that they have a chance to win a state-wide major party nomination.

[Dave_LF]

The alt-right GOP is basically what you'd get if all the trolls from YouTube comment threads got together and formed a political party. So not that surprising.

[Frelga]

I believe Blankenship conceded?

A+ commentary from the CA governor race by a local radio reporter.

Then, a little dustup between @TheRealJohnHCox and @JoinTravisAllen over who's more conservative. Not the first. Unclear whether this is strategy or they just really hate each other.

https://twitter.com/mlagos/status/994038613137547264

[Frelga]

NPR

In a statement announcing his third-party candidacy, Don Blankenship said "The political establishment is determined to keep me—the most anti-establishment candidate in the nation—out of the United States Senate."

https://t.co/jnxL1DPABc

Does this mean that a Democratic candidate may have a chance?

P. S.: I find it a tad worrying that the image Tapatalk shows me for this thread is the Hydra emblem...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Well, the "Democratic candidate" is actually the incumbent, Joe Manchin. So while West Virginia is a very GOP leaning and Trump-friendly state, he certainly has a chance, though he is definitely one of the most threatened Democratic incumbents.

If Blankenship really is able to run as a third-party candidate, that might split the vote somewhat (I doubt he'll get that many votes, but in a close race it could be enough to make the difference). However, he has a large obstacle to overcome to even get on the ballot, because West Virginia has a so-called "sore loser" law that prevents the loser of a major party primary to run as a third party or independent candidate. Blankenship apparently plans to contest that law in court, and my uneducated guess is that he might have a decent argument, but it still is an obstacle.

[River]

He could also mount a write-in campaign.

[Frelga]

Right, I actually knew about the incumbent. My bad.

Out of curiosity, what would his argument be? Other than that he doesn't like the outcome of the primary.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I would guess he would argue that his First Amendment right of free expression would prohibit him from being banned from running as a third party candidate. He also might make an equal protection argument, claiming that there was no rational basis for him to be treated differently than someone else simply because he lost a primary.

[yovargas]

My first thought upon reading that that was a law in Virginia was that there is no way that could possibly be constitutional.