2020 Presidential Election

[Cerin]

Is there any reason to think that polls will be more accurate this time than they were in 2016?

[Inanna]

Good point, Cerin.

[River]

Is there any reason to think that polls will be more accurate this time than they were in 2016?

Presumably the pollsters and the aggregators collectively learned from their mistakes.

[RoseMorninStar]

Actually the pollsters were correct, Hillary did win the popular vote. She beat Trump by 2,864,974 votes, a 2.1% margin. Almost 3 million votes. The Trump campaign played a different game and aimed for electoral votes. From that perspective the election was not the 'will of the people'.

[Inanna]

And I actually just remembered that 538 rang the warning bell. I remember reading the article that “the blue wall is a blue chain link fence, With holes”

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Is there any reason to think that polls will be more accurate this time than they were in 2016?

Hi Cerin. It is still too early to take polls too seriously, and polls are always just snapshot at best that can change rapidly, and only are so accurate in the best of times.

That having been said, the polls were basically accurate within the margin of error in 2016. It's just that the vote was close enough, and the electoral college situation convoluted enough, that within that margin of error Trump was able to win despite losing the popular vote because he very closely won a few crucial states.

With all of those caveats, there are some crucial differences this year from 2016. In 2016, at no time did polls show that Clinton had a majority of votes (e.g., more than 50%). Biden, on the other hand, has consistently been polling over 50% in the general election polls for some time. The overall gap between him and Mr. Trump is considerably higher than it was at this time in the election cycle than it was for Clinton. More importantly, the gap between Biden and Trump in the crucialswing states is also higher, and there are more states that Mr. Trump won in 2016 that appear to be in play this time.

So while it makes sense to be skeptical of the polls and cognizant that they can change rapidly, Biden is in a much better position than Clinton was, and because the situation with the pandemic, the economy, and the social unrest over racial issues is not likely to get much better for Mr. Trump, that seems unlikely to change, absent some unexpected development.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This article graphically shows the difference between this race and the last four presidential elections. It is stark.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/25/her ... races.html

Sent from my VS988 using Tapatalk

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And more from CNN about polls out today showing Biden increasing his lead in states won by Trump in 2016.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/25/poli ... index.html

Sent from my VS988 using Tapatalk

[Túrin Turambar]

Actually the pollsters were correct, Hillary did win the popular vote. She beat Trump by 2,864,974 votes, a 2.1% margin. Almost 3 million votes. The Trump campaign played a different game and aimed for electoral votes. From that perspective the election was not the 'will of the people'.

This. The polls were collectively as good in 2016 as in 2012. It was just that the vote in 2016 was close enough for the errors to matter.

[River]

I just saw a Fox News poll (which gets good mark from 538) that put Biden up by 9 points in Florida (49 to 40, +/- 3) and in a statistical tie in GA, NC, and TX.

Biden is tied with Trump in Texas.

This is weird.

[RoseMorninStar]

Perhaps not so weird. His failures, incompetence, and inability to lead are catastrophic and the pandemic has brought that into focus. His self-serving attitude; thanking older voters for 'sacrificing' themselves for the economy and saying that we need to cut back on testing so it 'doesn't look so bad' while anyone coming near him gets tested, doesn't sit well with older voters. His nasty bullying and racism may play well to those at his rallies but there are people at home listening too. People may have been willing to give him a chance last time but he has failed. Epically. His constant whining is tiresome and hella annoying. His finger pointing and blame game is without honor. The buck stops with him and if he can't handle that he should never have run. The chaos. The drama. ugh.. Who knows if Bolton's book has anything to do with current poll numbers. That Trump has been asking any foreign country he can for help winning the American election has to strike some as treasonous.

[Túrin Turambar]

Swing states change over time. Texas has a large urban population, many wealthy and educated voters, and a lot of minority voters. These are demographics where Trump is weak. Biden may very well win Texas before he wins states like Iowa and Ohio, which have a lot of working-class white voters.

(Here's some current numbers from 538)

Of course, four months is a long time in politics, so who knows at this stage.

[Inanna]

And let’s not forget it’s 2020.

[Sunsilver]

I have to admit I'm taking this with a grain of salt, but a FB friend of mine says the person reporting it (Gasparino) is usually accurate: https://news.yahoo.com/trump-fragile-mo ... 18908.html

Who do you think might replace him, if this turns out to be true?

[Dave_LF]

I... am skeptical. I think Trump is in such deep trouble with the law and who knows who else that he would never willingly give up the protection of his office.

But he also does seem like the type who would quit before he'd lose.

[RoseMorninStar]

Tony Schwartz, the ghostwriter on, 'Art of the Deal' has often said that Trump would rather quit than lose. However, Dave makes a very valid point.. Trump has a lot personally riding on staying in power/under protection. He has spent most of his term working on those protections (firing good people & installing lackeys) & he won't cede that lightly. In fact, should he lose, I predict we are in for a nasty, nasty non-peaceful transfer of power.

I have read pundits guessing that, should Trump's support fall to 35% or less, the Republican party may try to nominate someone else (Pence?)

[Sunsilver]

God noooooo....

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I have to admit I'm taking this with a grain of salt

That is smart.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I toggle back and forth between thinking this is far-fetched and being terrified.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-coul ... on-1513975

Sent from my VS988 using Tapatalk

[Dave_LF]

I don't think it's far-fetched. Trump *might* decline to run if he's convinced he's too far behind to win and is somehow assured he'll be protected from the law and/or whoever he owes money to afterwards. Barring that, I don't believe he will leave office willingly under any circumstances.