2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[elengil]

I'm shocked he was actually there

[N.E. Brigand]

Hey, remember how nine days ago all ten living former U.S. Defense Secretaries, including Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld, signed a letter emphasizing that U.S. armed forces can't interfere in the peaceful transition of presidential power, and a lot of folks thought that was kind of ominous, and then there was an attempted coup three days later in which the national guard was very slow to respond to D.C. requests for help?

Well, today the currently serving Joint Chiefs of Staff have issued a letter reminding military service members that it would violate their oath to "disrupt the Constitutional process" of the inauguration. (And yes, they do identify Biden as the President-elect.)

There's no reason to worry about the Chiefs feeling it was necessary to write that, I'm sure.

- - - - - - - - - -
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that Mitch McConnell "has told associates he believes Trump committed impeachable offenses and is pleased Democrats are moving to impeach him".

And McConnell, so far, hasn't denied this.

- - - - - - - - - -
House Democrats are considering the possibility of a formal censure of Rep. Mo Brooks (Republican of South Carolina) for his pre-riot speech last Wednesday. Brooks has issued a statement saying that he only spoke there because the White House asked him to.

Not the Trump campaign. The White House.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/ ... 5113437188

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Nor has he confirmed it.

[N.E. Brigand]

Nor has he confirmed it.

Nor do I expect him to. But the Times did give him the chance to say it wasn't true, and if he wanted to deny it, he would. He may later do so. But right now, what this means is that McConnell wants people to know this. In fact, it's almost certain the associates speaking with the Times only did so after getting McConnell's approval.

- - - - - - - - - -
Also per the Times, House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who actually voted to throw out electoral votes for Joe Biden last week, is starting to hum a different tune. He's reported to have told Trump in a phone call yesterday that the rioters were Trump supporters not members of Antifa. He's also said to have urged House Republicans not to publicly criticize those Republicans who vote for impeachment, because such public criticism from the right will put those pro-impeachment Republican members' lives in danger. As with McConnell, it's very likely that McCarthy wants that information out there, as if probably true of this: he's had discussions with colleagues about the possibility of asking Trump to resign, and of voting in favor of censure for the president.

Baby steps that may come to nothing, but it does show that Congressional Republicans are worried about Adam Schiff's "cord of steel" warning from a year ago.

[Dave_LF]

Wal-Mart is now on the list of corporations refusing to donate to the sedition caucus. *Wal-Mart*. Sh*t's getting serious now.

[Frelga]

Breaking. House Republican Conference chair Liz Cheney: "I will vote to impeach the President."

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status ... 62784?s=19

Does it matter? We know that House has the votes.

[Dave_LF]

It's a moral victory, and she lays the case out plainly:

On January 6, 2021 a violent mob attacked the United States Capitol to obstruct the process of our democracy and stop the counting of presidential electoral votes. This insurrection caused injury, death and destruction in the most sacred space in our Republic.

Much more will become clear in coming days and weeks, but what we know now is enough. The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.

I will vote to impeach the President.

[Frelga]

Is it dawning on the GOP that they are much better off in 2024 if Trump can't run as an independent or third party?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yes it matters.

[Túrin Turambar]

Unless there's a significant shift towards impeachment with the House GOP (which I consider unlikely as a majority of them voted against certification) I'm not sure how much difference it will make. The Senate does matter, but I don't think there's enough votes for impeachment. Additionally, I understand that McConnell has no intention of recalling the Senate before the inauguration, and GOP Senators might see voting for conviction as being without benefit afterwards. Many would probably prefer that Trump doesn't run again, but that might not be enough. Impeaching a president doesn't seem to bring much political benefit, and (with the exception of 1974, which was unusually clear-cut) every party which has pushed impeachment has gone backwards or under-performed expectations in the next Congressional election.

[N.E. Brigand]

Unless there's a significant shift towards impeachment with the House GOP (which I consider unlikely as a majority of them voted against certification) I'm not sure how much difference it will make. The Senate does matter, but I don't think there's enough votes for impeachment. Additionally, I understand that McConnell has no intention of recalling the Senate before the inauguration, and GOP Senators might see voting for conviction as being without benefit afterwards. Many would probably prefer that Trump doesn't run again, but that might not be enough. Impeaching a president doesn't seem to bring much political benefit, and (with the exception of 1974, which was unusually clear-cut) every party which has pushed impeachment has gone backwards or under-performed expectations in the next Congressional election.

No president made such a serious effort to kill members of Congress before -- although Andrew Jackson Johnson was impeached in part for threatening members of Congress in a speech he gave right here in Cleveland.

Edited to fix name.

[elengil]

Watching the House on invoking the 25th. There was a reference to the numerous and serious injuries incurred by law enforcement - sadly I think it's too easy to forget that there were many injuries just because they weren't murdered. I know I tend to have this misconception at times that when they talk about deaths, it isn't just a matter of someone dies or doesn't, it's some die, some are severely injured but didn't die - doesn't negate their injuries. Another reminder of the actions of the crowd.

[N.E. Brigand]

It's a moral victory, and she lays the case out plainly:

On January 6, 2021 a violent mob attacked the United States Capitol to obstruct the process of our democracy and stop the counting of presidential electoral votes. This insurrection caused injury, death and destruction in the most sacred space in our Republic.

Much more will become clear in coming days and weeks, but what we know now is enough. The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.

I will vote to impeach the President.

In the FBI press conference, we were told that things happened in the Capitol last Wednesday, as yet unknown to the public, that are "shocking." Liz Cheney says "more will become clear" soon. Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy are both suggesting to members that the President should go. I wonder what they know that we don't.

[RoseMorninStar]

After Trump lost the election he fired a lot of people in key places and installed people without experience/odd choices. I think we're going to find there was a coordinated effort to organize a coup. Trump can do a lot of damage/continue to incite violence even after he is out of office. I think they need to send a strong, unified message. Insurrection is not OK.

[Dave_LF]

One of the arrested terrorists is now saying he had help on the inside from members of Congress

[N.E. Brigand]

The House Judiciary Committee has issued a 76-page report explaining why Trump needs to be impeached.

[RoseMorninStar]

One of the arrested terrorists is now saying he had help on the inside from members of Congress

I am not surprised. I think we're going to hear more of that. At various levels. They have messages with maps of the corridors to certain offices from someone on the inside.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

One of the arrested terrorists is now saying he had help on the inside from members of Congress

Do you have a link about this?

[Dave_LF]

Working on it. Sounds like he's naming Gosar, Biggs, and Brooks.

[N.E. Brigand]

Working on it. Sounds like he's naming Gosar, Biggs, and Brooks.

So despite this picture, it wasn't Lindsey Graham?


- - - - - - - - - -
It's highly speculative, but some observers think some sort of deal is developing between Pelosi, McConnell, McCarthy, and Schumer that basically gives the Republican Party a way to survive post-Trump. Impeaching and removing Trump appears to be something that McConnell now wants, so Democrats may be asking for something in return, like the expulsion of some of the insane members of Congress, like those three. We'll see. Trying not to be too hopeful. But also if it does happen, we ought to recognize that it is, in part, a hard-nosed play by Republican leadership to save themselves.

It's been clear for years that there would need to be some sort of endgame to Trump's removal, if that was ever possible. I long thought that it meant some deal for Trump himself: a pardon from Pence or the like. But he may have crossed the line with Wednesday's attack, which may take his needs out of the equation. If something is happening, here's hoping McConnell has called the White House Counsel's office and told them not to move on any more pardons.