narya wrote:So what ever happened to the hole in the ozone? We don't hear about that anymore, here in the northern hemisphere. And if it is still around, do your senior members of governement "believe" it is there?
It's actually going away. The action taken to ban CFCs in most of the world has been effective, and the residual CFCs from the years when they were used universally are degrading and not being replaced. The hole is getting smaller.
Sometimes this science stuff works.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
One interesting thing about the ozone issue is that the HFCs that replaced the CFCs are what's called an extreme "short-lived climate forcer." Like methane and black carbon, HFCs are stronger greenhouse gases than CO2, though unlike CO2, they only remain in the atmosphere for a decade and a half or so.
So a solution to the ozone crisis is contributing to climate change. But there are replacement chemicals already in the works that could solve this. Just takes a little political will...
Passdagas the Brown wrote: Just takes a little political will...
Oh.....you were serious? I thought that was sarcasm. I don't believe in political will beyond the political will to be re-elected for another term, and the sweetening of the power blocks and financial backers who will smooth the way to said re-election. [/colour me jaded]
Mornings wouldn't suck so badly if they came later in the day.
HFCs are less pervasive than CO2, and as with CFCs, there's precedent for global action to eliminate them (via the Montreal Protocol). It's actually one area of international climate policy development that the US is leading on...
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
Sure, though I think he means that direct causality is difficult to attribute to climate change when it comes to conflict. A better way to put it is that climate change can act as one contributing factor or driver - one that can help create the conditions in which conflict might become more likely. One cause among many.
In any event, the full report - which was written by much more senior retired military officers than the Captain quoted here - is worth a read.
The important thing here is that the US military is managing the risk as it does other risks. Waiting for 100% certainty before acting to mitigate and adapt is not an option.
Not sure why this is so controversial, particularly here in the US. Perhaps now that the military is taking it seriously, the GOP will start to wake up.
" In 2009 researchers from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency predicted that universal veganism would reduce agriculture-related carbon emissions by 17 percent, methane emissions by 24 percent, and nitrous oxide emissions by 21 percent by 2050. Universal vegetarianism would result in similarly impressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. What’s more, worldwide vegetarianism or veganism would achieve these gains at a much lower cost than a purely energy-focused intervention involving carbon taxes and renewable energy technology."
The analysis pointed to other outcomes, such as:
- freeing up a "staggering 26 percent of the world’s ice-free land surface" currently used for ruminant grazing;
- dramatic decrease in the risk of antibiotic-resistant infections;
- the unavoidable negative of tanking economies dependent on the meat and animal-product industries.
Discuss: Do we owe it to ourselves, our children, and a world at risk of global warming, to turn to vegetarianism?
Mornings wouldn't suck so badly if they came later in the day.
Well, problem one is that even if you do it, it won't do any good unless nearly everyone else does too. It might be better to ask whether governments (or the UN) should promote vegetarianism as policy. But even if they did and even if it worked, what would we do once the population grew to the point where total emissions from all the vegetable production matched what we have now from vegetables plus meat?
Will we reach that point before or after we reach carrying capacity and undergo a population collapse?
Also, is that 26% figure including land that isn't suitable for much more than grazing ruminants? I live in a part of the US where this is often the case. It's dry here.
I have seen that report and I could spot holes big enough to drive a heard of cattle through. The chief being the one that River pointed out - that there is a great deal of land that is not suitable for growing plants that are edible by humans. Too dry, too steep, too hot, too cold. But it does grow enough vegetation that herbivores can eat and then transform into food edible by humans. Vegetarian diet - consuming that grass in the form of milk and eggs - is a bit more achievable than vegan, but it is also wasteful, as you need few male animals. Do you let them die of old age? That might be an option in some climates, but not if you have to store fodder for winter.
If converting pastures to arable land is impossible, we might consider growing plants in artificial environment, using vertical space. I can't do the math, but I expect it would take more water than is available for example on the African savanna, and the amount of chemicals this would require would probably offset savings from cow farts.
Also, no cattle means no cheap and plentiful organic fertilizer, meaning even more syntheric ferilizers, which requires a great deal of energy and results in dangerous pollution. Also, no cheap and efficient waste disposal (pigs).
And so on.
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.
What Frelga said. In some parts of the world, eating meat from hunting or from food animals is an efficiency. They scavenge efficiently, eating some things that are widely available but inedible to humans. Then humans can eat them.
I can't and won't argue against the waste and cruelty built into the present system of supplying meat, and although I love it, I try to eat less of it for a whole lot of reasons. Eating meat ethically (local, humane, antibiotic-free) is expensive. The cheaper meat in supermarkets is expensive in other ways. But I can't envision an entire planet ceasing to eat meat. Ceasing ridiculous overconsumption would go a long way to helping the situation.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
Oh look. The granola-eating hippies at the U.S. military think climate change poses "immediate risks" to the nation. Typical tree hugger nonsense from our Birkenstock-wearing men and women in uniform...
Exactly the kind of sissification you see when you let teh gays in.
Must be it, right? Can't be that the devastating effects of climate change on food supplies and coastlines result in global instability. That would make too much sense.
I'm well aware that weather isn't climate, as well as being aware of what's happening in the Northeast right now . . . but it was 68°F here yesterday. A beautiful sunny 24th of January. This beats the previous record, set 70 years ago, by three degrees. =
It's been cold, too, and doubtless will be again; but I've already decided I won't be planting any more bulbs that count on an extended period of cold weather to bloom well in the spring. And when we replace shrubs and trees in our yard, I'm going to make sure they're OK in zones that are warmer than ours, as well as in what we've got now (which is about one zone warmer than when we moved here). And I'm going to set out the peas and broccoli early.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
So the drought in California gets a lot of attention. Fingers point in lots of directions on that one and people are claiming that it's a cyclical thing and California has been wetter than normal for several generations and now it's reverting back to normal.
What's lost in the noise about Cali is the whole West Coast is drying out. To the point that part of the Olympic rain forest is burning. Drought in California you might be able to write off as normal. A temperate rain forest on fire...that's something else entirely. You want to know how wet it usually is on the Olympic Peninsula? You know how Seattle has a reputation for being wet and drippy and mossy? Seattle's in the rain shadow of the Olympic Range. You do not go across the Sound without a rain jacket. You do not expect a nice dry hike under big trees. Oh, it'll be a nice hike, but it won't be dry. Even if it's not actually raining, it's still moist. Every scrap of ground is muddy. Everything else is covered in a fine sheen of moss. There are ferns taller than children and small adults in those forests. But this year, this year, the Peninsula is burning.
I knew there were fires in WA, of course. I'd just assumed they were all out to the east, on the desert side of the Cascades. That happens. It's not pleasant but it's not abnormal. To learn that the rain forest is on fire...that's terrifying. Tipping point. I think we've passed it.
