The 2012 US Election

[Dave_LF]

I knew you would like it and that you'd like it for that reason. In fact, I almost wrote as much when I posted it.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[yovargas]

The strongest criticisms I've heard re: Obama (eta: from the left, at least) have been regarding how he has handled foreign policy issues. The article covered those criticisms too lightly for me to feel like it was truly convincing.

[Dave_LF]

I honestly don't know much about the foreign policy front. For the past four years at any rate, I've been much more focused on domestic issues.

[N.E. Brigand]

That's one of the best articles about Obama that I have seen (since it pretty much expresses my own opinion).

I regularly enjoy Jonathan Chait's pieces.

Meanwhile, the "other Jonathan", Cohn (they used to be colleagues at The New Republic, where Cohn still writes), pens this similarly-minded piece:

The Most Important Election of Our Lives

Some comments respond that 1968 (before my life) or 2000 were of greater signifcance; I am tickled by the one that suggests that 2016 will be more important still. It reminds me of a line from C.S. Lewis's That Hideous Strength about once subtle differences becoming more stark over time (but on the other hand we have Tolkien's comment in a letter about the devil delighting in the way that once-clear differences become more muddied with time).

[Dave_LF]

It is certainly true that '04 and '08 were called the most important elections of our lives at the time (I don't recall if anyone said that in '00 or not, but it becomes a strong candidate in retrospect). And I expect we'll hear it again in '16. I don't know; maybe they really do just keep getting more important every time.

[Dave_LF]

Intrade currently thinks Romney is about 5% more likely to win by at least half a percent than he is to win at all.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Intrade currently thinks Romney is about 5% more likely to win by at least half a percent than he is to win at all.

That actually makes some sense, strange as it sounds. The way the polling looks, it is actually quite likely that if Gov. Romney won the popular vote by 0.5 percent, he would still lose the election. Nate Silver has another of his extremely helpful graphics that shows this quite clearly.



You can see that Silver estimates that Pres. Obama would have a 60% chance of winning the election if Gov. Romney wins the popular vote by 0.5%. Even at 1%, there is still a 35% chance of Pres. Obama winning. Interestingly, it looks like Gov. Romney would need to get to a 3% popular vote win to guarantee winning the election, whereas Pres. Obama would have a 100% chance of winning the electoral college at a 1/5% popular vote win.

[Dave_LF]

I misread "win the popular vote" as "win the election with a popular vote of". So I agree now.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Interesting, though, that Intrade's odds on Obama are so much lower that 538's. Intrade is at 67.2 (that's actually higher than when I looked just a few minutes ago) whereas 538 is at 86.1.

[Holbytla]

I honestly don't know much about the foreign policy front. For the past four years at any rate, I've been much more focused on domestic issues.

I think that may be true for most of the voters. The focus has been on the economy and social agendas. I forget where, but I read that foreign policy currently ranks 6th or 7th in terms of importance to voters.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

If any of our American members are not sure where to go to vote, google "where do I vote" and then enter your address and it will tell you where to go (complete with map and directions).

[Holbytla]

Yes. Polling locations change (ours changed this year), and districts get redrawn.

There are also some locations that now require some form of ID to vote. I know Rhode Island is one such state. No more "vote early and often" or deceased people casting multiple ballots in RI I guess.

[N.E. Brigand]

Interesting, though, that Intrade's odds on Obama are so much lower that 538's. Intrade is at 67.2 (that's actually higher than when I looked just a few minutes ago) whereas 538 is at 86.1.

While Sam Wang has Obama's odds at 98.4% or 99.9%, depending on the calculation. Wang has seen the likelihood of Obama's reelection holding remarkably steady for months; his latest post argues that "the swings of this year’s race could be explained by as few as 3% of people changing their minds".

[Lalaith]

Ohio requires ID.

In government this morning, the girls and I read that since the beginning of the 20th century the taller of the two candidates almost always gets elected. I thought that was interesting and, of course, had to google who was taller--Obama or Romney. Romney is taller.

So there you go, fwiw.

(I know. It's ridiculously silly, but I also thought it was an interesting bit of trivia.)

[River]

Last cycle people were saying that the one who's a Senator always loses...except both candidates were Senators so the conventional wisdom was sort of a wash.

I had to show ID to vote. I can't remember if I did last time. They were accepting either driver's licenses or campus i.d.'s (the early voting polling place I went to was on campus).

[Holbytla]

There is all kinds of that stuff out there, including the Redskins Rule.

[Dave_LF]

And these. He points out that one of these previously 100% accurate rules will fail this year:

-A Democratic president has never beaten a challenger who is taller
-No candidate whose first name includes the letter K has ever lost

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Silver now has it at 91.4% that a Democratic president will beat a challenger who is taller, and that the Redsins Rule will be wrong. That is the highest percentage that he has had for an Obama win in the entire campaign, and the 5.1% increase from yesterday was the biggest one-day change in the campaign (beating the 5.0 swing in Romney's favor from Oct. 11 to Oct. 12). I would imagine that this will be close to his final number, although he does tend to re-crunch the numbers in the early hours of the morning.

Edited to add: It is now up to 92.2%.

Edit again: But now down to 92.0% I guess he still tweeking the numbers.