2020 Presidential Election

[Cerin]

Here is the actual tweet.

"Well @JoeBiden @ABCPolitics townhall feels like I am watching an episode of Mister Rodgers(sp) Neighborhood."

Interpreting the tweet as a Trump supporter comparing Biden to a universally beloved, respected icon who devoted his life to making children feel loved and accepted makes no sense, and is a careless reading.

What might the tweeter mean by, 'feels like I am watching an episode of Mr. Rogers.'?

The obvious question to ask is, what did watching an episode of Mr. Rogers feel like? It felt calm, reassuring, affirming, completely non-threatening, emotionally subdued and extraordinarily low key, because of the gentle, measured way in which Mr. Rogers related to his audience.

The tweeter later "went on to criticize what she called a "therapy session," mocking the difference in tone between ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos and Pennsylvania voters at Biden’s town hall -- where she said "easy questions" were asked -- and of Trump's competing town hall in Miami."

I had also thought the main feature of the evening was the difference in tone between the two town hall environments, with the low key, non-threatening Stephanopolous and the strident, breathless Guthrie so eager to land a blow it was an embarrassment to the notion of a neutral moderator. 

IMO, the thoughtless, knee-jerk reaction of the tweeting left was typical -- not bothering to try and understand what was meant, but simply seizing on an opportunity to indulge their hatred of Trump and his supporters, who are so perverse and depraved in their minds that they would obviously think comparing Biden to Mr. Rogers would be intended as an insult.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mr-roge ... d=73656690

[River]

Eh, the Trump team brought it on themselves. They could have accepted the debate commission's change to a virtual format when they initially made it rather than pulling out and giving the Biden campaign an opportunity to make an alternative commitment. And then, since it was a juicy opportunity for NBC, they could have negotiated a different moderator or laid out some terms for what the moderator could and couldn't do. But none of that happened (I assume that if NBC had breached an agreement in terms for the townhall the Trump campaign would be screeching about it from the rooftops) so they went to whine about it on Twitter instead and they whined in such a way they just ended up looking like jackasses to anyone not already in their fanbase.

I'm not sure nuanced interpretation and tweeting are things that go together that well anyway. Quick announcements and knee-jerk reactions are kind of what the platform was built for.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This is an interesting chart from 538 showing how much the final margins differed from the polls fifteen days out. One thing that stands out is that the movement is almost always towards the GOP candidate, though it usually isn't that much. The biggest movement was in 1992, when it didn't matter much. And check out that margin in 1972!

[Alatar]

I see the attack campaign has started. Have to say, Trump pointing out that Biden must be crooked (cause he has nice house) when he literally s(h)its* on a golden throne and pays $750 in tax seems counterintuitive

* Sorry, not sorry

[River]

I see the attack campaign has started. Have to say, Trump pointing out that Biden must be crooked (cause he has nice house) when he literally s(h)its* on a golden throne and pays $750 in tax seems counterintuitive

* Sorry, not sorry

Well, the alternative is talking about things that happened on his watch. Like this:

[RoseMorninStar]

I see the attack campaign has started. Have to say, Trump pointing out that Biden must be crooked (cause he has nice house) when he literally s(h)its* on a golden throne and pays $750 in tax seems counterintuitive

* Sorry, not sorry

Well, the alternative is talking about things that happened on his watch. Like this:

Alatar, did the attack campaign ever end? He was STILL doing rallies after he won in 2016 and before the inauguration and continued them all throughout his term. These were not for the American people (although we paid for them). They were only for his admirers.

River, the last several Republican administrations have done worse than Democratic counterparts. However, whenever a Democrat is in office the GOP whinges about Tax & Spend Democrats. A 'financial genius' Trump is not.

[Maria]

I was wondering where Saturday Night Live got the idea to have Jim Carrey as Joe Biden start acting like Mr. Rogers.


Someone's tweet, eh?

The obvious question to ask is, what did watching an episode of Mr. Rogers feel like? It felt calm, reassuring, affirming, completely non-threatening, emotionally subdued and extraordinarily low key, because of the gentle, measured way in which Mr. Rogers related to his audience.

My mother wouldn't let me watch "Mr. Rogers" when I was a child. Said it was too "dippy". Watching a Mr. Rogers episode as an adult gives me a strange guilty and somewhat worried feeling. Could this really have rotted my brain as a child? Was my mother wrong? Maybe she should have let us watch it? No, it really is quite useless. Why am I watching this? Was she right? Was she wrong? Should I have let my kids watch it when they were small? No, we couldn't get PBS on broadcast TV back then. So it wasn't even an option. Yes? No? Yes? No? ACCCKKKKKKK!

She wouldn't let us watch Beverly Hillbillies either. I get almost the same reaction watching an episode of that.

Anyway, it boils down to me not liking Joe Biden being compared to Mr. Rogers.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I hesitate to ask this, but what possible similarities could there be between the Beverly Hillbillies and Mister Roger's Neighborhood? I don't think I could not imagine two more different shows if I tried to.

[Cerin]

When I was babysitter age, I could not understand why my young charges adored Mr. Rogers. He seemed so limp and deadpan to me. But then I had a child of my own, and he adored Mr. Rogers, too. In fact, he would put on his suit jacket in advance of the show, and walk through the swinging french doors we had separating the living room at the time, and change into a sweater right along with Mr. Rogers. I came to realize that Mr. Rogers had a profound respect for children and didn't talk down to them. He talked about serious, grown-up issues in a way they could understand. He essentially prepared children for real life. It reminds me of the way a toddler prefers playing with the box a toy comes in rather than with the toy itself. Children have an insatiable drive to learn about real things and Mr. Rogers honored that. (However, those puppets were creepy, imo, and it took me a long time to get used to them.)

Maria, we weren't allowed to watch the Beverly Hillbillies either, nor Green Acres. I think it was because my Dad took offense that two fine actors were brought to such nonsense in the twilight of their careers. (However, I imagine that they were glad of the work.)

[Maria]

Both were considered too stupid to sully my brain with I guess, V. Gilligan's Island was also forbidden. Then we moved to the backwoods of the Ozarks and no more TV at all for me from age 12 until I went to college. I vividly remember the morning my parents were watching TV and the picture on the screen just suddenly shrank down to a tiny dot and then disappeared. Buying another TV was out of the question: too expensive. I'm just explaining that it wasn't ideology so much as economic necessity that lost us TV watching ability when I was young.

I could pick up audio of a local TV station on a transistor radio, and every afternoon I'd sit with my dog on my lap and listen to an episode of "Under Dog". My dog would lift his ears every time he heard the word "Dog" on the show. Under Dog was his hero.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I don't think that there is anything worth saying in response to that, so I'll just move on.

After briefly stalling for three days at 87%, Biden bumped up to 88% today, with Trump still at 12%. It doesn't appear that the "evidence" (which may or may not be planted by Russian intelligence, but which almost certainly is bogus) is moving the needle in the direction intended.

[RoseMorninStar]

Mr. Rogers was a Presbyterian minister. He also had a bachelor's degree in music and attended the U.of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Child Development and collaborated with a child psychologist. I had never heard of the show until I was an adult. I had no TV restrictions when I was growing up but my parents had a business and we were always working. I think some people mistake kindness, mild manners, and a soft and understanding voice with weakness.

[Dave_LF]

(which may or may not be planted by Russian intelligence, but which almost certainly is bogus)

Well, Giuliani did say there's only a 50% chance that's where he got it from. On the other hand, that's way bigger than the odds of Trump winning legitimately.

[elengil]

I definitely watched Mr Rogers and Sesame Street as a child.

[River]

I was allowed to watch Sesame Street and Mr. Rogers, but I could only catch Mr. Rogers when we had half-days at school. So for me it was a special treat. I liked the train. The puppets weird me out as an adult but when I was a kid I liked them. That's actually how I feel about most puppets, actually.

Daniel Tiger is the successor to Mr. Rogers. I'm not impressed, honestly. I miss the whole transition from an adult gently talking about the world to a sweet little story in Imagination Land. The kids like it though.

Regarding 538, I feel like there's always that 1% EC tie transition period before the model stabilizes on a new set of probabilities. I haven't seen Silver comment on it.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I've noticed that, too, River (about 538, not Mr. Rogers and Daniel Tiger).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Two other important election stories today.

One is that the Supreme Court refused to overturn a Court of Appeal ruling that rejected the Trump campaign's attempt to ban Pennsylvania from counting ballots that arrive up to three days after election day. It is particularly telling, however, that the court split 4-4, with Chief Justice Roberts siding with the more liberal justices (again). Add Barrett to the mix and we are likely to get a different result in a similar case.

The other is that the Commission on Presidential Debates announced that in the final debate on Thursday, the mike for candidate that is not speaking during the initial 2 minute answers to questions that are supposed to be free from interruptions. Trump is not pleased, of course, but he really has no choice but to come to the debate, since he is losing and has to try to do something to recover.

[Túrin Turambar]

Regarding the presidential forecast, Nate Silver retweeted this, which I thought was pretty apt (language warning).

[elengil]

Yep, there we go - it's started https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/ ... 55498.html

[RoseMorninStar]

Yep, there we go - it's started https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/ ... 55498.html

I hope people who are voting early/dropping them in the mail or boxes are checking to see if their ballots have been received. This is just insane. I hope they catch whomever did that.