The challenges ahead (Biden's America)

[Frelga]

Correction - driven by a purposeful campaign of disinformation dirtected by state actors like Russia, China, and Iran leveraging vulnerable or specifically designed social media platforms.

[Dave_LF]

The "flood the zone with shit" strategy is really effective, and I'm surprised it took people as long to catch on as it did. In the 1920s, it was difficult to have a good idea what was going on outside your line of sight because there was so little signal. In 2020s, the challenge is that there's so much noise. There were a nice couple decades in between though where it was possible for a person of modest resources to be quite well informed if they made the effort.

I also think there's far too little appreciation for the fact that much of the U.S. populate has shifted into a war mentality, where the important consideration when answering this sort of question is not "what is true?" but rather "what is most damaging to the enemy?"

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'm not buying it. The media follows the people, not the other way around.

[N.E. Brigand]

Again, the people have to be getting their ideas from somewhere. There's no way that half of them were born believing the opposite of reality. We know that just five years ago, nowhere near that many held such anti-reality beliefs. And I really don't believe that, for instance, Covid-19 infections cause a whole bunch of people to suddenly stop believing in reality. Something is causing this to happen. Whatever that something is, if it can be identified, it can be addressed.

Derek Thompson points out that 60% of Americans own stocks (in many cases as part of a 401(k) plan), and they must see that their own stocks (plans) are going up in value, so at least 11% of those people must now believe their own financial information is false! Or rather: they think their stocks are doing well but that other people's stocks are doing poorly. Why? Because they're being told repeatedly that the strongest economy in American history is shit. They hear it from the news. They hear it from their friends, who hear it from the news. They hear it from social media, who hears it from the news. And the news hears it from social media. And since it's not true, it's coming from somewhere.

And one more thing I'm absolutely certain about, regardless of whether Russian and Chinese agents are behind 1% of the negativity of 99% of the negativity: they want us to feel helpless, as if there's nothing we can do to change people's minds and get them to believe the truth. We must not give in to that impulse.

[Frelga]

I'm not buying it. The media follows the people, not the other way around.

Yes, and we know which people.

[RoseMorninStar]

I'm not buying it. The media follows the people, not the other way around.

Yes, and we know which people.

Rich people. Or perhaps that is Reich people.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It's easy to blame the media, or rich people, or whoever else. I advocate looking in the mirror.

[RoseMorninStar]

It's easy to blame the media, or rich people, or whoever else. I advocate looking in the mirror.

While it's true that people believe what they want to believe/we are a product of our own making, it cannot be denied that some have the where-with-all to have have more influence than others. Influencers. Disinformation campaigns. Propaganda (it works). I recall the supposed 'grass root' movement of the Tea Party (TIME: Secret Origins of the Tea Party) which was really big in my area/state, and how it was actually astroturf funded by the Koch brothers. While they may have tapped into something that was already there, it wouldn't have happened without that funding and influence.

[Frelga]

It's easy to blame the media, or rich people, or whoever else. I advocate looking in the mirror.

That's a very optimistic view, because if it's us who are the problem, then we can solve it, but if we are up against a sophisticated disinfo machine, state funded troll a farms, strategically design algorithms, and subversive agents, then what?

Look at the campus protests. I am sure there are lots of young people there who want with their whole hearts to save children and a lot of less pure hearted people who just hate Jews. But it's no coincidence that as we are approaching the most vital election of our times, American progressive youth has organized in support of a terrorist government that massacred a music festival full of young people like them. And, organized in ways that is doing nothing to actually help children in Gaza, but in ways that feed the fears of the right-wing voters.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

What you all say is true, but that doesn't change the fact that change comes first from within. It might not become obvious right away, but eventually the forces of negativity can and will be overcome.

Of course, it might be the dolphins doing so.

[N.E. Brigand]

It's easy to blame the media, or rich people, or whoever else. I advocate looking in the mirror.

That's a very optimistic view, because if it's us who are the problem, then we can solve it, but if we are up against a sophisticated disinfo machine, state funded troll a farms, strategically design algorithms, and subversive agents, then what?

I think my position falls somewhere in the middle. Some self-reflection is always valuable, but I've looked in the mirror, and I saw someone who isn't denying objective reality. So that exercise does no good for solving this problem. Meanwhile the sophisticated disinformation machine, if it exists, wants us to think that we're hopeless against it. But such an enemy only operates in secret because it is ultimately weak. We can defeat it.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I am not, as I think y'all know, naive about the various forces of darkness that propagate our universe, and I fully support taking whatever actions are necessary to expose and oppose those forces. Sometimes the only resource we have is patience, and the realization that as bad as things sometimes seem, nothing is permanent.

[Frelga]

Franco remained in power for 39 years. Salazar for 36. Putin for 24 and counting. It's very hard to dislodge a dictator once one takes hold.

[N.E. Brigand]

At this point in Ronald Reagan's presidency, the average rate of inflation for the previous twelve months was 3.79%.
At this point in Joe Biden's presidency, the average rate of inflation for the previous twelve months is 3.72%.
You can do the math yourself using the numbers found here.

At this point in Ronald Reagan's presidency, the average unemployment rate for the previous twelve months was 8.8%.
At this point Joe Biden's presidency, the average unemployment rate for the previous twelve months is 3.7%.
You can do the math yourself using the numbers found here.

Ronald Reagan won reelection in November 1984 by a landslide, beating his opponent by 18% and taking 49 states.

This came to my attention this comment and this picture from 1985:



A 6.9% unemployment rate represented a "five-year low"! That's how bad employment was under Reagan.

In fact, the "average unemployment rate under Biden is lower than the lowest unemployment rate during the Reagan 'boom.'"

(And the labor force participation rate is as high as it's ever been in the past 25 years -- and higher than at any point in Reagan's presidency.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Breaking news! Merrick Garland has a sense of humor.

[N.E. Brigand]

Heather Long yesterday noted that a new Federal Reserve survey (conducted annually) that finds that 72% of Americans say they're doing OK or better -- which is down just three points from where it was for much of Donald Trump's presidencies -- but the number who say the local economy is doing well is 42%, which is fifteen to twenty points lower than it was in 2017-2020, and the number who say the national economy is doing well is 22%, which is twenty to thirty points lower than in those years.



So people think they're personally doing about as well as ever, but that others are doing poorly. More evidence that people are not basing their views of the economy on their own situations but on what they're being falsely told about other people's situations.

[N.E. Brigand]

"Stocks Rebound as Consumers Revise Inflation Path."

Equities extended gains as University of Michigan data showed US consumers expect prices to climb at a 3.3% annual rate over the next year, down from the 3.5% that was expected earlier in the month. In April, respondents expected year-ahead inflation of 3.2%.

“After further review, the consumer is not as pessimistic about the inflation trajectory,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “What we learned from this final estimate from UofM is consumer spending could slow, easing up inflationary pressures from the demand side of the economy.”

That survey also found that consumer sentiment rose about 2.5% from the previous month.

[N.E. Brigand]

Thursday was the busiest day ever at Atlanta's Hartsville-Jackson Airport -- already the busiest airport not only in the United States but in the world -- as the previous record of 104,174 passengers set on February 4, 2019 (right after that year's Super Bowl, held in Atlanta) -- was exceeded by more than six percent: 110,000 passengers passed through the airport on Thursday in advance of the holiday weekend. And at last report at 5 p.m. on Friday, it looked like the new record was likely to fall after just one day.

And yet people think that the U.S. is in a recession?

[N.E. Brigand]

Last week, President Biden announced that he was working with Congress to have Kenya designated a "major non-NATO ally" of the United States -- Kenya would be the first sub-Saharan nation to be so designated -- and he met with President William Ruto, who has led Kenya since 2022 (after having served as that country's first elected vice president: that position had previously been appointed). Biden added, "We are launching a new era of economic cooperation between Kenya and America," and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation will be announcing new investments in Kenya.



- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Meanwhile, here are more comparisons of inflation under Ronald Reagan and Joe Biden:





Note that there also was a big recession for half of Reagan's first term. That was not the case under Biden.

[N.E. Brigand]

The latest U.S. consumer confidence report is out. Forecasters were expecting it to be 96. It came in at 102.

What do those numbers mean? Well per Wikpedia: 

In the United States, The Conference Board, an independent economic research organization, issues monthly measures of consumer confidence based on 5,000 households. Such measurement is indicative of the consumption component level of the gross domestic product. The Federal Reserve looks at the CCI when determining interest rate changes.

Consumer confidence is defined by The Conference Board as the degree of optimism on the state of the United States economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Country-by-country analysis indicates huge variance around the globe. In an interconnected global economy, tracking international consumer confidence is a lead indicator of economic trends.

The consumer confidence index started in 1967 and is benchmarked to 1985 = 100. The index is calculated each month on the basis of a household survey of consumers' opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy. Opinions on current conditions make up 40% of the index, with expectations of future conditions comprising the remaining 60%. In the glossary on its website, The Conference Board defines the Consumer Confidence Survey as "a monthly report detailing consumer attitudes and buying intentions, with data available by age, income and region".

Each month, The Conference Board surveys 5,000 US households. The survey consists of five questions that ask the respondents' opinions about the following:[6]

• Current business conditions
• Business conditions for the next six months
• Current employment conditions
• Employment conditions for the next six months
• Total family income for the next six months

Survey participants are asked to answer each question as "positive", "negative" or "neutral." The preliminary results from the consumer confidence survey are released on the last Tuesday of each month at 10am EST.

Does this index tell us anything about a president's electoral changes? What jumps out at me is the benchmark of 100 was set in 1985, the first year of Ronald Reagan's second term, after he won in a landslide with his "Morning in America" campaign, and the index is slightly higher than that now. Where did it stand at each presidential election since 1967? The numbers below are my estimates based on a graph, because I can't find a table.

Nov. 1968 -- 132 -- Incumbent party loses: former Vice President Richard Nixon (R) defeats Vice President Humbert Humphrey (D)
Nov. 1972 -- 108 -- Incumbent party wins: President Nixon defeats Sen. George McGovern (D)
Nov. 1976 -- 96 -- Incumbent party loses: Governor Jimmy Carter (D) defeats President Gerald Ford (R)
Nov. 1980 -- 70 -- Incumbent party loses: former Governor Ronald Reagan (R) defeats President Carter
Nov. 1984 -- 97 -- Incumbent party wins: President Reagan defeats former Vice President Walter Mondale (D)
Nov. 1988 -- 115 -- Incumbent party wins: Vice President George H.W. Bush (R) defeats Governor Mike Dukakis (D)
Nov. 1992 -- 66 -- Incumbent party loses: former Governor Bill Clinton (D) defeats Vice President George H.W. Bush (R) and Ross Perot (I)
Nov. 1996 -- 125 -- Incumbent party wins: President Clinton defeats Senator Bob Dole (R) and Ross Perot (I)
Nov. 2000 -- 100 -- Incumbent party loses: Governor George W. Bush (R) defeats Vice President Al Gore (D), sort of
Nov. 2004 -- 85 -- Incumbent party wins: President Bush defeats Senator John Kerry (D)
Nov. 2008 -- 50 -- Incumbent party loses: Senator Barack Obama (D) defeats Senator John McCain (R)
Nov. 2012 -- 72 -- Incumbent party wins: President Obama defeats former Governor Mitt Romney (R)
Nov. 2016 -- 110 -- Incumbent party loses: Donald Trump (R) defeats former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D), sort of
Nov. 2020 -- 90 -- Incumbent party loses: former Vice President Joe Biden (D) defeats President Trump

I don't think that helps much. Probably I should be looking at the trend over the previous several months before each election.

As noted above, there are two underlying surveys, both of which likewise are indexed to 100 -- and at present, they vary widely. The Present Situation Index is at 143, but the Expectations Index is at 75. At that split has been in place since mid-2021. In other words, for three straight years, people have viewed their current situation as quite good (holding between 140 and 160), but they expect conditions to soon get worse (holding between 70 and 90). How long can that go on?