Caring about Africa

[Jnyusa]

To the list of things necessary for self-sustained development I would add a good banking system. I'd put that high on the list.

Meanwhile, I'm hoping someone here can explain to me the logic of what is happening in Zimbabwe.

Mugabe seems to have lost the election. He is not going to step down, as I thought. That was apparently speculation. The most he can hope for is that neither he nor the opposition received 50% of the votes, because then they can have a run-off election, and he, being President, can postpone that for up to three months, which should give him plenty of time to launch a campaign of terror.

In fact, the campaign of terror has already begun, BUT ... it is aimed at White farmers, at driving them off their land so that the land can be appropriated by ... whom? Not clear, exactly. His supporters, I suppose, but they're not the ones who failed to vote for him. Farmers are being given 4-10 hours to clear off their land or face execution. Them and all their employees, who are Black, I presume. These are farms that house perhaps 150 families, and the whole lot is being evicted or else executed.

Now, I heard on npr yesterday evening that Mugabe used this same tactic after the 2000 election. He launched a campaign of terror against White farmers. And I am trying to figure out how the deuce this helps him with the fact that he lost the election. The strategy doesn't fit the problem at all, that I can see. Though I do recall that Zimbabwe had a very bloody transition to majority rule. So maybe this is what passes for a diversion in Zimbabwe? The solution to every governance crisis is to kill all the White people? Is he thinking that by creating a crisis of violence he can invoke marshall law and preclude announcing election results?

Anyone else able to figure out what this is about?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Jn, there is no logic to what is happening in Zimbabwe. Any attempt to find any is futile.

[Faramond]

I didn't think there were any white farmers left in Zimbabwe.

[Jnyusa]

I didn't think so either, Faramond, but apparently there are.

Voronwë, I've got to go back and read up on the original switch to majority rule. Didn't Mugabe run against Mbuto in the very first presidential election? I seem to recall England and the US strongly supporting Mugabe's candidacy, but it's been so long ago that I'm afraid I've confused Zimbabwe with another African country. How long has it been since Zimbabwe made sense, I wonder.

eta: no, it was Nkomo that he ran against. Mobuto (misspelled above) was Zaire.

[Griffon64]

All the news about Zimbabwe that one can handle:

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/Zimbabwe/Home

Zimbabwe is a growing problem for South Africa, which has to deal with the influx of refugees. Xenophobia is becoming more pronounced in townships where the locals resent the competition for jobs that the immigrants represent, not to mention the increased crime rates.

Refugees:

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/Zim ... 65,00.html

Sadly, with official unemployment hovering in the 20% in South Africa, the country is not that well-equipped to deal with the desperate.

There are still very few white farmers left, but I guess most of them will be really gone now. Some have gone north to Zambia, some to South Africa.

[Jnyusa]

Thanks, Griff!

[Griffon64]

You know, I can't even wrap my head around figures like this. To think I thought it was monstrous when inflation in Zimbabwe hit 1,000% -

http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/d ... 25_2307023

[River]

I'm not even sure what to say in the face of something like that. The whole situation in Zimbabwe has been making my head spin for at least a year. I really don't get what's going on there at all. Any of it. But, regarding the ongoing inflation, how did it start and how can it stop?

[Holbytla]

I'm pretty ignorant of the situation as well.
This is from the CIA World Factbook;

The UK annexed Southern Rhodesia from the [British] South Africa Company in 1923. A 1961 constitution was formulated that favored whites in power. In 1965 the government unilaterally declared its independence, but the UK did not recognize the act and demanded more complete voting rights for the black African majority in the country (then called Rhodesia). UN sanctions and a guerrilla uprising finally led to free elections in 1979 and independence (as Zimbabwe) in 1980. Robert MUGABE, the nation's first prime minister, has been the country's only ruler (as president since 1987) and has dominated the country's political system since independence. His chaotic land redistribution campaign, which began in 2000, caused an exodus of white farmers, crippled the economy, and ushered in widespread shortages of basic commodities. Ignoring international condemnation, MUGABE rigged the 2002 presidential election to ensure his reelection. The ruling ZANU-PF party used fraud and intimidation to win a two-thirds majority in the March 2005 parliamentary election, allowing it to amend the constitution at will and recreate the Senate, which had been abolished in the late 1980s. In April 2005, Harare embarked on Operation Restore Order, ostensibly an urban rationalization program, which resulted in the destruction of the homes or businesses of 700,000 mostly poor supporters of the opposition, according to UN estimates. President MUGABE in June 2007 instituted price controls on all basic commodities causing panic buying and leaving store shelves empty for months. In October 2007, Constitutional Amendment 18 came into effect allowing for harmonized presidential and parliamentary elections, shortening the length of the presidential term to five years, and moving up the date for parliamentary elections. General elections are expected in March 2008.

[Túrin Turambar]

I'm not even sure what to say in the face of something like that. The whole situation in Zimbabwe has been making my head spin for at least a year. I really don't get what's going on there at all. Any of it. But, regarding the ongoing inflation, how did it start and how can it stop?

In Rhodesia, the white minority had owned most of the farms and businesses. When Mugabe threw them out, many of them went bust and the productive output of the economy went down by something close to half. At the same time, he began printing money to pay for Government projects. As millions flowed into the shrinking economy, the value of money plummeted. Inflation is, after all, the money supply increasing faster than the value of goods and services in an economy. Jnyusa could probably give you a better answer than that, but that’s my understanding.

How can it stop? I don’t know.

[River]

So I asked S. I figured that since he lived through a period of hyper-inflation he might have some insight. He wasn't particularily helpful, but he did tell me that the inflation in Serbia ended when the guy in charge of the financial system closed the mint. Economic recovery was and has been harder, but ending the inflation was that simple. At least for Serbia.

[Jnyusa]

Yes, Lord M. is right about the cause of inflation. And ending inflation really is that simple. The difficult part is living through the inevitable recession that follows such measures.

[River]

Okay...

So what's Mugabe's reason for allowing this disaster in Zimbabwe to continue?

[Jnyusa]

That's what I'm trying to figure out, River. It makes no sense to me. Unless he really is just deranged.

[Túrin Turambar]

He said a little while ago he was determined to keep printing money. I can't see any sort of rational explanation for that, unless he's sacked/driven off/eaten all his economists and is simply winging economic policy based on what makes sense to him.

[eborr]

personally as far as Mugabe is concerned the economy doesn't matter, all that does is power, my best guess as to what happended is that Mugabe has had to dispense political favours to remain in power, at individual and at group level, at individual level to retain control of the police and the armed forces and at the group level to manage the dsaffected, the consequence of this is that in order to curry favour he had to appropriate farms and businesses, and keep the wovets in line by blaming the colonial powers. At the heart of this there is also the ethnic/tribal problem betwen the Shona and the Matabele, which is a card he has played already.

[yovargas]

I don't know about in other news media but NPR has been doing great reporting on the events in Zimbabwe almost every day. That whole situation fascinates me more than this sort of thing usually does (monkeysphere and all that). The whole thing is so mad!! NPR just did an interview with a government representative and it made it perfectly clear that those men in power are way out of touch and out of control.

[Túrin Turambar]

It's terrible news. A lot of us were really hoping that we'd see the end of Mugabe this time. He lost the election, but just used violence to force the opposition to withdraw and declared that only God will remove him from power. Not surprising, but very dissapointing.

[solicitr]

NPR just did an interview with a government representative and it made it perfectly clear that those men in power are way out of touch and out of control.

I heard it too, and was nostalgically reminded of what *real* government lying is like. I haven't heard such a string of baldfaced whoppers since old Baghdad Bob.

[yovargas]

What disturbed me most, soli, was that I got the distinct feeling that he fully believed all his own rationalizations.