It is currently Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:02 am

All times are UTC




Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 98 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:54 pm 
Offline
Feeling grateful
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:41 am
Posts: 33491
I probably should and will change the name of this thread, but I can't think of anything more apt from my point of view. Justice Kennedy has announced his resignation, meaning that Trump will be able to name his replacement, and McConnell will be able to ram it through the Senate before the next Congress. This means, among many other things, that abortion will again be illegal in this country very soon. And probably same-sex marriage, as well.

Disaster!

_________________
Woods is most felt. Nice! it's gentle on your mind.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Disaster!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:33 pm 
Offline
Lán de Grás
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 3:54 pm
Posts: 3699
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:
This means, among many other things, that abortion will again be illegal in this country very soon. And probably same-sex marriage, as well.

Is that your best guess, or an absolute certainty?

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Disaster!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:54 pm 
Offline
Feeling grateful
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:41 am
Posts: 33491
My best guess. But if he nominates someone similar to Gorsuch and he is confirmed (I say "he" because I seriously doubt that Trump will nominate a woman) it would be a near-certainty.

_________________
Woods is most felt. Nice! it's gentle on your mind.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Disaster!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:59 pm 
Online
2018 Fitbit Balrog*
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 4:03 pm
Posts: 11160
:(

WTF could he not retire in the Obama years??

_________________
*title copyright: Teremia

'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude (as Merry)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Disaster!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:05 pm 
Offline
Feeling grateful
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:41 am
Posts: 33491
Well, Scalia passed away in the Obama years and Obama still wasn't able to replace him. Kennedy's replacement would largely be a moot point if Merrick Garland was on the court instead of Gorsuch.

_________________
Woods is most felt. Nice! it's gentle on your mind.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:16 pm 
Online
2018 Fitbit Balrog*
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 4:03 pm
Posts: 11160
Since the timing of retirement can be chosen, I’m thinking like something early 2013.

This is horrible. Just horrible.

_________________
*title copyright: Teremia

'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude (as Merry)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:27 pm 
Offline
Feeling grateful
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:41 am
Posts: 33491
Really, the only way that this resignation will not lead to the end of legalized abortion and same-sex marriage would be if Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski refuse to confirm a nominee that is not committed to upholding Roe v. Wade and Obergefell v. Hodges, which is think is quite unlikely.

_________________
Woods is most felt. Nice! it's gentle on your mind.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:18 am 
Offline
not something I would recommend
User avatar

Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2005 11:13 pm
Posts: 13198
Location: Florida
Is he resigning right away? If he waited till after the midterms, the Dems could at least maybe block any really extreme nominations....

_________________
everything happens so much

Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:29 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:06 am
Posts: 2227
July 31. Yes, this is disaster.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:47 am 
Offline
Meanwhile...
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 10:31 pm
Posts: 13709
Location: Out on the banks
McConnell already said he isn't going to wait until the midterms.

Is there any explanation for the urgency of his retirement?

_________________
Image
‘There’s no greys, only white that’s got grubby. I’m surprised you don’t know that. And sin, young man, is when you treat people as things. Including yourself. That’s what sin is.’
‘It’s a lot more complicated than that -’
‘No. It ain’t. When people say things are a lot more complicated than that, they means they’re getting worried that they won’t like the truth. People as things, that’s where it starts.’
Terry Pratchett, Carpe Jugulum


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:12 am 
Online
2018 Fitbit Balrog*
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 4:03 pm
Posts: 11160
Do such SCOTUS rulings get overturned easily? I Mean, when they passed, they became law, no?

_________________
*title copyright: Teremia

'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude (as Merry)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:46 am 
Offline
Feeling grateful
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:41 am
Posts: 33491
Frelga wrote:
Is there any explanation for the urgency of his retirement?


The Kennedy watch has been going on for several terms now. Last year many thought he was going to retire when he did not initially hire new clerks. I think he just decided it was time. He is, after all, 83 years old, and he has been on the court for 30 years. That is a long time.


Inanna wrote:
Do such SCOTUS rulings get overturned easily? I Mean, when they passed, they became law, no?


Justices are supposed follow precedent under the doctrine of stare decisis unless they determine that the previous decision was clearly incorrect. For instance, the decision of Plessy v. Ferguson, which held that segregation was legal if it was "separate-but-equal" was overturned in the landmark Brown v. Board of Education case. I'm sure that to conservatives, overturning Roe v. Wade would be considered equivalent to that.

_________________
Woods is most felt. Nice! it's gentle on your mind.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:15 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 6:01 pm
Posts: 1033
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:
This means, among many other things, that abortion will again be illegal in this country very soon. And probably same-sex marriage, as well.


How confident are you in those predictions?

_________________
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen."
-- Samuel Adams


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:54 pm 
Offline
Wrong within normal parameters
User avatar

Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 9:59 am
Posts: 4436
Location: The other side of Michigan
To actually make abortion and/or gay marriage illegal nationwide would require new bills from Congress, would it not? I think either one would be difficult to get through even now, and even if the Supreme Court promised to stay out of the way afterwards.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:08 pm 
Offline
Feeling grateful
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:41 am
Posts: 33491
Cenedril_Gildinaur wrote:
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:
This means, among many other things, that abortion will again be illegal in this country very soon. And probably same-sex marriage, as well.


How confident are you in those predictions?


I'm going to say probably 70-30 for abortion and 50-50 for same-sex marriage. Of course, that is only a rough estimate. I think it largely comes down to whether Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are willing to buck the GOP leadership and reject a strongly anti-abortion nominee. And even if they did, vulnerable Democratic senators like Manchin and Heitkamp might vote to confirm. I think it would be harder to overturn Obergefell than Roe because public opinion has turned so sharply. Normally, a decision that has been in place for as long as Roe has would be due more deference, but I think Roe is the exception to that, as strongly criticized as it has been all along.


And of course as Dave points out, it is not that abortion or same-sex marriage will be illegal nationwide. Rather it will be on a state-wide basis. CNN's legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin predicted that abortion will be illegal in 20 states within 18 months. That sounds about right to me.

_________________
Woods is most felt. Nice! it's gentle on your mind.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:08 pm 
Offline
not something I would recommend
User avatar

Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2005 11:13 pm
Posts: 13198
Location: Florida
Dave_LF wrote:
To actually make abortion and/or gay marriage illegal nationwide would require new bills from Congress, would it not? I think either one would be difficult to get through even now, and even if the Supreme Court promised to stay out of the way afterwards.



A more precise statement would be that the future court would allow individual states to make abortion or same-sex marriage illegal.

eta - I'm less worried about marriage as I think that ship has largely sailed. As I recall, it has majority support even among Reps. Even if a few states pursue laws to not perform them, I doubt any would pass laws to not acknowledge marriages performed elsewhere, which would make it easy to get around.

_________________
everything happens so much

Image


Last edited by yovargas on Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:15 pm 
Offline
Wrong within normal parameters
User avatar

Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 9:59 am
Posts: 4436
Location: The other side of Michigan
Yes, that I could see.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:54 pm 
Online
2018 Fitbit Balrog*
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 4:03 pm
Posts: 11160
Yes, I can see that. Women, especially worn in red states will be hammered. I forgot about the state thing - that seems like a blessing now.

_________________
*title copyright: Teremia

'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude (as Merry)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:36 pm 
Online
Living in hope
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:43 am
Posts: 39220
Location: Sailing the luminiferous aether
Not all blue states yet have solid abortion rights laws—New York is apparently one of them. There will be some scrambling this year.

_________________
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:38 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:10 am
Posts: 5865
I recall how aggravating it was when the Senate refused to consider Merrick, and how infuriating their supposed rationale was. I thought it was plainly wrong of them not to do their constitutional duty and consider Obama's nominee. Democrats all railed against this (ineffectually). But now I've received at least a dozen emails from leftist activist groups with petitions urging Democrats to propose the same thing -- no SCOTUS hearings until after the election (although I don't know that Dems have the power to actually prevent hearings, as the Republicans did).

It seems to me if the claims of undermining the constitutional process were valid then, they are equally valid now, and people should not be urging Congress to double down on a bad precedent. I just wondered what the rest of you thought about that. Even though it's a disaster in the making, shouldn't we urge respect for the constitutional process?

edit

make that a half dozen

_________________
Avatar photo by Richard Lykes, used with permission.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 98 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: RoseMorninStar and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group