2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[N.E. Brigand]

In the Republican primary contest eight months ago, Youngkin ran ads extolling his connections to Donald Trump.

And then after securing the nomination, he mostly stopped mentioning Trump. And that was apparently good enough for Trump-shy swing voters.

[N.E. Brigand]

The plural of anecdote is not data. But here are some things that voters in Prince William County, VA, told a Washington Post reporter today about why they voted for Glenn Youngkin:

"'I kind of like the old style of school,' one stepdad of school students said. 'I still believe in the American flag, the Pledge of Allegiance & God.'"

"A Latina mom who plans on sending her 4-year-old to private school to avoid public school education about race, which she believes motivates bullying: 'Parents don’t really have a choice.... They are adding new things to history that children her age don’t really need to know.'"

"A Black dad who's homeschooling two of his kids said his older son recently brought home an assignment on Abraham Lincoln that troubled him, though he couldn't say why. 'I'd like to not vote for the guy who said it's not the parents' responsibility to take care of their kids.'"

"One man supported Youngkin's anti-abortion stance, saying he once conceived a child with a woman who chose an abortion. 'I don’t know what my first child would have looked like because of a woman's right to choose.... I want to be able to go to court & say 'I want that baby.'"

"Another voter said he opposes mask and vaccine requirements. 'I'm forced to vote Republican, grudgingly. I don’t even like this guy,' he said, saying he supports abortion rights and finds Youngkin 'self-righteous.' But: 'I'm tired of the mandates.'"

- - - - - - - - -
Republicans also won the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races in Virginia, as well as flipping the Virginia House.

And turnout was quite high.

[N.E. Brigand]

Meanwhile, there were three notable referendums concerning police on the ballot tonight.

In Minneapolis, a ballot initiative backed by progressives that would have replaced the police dept. with a public safety dept. has failed.

In Austin, a ballot initiative backed by conservatives that would increase police funding is failing.

In Cleveland, a ballot initiative backed by progressive that would increase police oversight is passing.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

While it appears likely that Youngkin will win, I don't believe that any major outlets have called the race, have they?

Republican Jack Ciattarelli also leads incumbent Democratic NJ Governor Phil Murphy, though that race is definitely too close to call.

[N.E. Brigand]

Murphy probably wins reelection in NJ by about 5 points. Polls had him ahead by 8 points.

While the Youngkin victory in VA hasn't been called, I think it's assured. And he'll win by about 2 points. Polls had him ahead by 1 point.

One bit of not terrible news in VA is that Democrats appear to have held onto just enough seats to end up in a 50-50 tie with Repubicans in the state House.

And there is no tiebreaking provision in the VA House. So Republican efforts to undue the past two years of Democrats controlling both the governorship and the legislature will have to rely on executive actions by Youngkin.

[N.E. Brigand]

One bit of not terrible news in VA is that Democrats appear to have held onto just enough seats to end up in a 50-50 tie with Repubicans in the state House.

Ouch.

Overnight that changed, and it now appears the Virginia House will have 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats.

[N.E. Brigand]

ABC was the first network to call the race for Youngkin, at about midnight.

- - - - - - - - - -
Meanwhile, Nate Cohn of the New York Times notes that last night's results reinforce a point that many people still don't believe:

The narrative has often been about Trump's electoral invincibility, but that's a function of extraordinarily low expectations.

There's plenty of reason to think he under-performs vs. generic establishment Republicans.

You can look at it in a number of ways:
--Trump under-performed the fundamentals in both 2016 and 2020.
--Trump ran behind Republicans in the US House in both 2016 and 2020.
--Trump's approval/favorability ratings were always horrible; he probably couldn't have beaten someone other than Clinton.

And last night, Youngkin obviously did much better than Trump had done in Virginia.

[N.E. Brigand]

Meanwhile, there were three notable referendums concerning police on the ballot tonight.

In Minneapolis, a ballot initiative backed by progressives that would have replaced the police dept. with a public safety dept. has failed.

In Austin, a ballot initiative backed by conservatives that would increase police funding is failing.

In Cleveland, a ballot initiative backed by progressive that would increase police oversight is passing.

Northwest Minneapolis, where crime is worst, saw the greatest opposition to replacing the police department.

[N.E. Brigand]

Republicans also won the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races in Virginia, as well as flipping the Virginia House.

And turnout was quite high.

Turnout was so high that the losing candidate, McAuliffe, will end up with more votes than any gubernatorial candidate in Virginia has ever received...

...except for the number of votes received by his opponent, Youngkin.

A lot of people who voted for Biden a year ago voted for Youngkin yesterday.

The problem isn't motivating the Democratic base to vote so much as convincing swing voters to vote Democratic rather than Republican.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

One can debate it back and forth and obviously there is no way to know for sure, but I do believe that had the "bi-partisan" infrastructure bill not been blockaded by progressives in the House it would have been easier to convince those swing voters to vote Democratic rather than Republican (and yes, I know all the reasons why the progressives in the House and Biden himself wanted to vote on the two bills together).

[Dave_LF]

Hypothesis: Societies have a tendency to repeat the same mistakes at intervals that track pretty closely with the average life expectancy at the time. It'll be less going forward, but right now, in rich countries, that works out to something in the 75 to 85 year range. Which means one might predict that we're currently at high risk of repeating the mistakes of the late 30s and early 40s. Just throwing that out there, apropos of nothing.

[N.E. Brigand]

One can debate it back and forth and obviously there is no way to know for sure, but I do believe that had the "bi-partisan" infrastructure bill not been blockaded by progressives in the House it would have been easier to convince those swing voters to vote Democratic rather than Republican (and yes, I know all the reasons why the progressives in the House and Biden himself wanted to vote on the two bills together).

Joe Manchin says the lesson of today's loss is that they need to take more time before passing the reconciliation bill.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That makes about as much sense as waiting for JFK, Jr.

[N.E. Brigand]

Hypothesis: Societies have a tendency to repeat the same mistakes at intervals that track pretty closely with the average life expectancy at the time. It'll be less going forward, but right now, in rich countries, that works out to something in the 75 to 85 year range. Which means one might predict that we're currently at high risk of repeating the mistakes of the late 30s and early 40s. Just throwing that out there, apropos of nothing.

Well, let's hope not, but it's a possibility worth bearing in mind.

There is another pattern at play specifically relevant to last night. As noted here, in the year following eleven of the past thirteen presidential elections, the president's party lost the governorship in Virginia:

1972-73: Nixon (R) retains WH; Godwin (R) WINS by 1.2 [exception #1]
1976-77: Carter (D) wins WH; Howell (D) LOSES by 13
1980-81: Reagan (R) wins WH; Coleman (R) LOSES by 7
1984-85: Reagan (R) retains WH; Durrette (R) LOSES by 10
1988-89: Bush (R) wins WH; Coleman (R) LOSES by <1
1992-93: Clinton (D) wins WH; Terry (D) LOSES by 18
1996-97: Clinton (D) retains WH; Beyer (D) LOSES by 13
2000-01: Bush (R) wins WH; Earley (R) LOSES by 5
2004-05: Bush (R) retains WH; Kilgore (R) LOSES by 6
2008-09: Obama (D) wins WH; Deeds (D) LOSES by 17
2012-13: Obama (D) retains WH: McAuliffe (D) WINS by 2.5 [exception #2]
2016-17: Trump (R) wins WH; Gillespie (R) LOSES by 9
2020-21: Biden (D) wins WH; McAuliffe (D) LOSES by 2-3

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I guess McAuliffe only gets to be the exception once.

[N.E. Brigand]

CNN chyron: "Democrats Face Reckoning After Misjudging Nation's Mood"

CNN website: "Biden Arrives Back in D.C. to a Nightmare"

As someone pointed out in response, at the same point in George W. Bush's presidency, and two months after 9/11, Democrats flipped the governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia, so clearly Bush's presidency was doomed.

[N.E. Brigand]

Hillbilly Elegy author and supposed man of the people J.D. Vance, who is seeking the Republican nomination for Senate here in Ohio, tweeted this today:

Want to have dinner with me and Peter Thiel? Donate $10,800 by tomorrow and I’ll send you the details.

This will be a small group, with good food and better company.

Link to donate: [link omitted]

If that's too much, see the next tweet...

The siren emojis appear in the original.

Thiel, who is apparently Vance's main financial backer, is the billionaire co-founder of Paypal and the data analytics firm palantír.* (He was also Facebook's first outside investor.)

*Amusingly, the name autocorrects in this forum to lowercase with an acute accent mark above the i.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[N.E. Brigand]

Democrats would probably have done better, maybe enough so that McAuliffe would have won Virginia, if only the election were held next week rather than this week.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Do you really think so?

House leadership strategy at risk of collapsing as Pelosi presses for infrastructure vote