Hal, this article was in today's Boston Globe:
How McCain Can Pull it Off
Election Predictions
Oh, I think if McCain wins, it will be despite a massive loss in popular vote, which is why I think there will be chaos.Primula Baggins wrote:Well, Obama just took Dixville Notch, NH, 15-6. But that isn't determinative; Bush won in '04 and Kerry took the state.
We'll see what we see, Hal.I do want to point out that a 4-point popular vote margin would probably preclude a loss in the electoral vote. But again, we'll see.
About a third of us have already voted, too.
As for the "third" that have voted already... I think that's going to be an interesting situation. I'm not sure how that will influence news organizations calling things. From what I can tell, all the information about that early vote is based on estimates by party insiders making estimates due to thier efforts to get out the vote. I don't personally think these figures are accurate, but who knows...
The only real hope I have for conservative victory... is that going into every election since '92, the expected result was dread for conservatives, and yet they have come out ahead every time except in '06.
What will be will be. I'm more worried about chaos due to irregularities than I am about any results...
yes, I know. This isn't very farfetched for people that disbelieve the polls.
Even if McCain loses, the critical piece is the level of 60 in the senate. If the republicans can at least filibuster nightmarish legislation, then I'm not too concerned. If the Dems can do anything they want... then I feel we're in for a world of hurt... for two years anyway.
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Primula Baggins
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I don't know where you get your early voting statistics, Hal, but the ones I'm talking about don't come from "party insiders," they come from the secretaries of state in the states with early voting. They aren't estimates, they're counts of ballots received.
As of Monday, 24.4 million people had voted; 57.3% were Democrats and 42.7% were Republicans.
Link
As of Monday, 24.4 million people had voted; 57.3% were Democrats and 42.7% were Republicans.
Link
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Túrin Turambar
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They generally do, and yet republicans still win, which means you shouldn't over sample for polls. You should just take what you get.Lord_Morningstar wrote:But Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans this year.halplm wrote:They over sample democrats to start with.yovargas wrote:hal, why do you believe that the polls are massively distorted for Obama?
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Primula Baggins
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Also, "Republicans still win" may no longer apply.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Túrin Turambar
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ArathornJax
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