The Clegg phenomenon and the 2010 UK Election

[Aravar]

As a final thought, it’s possible that the next Prime Minister of the U.K. will be someone other than Brown, Cameron or Clegg.

Forgive my ignorance, but how would that be possible?

The old saying is that the Queen's government must continue.

The Queen appoints the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister is ultimately the person who can carry the Budget, which raises taxes so that that government can carry on, through the House of Commons. In most elections that will clearly be the leader of the majority party in the House.

Where there is no majority party the starting point is that Gordon Brown remains PM until the budget or another confidence measure is voted down in the House. However if it is clear that such measures will not pass he would resign.

It could be the case, for example, that Labour and the Liberals are prepared to form a coalition but not with Gordon Brown leading it. That coalition could get its business through the House. In those circumstances Gordon Brown would resign as PM but advise the Queen as to who he thinks could command a majority in the House, say Alan Johnson, the current Home Secretary, or Alistair Darling, the current Chancellor of the Exchequer. That person would then be appointed by the Queen.

These negotiaitons could be further complicated by internal party rules as to leadership of the parliamentary party.

[Túrin Turambar]

It’s now early afternoon, with 9 seats left to declare. Conservatives on 302 (up 94), Labour on 256 (down 88), the Lib Dems on 56 (down 5). The final swing seems to have been about 5%, which is pretty hefty, leaving the Conservatives on 36% of the popular vote to Labour’s 29%.

BTW - have you made a thread about Australia's election system? If you've already written one up, I'd like to at least skim it.

Here

Basically, 150-member House of Representatives drawn from single-member electorates using preferential voting, and a 76-member Senate consisting of 12 members per State and 2 per territory elected through proportional representation.

Where there is no majority party the starting point is that Gordon Brown remains PM until the budget or another confidence measure is voted down in the House. However if it is clear that such measures will not pass he would resign.

A point lost on many people last night, including Nick Clegg apparently.

The Government continues until it is defeated on the floor of the House, the Prime Minister resigns or the Queen withdraws his commission (which hasn’t happened IIRC since the days of George III). Parliament chooses the Government, and it has not done so yet nor given an indication as to what it will look like. And unless or until it chooses a different government to the current one, the current one is still in power.

[Elentári]

David Cameron has reached out to the Liberal Democrats in an effort to form a government:

The Conservative leader said: "We need a government that reassures the international markets. We need policies that will bring economic recovery. And we need a government that understands that great change is needed in order to restore faith in our political system."
He said talks would begin with other parties. He said one option was to offer them reassurances about certain policy areas - then try to govern as a minority Conservative government.

But he said he was prepared to consider alternatives and it might be possible "to have stronger, more stable, more collaborative government than that".

"I want to make a big, open and comprehensive offer to the Liberal Democrats. I want us to work together in tackling our country's big and urgent problems - the debt crisis, our deep social problems and our broken political system," he said.

According to the BBC's political editor, Cameron had not ruled out a coalition, with places for Liberal Democrats in a Conservative-led government. But although there were doubts whether the Lib Dems would take them up on the offer, they might be prepared to let Mr Cameron govern by not voting down the Queen's Speech or budget - which would allow them not to be tainted by decisions they did not like.

With 648 out of 650 results declared, the Conservatives have 305 seats, Labour 258 and Lib Dems 57

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/ ... 667938.stm

[nerdanel]

Well, it looks like Cameron isn't willing even to dialogue with Clegg about the electoral revisions that are near-and-dear to the latter's heart, which may brighten Labour's prospects (even if not Brown's, specifically).

From the article that Elen posted:

Past practice under Britain's unwritten constitution sees the sitting prime minister in a hung parliament having the right to make the first attempt at forming a ruling coalition.

I don't fully understand the "unwritten constitution" idea, partly because of situations like this -- in which everyone seems to be discarding the unwritten past practice and doing what they want.

[Elentári]

Oh, Brown will stay on until he makes a deal or has exhausted his options...

The UK must always have a government, and until a new government is formed, the existing one carries on...like Ted Heath who remained PM for 4 days after the hung parliament in '74, trying to put together a coalition even though Labour had more seats.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/ ... 659878.stm

[nerdanel]

Oh, no, I understand that Brown will stay on for now. But it sounds as though (1) to have any vitality going forward, Labour needs to reach agreement with the Lib Dems; and (2) I've gotten the impression from some articles that it may be more palatable to the Lib Dems if Labour replaces Brown with someone else. That's what I meant.

[Elentári]

Oh, I see...

Though early indications from Clegg are that he supports the Tories having the first crack at forming a government because they have won the largest number of seats.

[Lidless]

Clegg said a couple of weeks ago he'd do a deal with the party with the most seats. Kinda put himself in a weak driving seat with the Conservatives since he's for (correctly) proportional representation and he's already honour-bound to do a deal with them after that - even if Brown has flagged that as an immediate (desperate) concession whilst the Conservatives have not. They have only promised a debate.

Oh what tangled webs...

[Lidless]

Nick Griffin is defeated. There isn't a violin in the world that's small enough.

Best quote. Ever.

[Túrin Turambar]

Past practice under Britain's unwritten constitution sees the sitting prime minister in a hung parliament having the right to make the first attempt at forming a ruling coalition.

I don't fully understand the "unwritten constitution" idea, partly because of situations like this -- in which everyone seems to be discarding the unwritten past practice and doing what they want.

The statement is not entirely true. Labour doesn’t have the first shot at forming a Government – they already have one. And they’ll continue to have one unless someone else can defeat them. British Constitutional law may be complex, but these conventions are fairly simple. By convention, the sovereign must appoint to the Cabinet the MPs that Parliament chooses. And until it indicates otherwise, they are the members of the Brown Government.

Clegg said a couple of weeks ago he'd do a deal with the party with the most seats. Kinda put himself in a weak driving seat with the Conservatives since he's for (correctly) proportional representation and he's already honour-bound to do a deal with them after that - even if Brown has flagged that as an immediate (desperate) concession whilst the Conservatives have not. They have only promised a debate.

Oh what tangled webs...

In the circumstances it seems more likely that the Lib Dems will simply abstain on supply motions rather than enter in a formal agreement with the Conservatives. I doubt that the broader left would ever forgive Nick Clegg, though.

Nick Griffin is defeated. There isn't a violin in the world that's small enough.

Best quote. Ever.

Yes. And George Galloway’s defeat gives me some satisfaction no matter what happens.

[nerdanel]

L_M - that makes more sense. Thanks for clarifying.

Of interest: But can he govern? from The Economist.

[Túrin Turambar]

Of interest: But can he govern? from The Economist.

The article makes the assumption that the next Government will be a Conservative minority government, which is not certain. Still, I think it’s reasonable. The political cycle is with the Conservatives at the moment, and I suspect that, were another election held, both Labour and the Lib Dems would suffer. This election will probably be remembered as a Conservative victory.

308 seats is such an awkward number, though, as Nate Silver pointed out in his commentary. This could go all the way to the Queen’s speech, which would be very messy indeed. And I doubt that this Parliament will last much more than a year no matter what happens.

Anyone know when the results of the Lib-Con talks will be known?

[Elentári]

Well, the Tories will hope for a deal to be struck before the markets open for trading on Monday, but the Lib Dems will not want to be pushed into anything in a hurry...

[eborr]

Clegg has always been a closet Tory for all his noises cf Tony Blair. What we have to hope is that the beard and sandals brigade will stick to their principles in whatever power-play Clegg tries to implement, unlike new labour grass roots during the Bliar years.

However the precedents are not good. In the first Scottish Assembly the Lib Dems were only too happy to concede manifesto promises to get their snouts in the trough in an alliance with new labour.

Whatever happens I expect that Cameron will want to go to the country quite soon, this will mean that he will have the excuse that he is probalby looking for not to implement the austerity measures they beleive they need, until he comes back with a stronger mandate.

As for Brown, I think he might make a really good leader of the opposition, his showing has been strong enough to ward off suggestions that he should be replaced as leader of the labour party.


He will be very well placed to pick at Tory inaction, and for all of Cameron's finese, his potential chancellor George Osbourne does not have the confidence of the city, and as the heir to a fortune rated around 1 billion pounds, he can certainly be accused in having a vested interest

[Elentári]

Gordon Brown has said he is stepping down as Labour Party leader.

Brown said he wanted a successor to be in place by the time of the party's conference in September and also said his party was to start formal talks with the Lib Dems.

He said if the national interest could be best served by a coalition between the Lib Dems and Labour he would "discharge that duty to form that government".

But he added that no party had won an overall majority in the UK general election and, as Labour leader, he had to accept that as a judgement on him.

Meanwhile talking are continuing between the Tories and Lib Dems with both sides optimistic and agreeing that progress has been made.. Clegg told the BBC he was "almost, almost" there on making a decision, having held private talks with Mr Cameron at lunchtime as well as a 30-minute phone conversation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/ ... 672859.stm

[eborr]

Unfortunately for Clegg the decision is not his to make, he needs a 75% vote from the Liberal National Executive in order to have his alliance with the Tories.

Earlier there was a noticeable waning in the confidence of his negotiating team after they had met with the Liberal Parliamentary Party who had told them that the offer Dave had made over voting reform was not enough.

Effectively the future of the Govt, could be decided by 7 stout, resolute and true, beardy sandal wearers.

[Túrin Turambar]

Gordon Brown has said he is stepping down as Labour Party leader.

Brown said he wanted a successor to be in place by the time of the party's conference in September and also said his party was to start formal talks with the Lib Dems.

It was pretty much inevitable; there was no future for Brown after Thursday's result. He was unlucky to become Prime Minister when he did. It makes it possible that the next PM will be an as-yet-unknown person as I suggested upthread. If so, they might survive for a full term, or their government may well be the shortest-lived in modern British history.

As for Clegg, he’s in a bind either way. He either supports an effectively defeated government to form a ‘coalition of the losers’ which wouldn’t have a majority anyway, or he does nothing or supports the Conservatives and lets his party’s ideological opponents into power. Paddy Ashdown wasn’t wrong when he said that a hung Parliament would be a curse for the Lib Dems. More from the Guardian on the ‘nightmare’ dilemma.

Regardless, he has committed to a decision by the end of today.

[Lidless]

The Lib Dems will not forge an alliance with Labour. They won fewer seats than the Conservatives, and if proportional representation / alternative voting system is the Lib Dem flagship - something that in the long-term will give them a greater number of seats - then as a matter of principle they cannot join Labour. A government made by the second and third party, not including the biggest? No.

Also, now with Brown going it would mean two prime ministers in a row that were not elected by the people. Too much, too much.

The Lib Dems have only been seen talking with Labour in order to extract more concessions out of the Conservatives - in particular on that electoral reform point. That they now have.

Painfully obvious, actually.

Under the alternative voting system (where if no party gets a majority on the first round of votes in a constituency, the second choice votes are included), the Lib Dems would have around 20% extra seats mainly at the expense of the the Conservatives.

What would have been interesting would be if the Conservatives had stuck to their guns and offered no such extra concession. Another election?

Love the Daily Mirror headline (the first time in my personal history, I think)
Con Dem Nation.

[eborr]

A few points

1 We don't elect a prime minister, we elect members of parliament, the notion that a prime minister has been/not been elected is nonsense

2. The total votes cast in favour of liberal/labour parties far exceeded those of the conservatives.

If there is not a labour/lib co-alition then the outcome will be a minority convservative Govt. with another election within six months, that will kill off the liberals because it will be a first past the post and opinions will have hardened

[Túrin Turambar]

It's a done deal apparently. Gordon Brown has resigned. The Queen will shortly send for David Cameron.