Health Care Reform

[Voronwë the Faithful]

You know at least two.

[River]

Maybe she missed some type of qualifier on that number, like that was the number of people who signed up the first day? Or maybe Glenn Beck was lying.

Or he had bad or old data.

In general, it's best to independently verify anything a pundit says.

[Frelga]

Anything anyone said, IMO, but pundits doubly so.

[Dave_LF]

I suppose to be fair, neither Beck or Norquist are in actual positions of power in government, even if each has their own fan base/influence. Have any elected officials made such statements that anyone's aware of?

I'm not aware of any; elected officials have to be more careful about what they say (not that that stops all of them; I wouldn't be surprised if there's something comparable to Norquist's statement out there). Political parties are kind of like the mob in reverse when you think about it. The godfathers are free to speak and act as they please, and it's the goons who have to keep their hands clean.

[Primula Baggins]

More than 9400 people/family units had signed up through the Washington state exchange as of 3 days ago. No one has yet signed up through Cover Oregon's exchange, because they announced last month that online signup wouldn't begin until October 15. We can browse all the plans, though, because you don't have to create an account to browse (that's been a barrier on the federal exchange and others, because the account creation process is overloaded or messed up).

People are signing up through agents and community partners, but I can't find a number for that.

So I'm not actually signed up yet, but I haven't yet tried, either. Still shopping around.

I expect a fairly smooth experience with the new insurance. The companies providing it are all familiar names. We don't qualify for any subsidies, so there's not the potential headache of a messup there. I expect other people will have trouble, especially those who've never had health insurance before, so no doubt those honeymoon poll numbers will bump down again. But in the long run, I predict that this will be very popular with those who have been on the private insurance market or uninsured.

I know it's popular with the 260,000-plus people who were notified last month that they would now be covered by the Oregon Health Plan, our Medicaid program.

People with employer-provided insurance will probably not notice much difference (a few new benefits)—until something happens that used to cost them their insurance, such as losing their jobs. People in that situation now will be able to compare the costs of COBRA with costs on the exchanges and make the best choice for their families.

[Erunáme]

When I read this comment from Dave I thought it was probably a bit of hyperbole but I guess not:

Of course they don't. Shutting down the federal government is their main long-term objective. Perhaps their only one.

I see you didn't watch that link I gave to the Maddow segment. You should watch that.

[tinwë]

I don't think any official numbers have been released for states whose exchanges are being run by the Federal government. There have been many glitches with the system so far, apparently. I have tried several times myself to set up an account and keep getting an error message.

[elfshadow]

Well, I hate to be the Republican wet blanket, here, but this *is* sort of the honeymoon period. People are just signing up right now, and feeling a flood of relief that they can be covered.

There will be snags and problems and frustration when it kicks in, and the approval rating might not be so high, then. Any new system has to work out its kinks. And it may never be exactly what everyone wants.

But it is better than the nothing we have had for so long, that's for sure.

You aren't being a wet blanket, you're being sensible! I anticipate there will not only be a lot of glitches, but it will take some time for most people to see a real change in their situation. It will take even longer for there to be a noticeable change in the health care system itself, and it will probably happen so slowly that people might not stop to think about it. I also believe that a lot more legislation and research will have to be put in place to address some of the deepest, most entrenched problems in the health care system. There will probably be many periods where people are unhappy with ACA, but my hope is that those periods will uncover additional problems that have a workable solution.

[yovargas]

As anybody who follows video games know, every online roll-out for large scale or popular products will have a ton of glitches early on no matter how experienced or talented the developer. It's normal and will stabilize itself after a while. Hopefully people are understanding and patient.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

You aren't being a wet blanket, you're being sensible! I anticipate there will not only be a lot of glitches, but it will take some time for most people to see a real change in their situation. It will take even longer for there to be a noticeable change in the health care system itself, and it will probably happen so slowly that people might not stop to think about it. I also believe that a lot more legislation and research will have to be put in place to address some of the deepest, most entrenched problems in the health care system. There will probably be many periods where people are unhappy with ACA, but my hope is that those periods will uncover additional problems that have a workable solution.

It would be easier if the two political parties could have a dialogue about improving it. But as long as one side is fixating entirely on getting rid of it, it is impossible to even have that conversation.

[Primula Baggins]

Maybe that will change. This process of increasing polarization can't continue without wrecking the country, so we have to hope it will change.

I wonder if another driver of the far right running farther right within the GOP is that the Democratic party has moved pretty far toward the center over the past few decades, meaning that it's harder to put a lot of distance between the two parties' positions. Obama is famously farther right than Republican President Eisenhower in the 1950s, for example.

But it used to be that you could find Republicans who were more liberal than some Democrats, and vice versa. Now the least conservative Republican is far more conservative than the least liberal Democrat. It doesn't help in trying to find common ground.

[elfshadow]

It would be easier if the two political parties could have a dialogue about improving it. But as long as one side is fixating entirely on getting rid of it, it is impossible to even have that conversation.

I completely agree. I think it will take a lot of time. But I don't think it will take as long for people to realize that they like the exchanges and the increased regulation of insurance companies, and it will soon become very difficult for the GOP to get rid of ACA. I think they know this, which is why the shutdown was a last-ditch effort on their part. Now that the legislation is actually being implemented, I do not anticipate that the efforts to defund it will last long. Of course, there is a strong possibility that I am overestimating the reasonableness of the more conservative Republicans. But I think eventually there will be no hope of repeal, and more opportunities to actually improve the bill will be presented.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I agree, and in odd sought of way, the shutdown/debt ceiling crisis has helped the process. The (completely predictable) glitchy opening of the exchanges has been relegated to a fairly minor story, while the pundits and reporters focus mostly on the political drama. By the time that is all resolved, things will likely be going smoother.

[Cerin]

An AP report just stated that the Pres. is meeting with Republicans and negotiating to end the shutdow, which he previously said he would not do. Perhaps he's willing to be extorted on everything but ACA.

[Dave_LF]

But it used to be that you could find Republicans who were more liberal than some Democrats, and vice versa. Now the least conservative Republican is far more conservative than the least liberal Democrat. It doesn't help in trying to find common ground.

IMO, the modern Republican agenda is anything but conservative. The Democrats are the closest thing we have to a conservative party. The Republicans are radicals.

[Passdagas the Brown]

Well, I hate to be the Republican wet blanket, here, but this *is* sort of the honeymoon period. People are just signing up right now, and feeling a flood of relief that they can be covered.

There will be snags and problems and frustration when it kicks in, and the approval rating might not be so high, then. Any new system has to work out its kinks. And it may never be exactly what everyone wants.

But it is better than the nothing we have had for so long, that's for sure.

I think it's worth mentioning that the ACA model is based on a Republican idea - one that scholars at the Heritage foundation once supported, and of course, one that Mitt Romney advanced as governor of Massachusetts.

In fact, I have a few Republican friends who, like you, see value in the ACA, and openly support it.

[Passdagas the Brown]

An AP report just stated that the Pres. is meeting with Republicans and negotiating to end the shutdow, which he previously said he would not do. Perhaps he's willing to be extorted on everything but ACA.

The President said he will not negotiate on the budget until the shutdown is ended. That is different than talking to the GOP about ending the shutdown, which is perfectly rational behavior.

[Cerin]

The President said he will not negotiate on the budget until the shutdown is ended. That is different than talking to the GOP about ending the shutdown, which is perfectly rational behavior.

I'm aware of that distinction. The report seemed to indicate that budget matters were being discussed as a way to end the shutdown.

I probably need to stop thinking about this now.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I suspect that the shutdown will end with a deal that involves budget cuts. What I have heard is that the House has offered as part of a deal to end the shutdown and avoid default to replace the across the board sequester cuts with entitlement cuts that Obama has previously supported, such as raising Medicare costs for better-off beneficiaries. I would not be surprised to see that become the basis of a deal.

[elfshadow]

I suspect that the shutdown will end with a deal that involves budget cuts. What I have heard is that the House has offered as part of a deal to end the shutdown and avoid default to replace the across the board sequester cuts with entitlement cuts that Obama has previously supported, such as raising Medicare costs for better-off beneficiaries. I would not be surprised to see that become the basis of a deal.

This seems like a sensible solution. I hope this is how the situation turns out.