2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[N.E. Brigand]

Here is the House Managers' trial brief. From my initial perusal it looks well done, particularly with regard to the specious argument that the Senate does not have jurisdiction to try a former president. Not that that will matter in the long run. The Senate Republicans will still latch on to that argument as an excuse to not convict without explicitly condoning the behavior.

https://beta.documentcloud.org/document ... ment-brief

Compare to Donald Trump's official reply which has "Unites States" in its first lines. I can only assume that's an homage to Trump famously slurring when he said "God blesh the United Shtatesh".

And twelve hours later, the Trump campaign has apparently decided just to leave up "Unites States": https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status ... 7126831105

Trump's brief also says that the House of Representatives rushed to impeach him. And yet Trump's team is also arguing that it's too late to try him?

- - - - - - - - - -
I like Chris Hayes's point, of which we've variations before, that conduct can be both entirely legal and a valid reason to remove someone from office (and ban them from holding office again):

There are all kinds of speech protected by the First Amendment that would be really really bad for the President to utter ... Using racist and anti-semitic expletives as part of common speech all the time, or saying "I think China should invade and annex the US" over and over, or "I am a literal Nazi who thinks Hitler was good." All protected by the First Amendment! All, I think, impeachable.

For that matter, just asking Mike Pence to violate the Constitution, all by itself, is grounds for conviction. Marcy Wheeler notes that the Dept. of Justice has started charging some of the insurrectionists with 18 USC 1512 for for interrupting the official proceeding of the vote certification. And that's basically what Trump asked Pence to do.

- - - - - - - - - -
Meanwhile, newly-elected Congresswoman Lauren Boebert of Colorado reimbursed herself $22,000 for mileage from campaign funds.

Her predecessor, Scott Tipton, also a Republican, had reimbursed himself less than $20,000 for mileage and all other travel expenses (about half from campaign funds and half from office funds) over a period of ten years.

- - - - - - - - - -
Attorney Lin Wood is being investigated in Georgia because he may voted illegally there. There's a woman serving five years in Texas for voting illegally in 2016. Here's hoping.

Also somehwere I saw that a large percentage of the insurrectionists who have been arrested didn't vote in November. Can't find the citation now though.

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The far right channel Newmax cut off Mike Lindell after he tried to push another phony voting machine conspiracy, and the show's host read a disclaimer. I think they're afraid of another Dominion lawsuit.

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The New York Times has published, as a work in progess with many gaps yet to fill, a precint-level map of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. One observer noted that this very large precinct in Maine stands out as having shifted notably toward Trump vs. the 2016 results:



The shift appears to be mainly due to a change in the precinct boundaries, but it's also worth noting that that precinct, which comprises the rural parts of Piscataquis County and is about three times larger than Rhode Island (pop. 1,059,000), had just 87 people who voted in last year's election. It wouldn't take very many votes to shift!

(Most of the precinct is Baxter State Park, location of Mount Katahdin, the northern terminus of the Appalachian Trail and just a glorious hike to the summit. Well worth a visit.)

This is obviously not the map that makes the point, but the Times project again shows that Trump gained the most in 2020 (vs. 2016) in urban areas. And yet when he falsely claims that fraud occurred, he's referring to those places!

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The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a new story about Republican voters who didn't turn out to support Republican Senate candidates last month because they believed Donald Trump's claims that voting machines. Said one: "What good would it have done to vote? They have votes that got changed. I don't know if I'll ever vote again."

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Here is the House Managers' trial brief. From my initial perusal it looks well done, particularly with regard to the specious argument that the Senate does not have jurisdiction to try a former president. Not that that will matter in the long run. The Senate Republicans will still latch on to that argument as an excuse to not convict without explicitly condoning the behavior.

https://beta.documentcloud.org/document ... ment-brief

Compare to Donald Trump's official reply which has "Unites States" in its first lines. I can only assume that's an homage to Trump famously slurring when he said "God blesh the United Shtatesh".

And twelve hours later, the Trump campaign has apparently decided just to leave up "Unites States": https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status ... 7126831105

Trump's brief also says that the House of Representatives rushed to impeach him. And yet Trump's team is also arguing that it's too late to try him?

To be a bit pedantic, Trump's filing was not a brief, it was a Response, and it was not intended to make detailed arguments. Their brief is not due until Monday.

Attorney Lin Wood is being investigated in Georgia because he may voted illegally there. There's a woman serving five years in Texas for voting illegally in 2016. Here's hoping.

Sadly, the real charge that led to Crystal Mason being given a five year sentence was "VWB" (Voting While Black).

(Another woman, Rachel Rodriguez, was recently charged with voter fraud in Texas for what they are calling illegal vote harvesting videod by the awful people from Project Veritas. She faces up to 20 years in prison.

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/01/13/rac ... ing-texas/

Also somehwere I saw that a large percentage of the insurrectionists who have been arrested didn't vote in November. Can't find the citation now though.

(Most of the precinct is Baxter State Park, location of Mount Katahdin, the northern terminus of the Appalachian Trail and just a glorious hike to the summit. Well worth a visit.)

[River]

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a new story about Republican voters who didn't turn out to support Republican Senate candidates last month because they believed Donald Trump's claims that voting machines. Said one: "What good would it have done to vote? They have votes that got changed. I don't know if I'll ever vote again."

This is exactly what Raffensberger et al were warning Trump and his allies would happen if they kept up with their nonsense claims. People would believe them, not turn out for the run-off, and the Democratic candidates would take the Senate seats. But Trump, thinking only of himself and his narcissistic injuries, kept it up and thus his party chased losing the White House with losing the Senate.

[N.E. Brigand]

Meanwhile, newly-elected Congresswoman Lauren Boebert of Colorado reimbursed herself $22,000 for mileage from campaign funds.

Her predecessor, Scott Tipton, also a Republican, had reimbursed himself less than $20,000 for mileage and all other travel expenses (about half from campaign funds and half from office funds) over a period of ten years.

Somehow Boebert drove more than 38,000 miles for her campaign in 2020 without having held any known campaign events in March, April, or July (and just one in May). Did she personally visit every potential constituent?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Only those with guns.

[River]

So in that part of Colorado that's pretty much everyone. Most of her district is the Rockies and the Western Slope. It's mountains and valleys, ranches and orchards with some major, world-famous ski resorts thrown in the mix (Telluride, Aspen, Vail, etc). People have shotguns and rifles for hunting and defending livestock from predators. Also for putting down livestock. Wouldn't say everyone is as into guns as she seems to be, though, or that her adoration for her Glock is what got her elected. During the campaign season, the voters Colorado Public Radio talked to (who were, I admit, somewhat self-selecting in that they agreed to be interviewed) hardly mentioned her precious Glock and desire to prance around the Capitol with it at all.

[N.E. Brigand]

Compare to Donald Trump's official reply which has "Unites States" in its first lines. I can only assume that's an homage to Trump famously slurring when he said "God blesh the United Shtatesh".

And twelve hours later, the Trump campaign has apparently decided just to leave up "Unites States": https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status ... 7126831105

Could be worse. David Portnoy, founder of the popular Barstool Sports website and somehow involved in the Gamestop imbroglio, today issued a statement about it, in which he refers to himself repeatedly in the third person, and in one such instance there's a rather unfortunate transposition of two letter in his last name.

[N.E. Brigand]

The former lawyer of the Proud Boys apparently owns the trademark (copyright?) on their name and is indicating that he may not let them use it anymore.

[Frelga]

David Portnoy, founder of the popular Barstool Sports website and somehow involved in the Gamestop imbroglio, today issued a statement about it, in which he refers to himself repeatedly in the third person, and in one such instance there's a rather unfortunate transposition of two letter in his last name.

Took me forever to get it. *tee-hee*

Canada declares the Proud Boys a terrorist group

How does this affect the value of the trademark?

[N.E. Brigand]

David Portnoy, founder of the popular Barstool Sports website and somehow involved in the Gamestop imbroglio, today issued a statement about it, in which he refers to himself repeatedly in the third person, and in one such instance there's a rather unfortunate transposition of two letter in his last name.

Took me forever to get it. *tee-hee*

Canada declares the Proud Boys a terrorist group

How does this affect the value of the trademark?

An excellent question!

And I think Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo asks another fine question: what does it mean to be the "moderator," as Mother Jones reports Marjorie Taylor Greene was, of a "Facebook page, which has provided a forum for death threats against Democrats, bigoted attacks on the Obamas and others, and assorted conspiracy theories"?

Does a moderator in that capacity issue warning to participants who are too conciliatory (e.g., who suggests that not every Democrat deserves a violent end) or aren't racist enough?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Hmmmmm?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

"Stand back and stand by"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/03/politics ... index.html

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[N.E. Brigand]

"Stand back and stand by"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/03/politics ... index.html

Do you think his nickname "Rufio" derives from the leader of the Lost Boys in the Steven Spielberg film Hook or from the Roman legionnaire?

[N.E. Brigand]

Voting by secret ballot this evening, House Republicans opted not to remove Liz Cheney from her leadership role. And it wasn't that close: 145-61 in favor of Cheney keeping her position (although that's more than three times as many Republican House members voting against Cheney as once voted against John Boehner, a number which then was considered a big sign of no confidence).

Could the Senate trial of Donald Trump also be conducted on secret ballot? That would probably make it likelier that he'd be convicted.

The answer is yes...

but you need a four-fifths plus one to first vote to allow a secret vote. (In other words, 81 senators if 100 are present.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Meanwhile, newly-elected Congresswoman Lauren Boebert of Colorado reimbursed herself $22,000 for mileage from campaign funds.

Her predecessor, Scott Tipton, also a Republican, had reimbursed himself less than $20,000 for mileage and all other travel expenses (about half from campaign funds and half from office funds) over a period of ten years.

Somehow Boebert drove more than 38,000 miles for her campaign in 2020 without having held any known campaign events in March, April, or July (and just one in May). Did she personally visit every potential constituent?

Boebert is indeed claiming that she visted a lot of constituents.

38,000 miles at 60 miles per hour would take 633 hours to drive. If she drove 10 hours every day, that would take 63 days. I guess it's possible?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Who was it who said that they wanted Trump to testify at the impeachment trial?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/politics ... index.html

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[elengil]

I don't think I said it, but I hope it happens.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile, voting machine company Smartmatic has filed a $2.7 billion lawsuit against Giuliani, Powell, Fox Corporation, Fox News, and Fox News hosts Lou Dobbs, Maria Bartiromo, and
Jeanine Pirro.

It starts like this:

1. The Earth is round. Two plus two equals four. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the 2020 election for President and Vice President of the United States. The election was not stolen,
rigged, or fixed. These are facts. They are demonstrable and irrefutable.

2.Defendants have always known these facts. They knew Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the 2020 U.S. election. They knew the election was not stolen. They knew the election was not rigged or fixed. They knew these truths just as they knew the Earth is round and two plus two equals four.

3. Defendants did not want Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to win the election. They wanted President Donald Trump and Vice President Michael Pence to win re-election. Defendants were disappointed. But they also saw an opportunity to capitalize on President Trump’s popularity by inventing a story. Defendants decided to tell people that the election was stolen from President Trump and Vice President Pence.

4. Defendants had an obvious problem with their story. They needed a villain. They needed someone to blame. They needed someone whom they could get others to hate. A story of good versus evil, the type that would incite an angry mob, only works if the storyteller provides the audience with someone who personifies evil.

5. Without any true villain, Defendants invented one. Defendants decided to make Smartmatic the villain in their story. Smartmatic is an election technology and software company. It was incorporated in Delaware and its U.S. operations are headquartered in Florida. In the 2020 U.S. election, Smartmatic provided election technology and software in Los Angeles County. Nowhere else. Smartmatic had a relatively small, non-controversial role in the 2020 U.S. election.

6. Those facts would not do for Defendants. So, the Defendants invented new ones. In their story, Smartmatic was a Venezuelan company under the control of corrupt dictators from socialist countries. In their story, Smartmatic’s election technology and software were used in many of the states with close outcomes. And, in their story, Smartmatic was responsible for stealing the 2020 election by switching and altering votes to rig the election for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/media/re ... index.html

[RoseMorninStar]

I wonder why Trump is not included in the lawsuit. He's the greatest propagator of the lie.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I wondered that with the Dominion lawsuits against Powell and Giuliani as well. He also is supposedly a billionaire (though I don't believe it), so would supposedly be a much bigger pocket than someone like Powell or Giuliani.