The challenges ahead (Biden's America)

[N.E. Brigand]

I don't think Donald Trump Jr. is the best person to criticize Hunter Biden on this point:
[Don Jr. tweet citing a new filing from the office of Special Counsel David Weiss, cocaine was found on the pouch containing Hunter Biden's gun.]

[Marcy Wheeler tweet noting that this fact "actually doesn't help Weiss' argument."]

Wheeler has expanded on that point in this piece. Because Weiss's office only examined the gun pouch in 2023, some five years after it was seized and apparently after the plea deal fell apart, that arguably strengthens Hunter Biden's argument that Weiss is engaging in vindictive prosecution under pressure from Congressional Republicans.

[N.E. Brigand]

Joe Manchin, the retiring Democratic senator from West Virginia, notes in a new statement today that "Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act [that Manchin championed and Joe Biden supported in 2022], seniors now have a cap on Medicare prescription drug spending."

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It should be noted that after Manchin championed the IRA (as a greatly reduced version of Biden's original proposal) and it passed he subsequently strongly criticized it.

(See, e.g.White House is torn over Joe Manchin’s fury at climate law he crafted)

[N.E. Brigand]

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that retail sales were 5.6% higher in Dec. 2023 compared to Dec. 2022.

[N.E. Brigand]

Now that wage data is in for Sep.-Dec. 2023, it does appear to be true that, setting aside the illusory 2020 jump which was caused by Covid job losses (the people who kept their jobs were likely to have higher wages thanthe people who lost their jobs), "today ... the average American makes more money than any point in history." And that's adjusted for inflation.



As you can see, they were already trending that way before the pandemic, so if not for Covid, real wages surely would be higher still.

[N.E. Brigand]

Wall Street Journal: "Americans Are Finally Feeling Better About the Economy".



That graph shows consumer sentiment at its highest since 2021 and growing faster over the past two months than at any points since 1991.

And why? I'm partial to this argument:

People are happier about the economy because they're hearing good news about the economy, especially about employment.

There's a social consensus on the economy that is heavily driven by narratives in media instead of independently observed economic realities, and the narratives from almost all media sources were bad. Now they're getting significantly (but not entirely) better.

When you ask people how the economy is, they don't think "That's a question about how I'm doing." They think "That's a question about how everyone else is doing." And since they don't have direct access to that information, they have to rely on media and social media.

If they see stories and TikToks and memes about grocery prices and misery and poverty day-in, day-out, they'll probably think everyone is doing badly. If they start seeing headlines and stories about surging employment and a good stock market, they'll think everyone is doing well.

This really should all be obvious, but it's overlooked. That's because political types treat people as functionally illiterates with no inner conception of the world, who answer questions about the state of America by mechanically reporting their personal conditions.

As noted at the link, the newest iteration of a regular survey from the University of Michigan finds that Americans not only report feeling better about the economy, but they also report hearing more good news about the economy.

And I appreciate his further argument that once people recognize the economy is good, then they will be more likely to support government spending: "it's a lot easier to argue we should share the pie when people understand the pie is growing."

- - - - - - - - -
Also, on the S&P market today, stocks hit an all-time high. But see how it was reported on Fox Business, where host Larry Kudlow said the good stock market returns could be investors hoping that Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden in ten months.

- - - - - - - - -
Just in the past 24 hours, the Biden administration has:

1. proposed a new consumer protection rule that would limit what banks can charge in overdraft fees.

2. found a way to forgive $4.9 billion in student loans held by 73,600 people.

3. required insurance companies to cut down the approval time for emergency procedures.

(On the other hand, the administration's proposal that could turn gig workers from independent contractors to employees may be problematic, and I am sympathetic to the argument that Biden's propsed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles could be bad for both consumers and the environment.)

- - - - - - - - - -
Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of senators has drafted what could be a very beneficial expansion of the child tax credit.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of senators has drafted what could be a very beneficial expansion of the child tax credit.

But which will never pass the House in its current configuration.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Or maybe I am wrong.

US House panel advances $78 billion tax break bill in strong bipartisan vote

[RoseMorninStar]

If I had to guess, I think Speaker Johnson is trying to bring the 'freedom' caucus to heel so that they lose their disruptive stranglehold/ control.

[N.E. Brigand]

Yet another Republican, Rep. Pete Stauber of Minnesota, is taking credit for infrastructure funding that he voted against.

[N.E. Brigand]

I didn't know that the "Biden administration physically removed more migrants from the U.S. than any administration in history. There were almost 2.5 million Title 42 expulsions under Biden. That's 35 times as many expulsions as people put into 'Remain in Mexico' under Trump."

[N.E. Brigand]

From the Associated Press: "Tribes, environmental groups ask US court to block $10B energy transmission project in Arizona."

They're suing to block the Burea of Land Management and the power company who holds the contract from constructing electrical lines that would transmit energy from a wind farm in southeastern Arizona to consumers in California and elsewhere. The project was approved after a review process in 2015 and was dubbed "the biggest U.S. electricity infrastructure undertaking since the Hoover Dam". The plaintiffs' filing says that the valley they wish to protect from these power lines is "one of the most intact, prehistoric and historical ... landscapes in southern Arizona" and that it "will be irreparably harmed if construction proceeds".

I don't know enough about this specific case to speak confidently, but it seems to me that by blocking wind projects like this and thus keeping Americans on fossil fuels, lawsuits like this will also irreparably harm this valley due to global warming.

[N.E. Brigand]

As I mentioned here at the time, Donald Trump's campaign tweeted this on Nov. 2, 2020:



Joe Biden has been president for three years and he has yet to start taking down the Washington Monument.

[N.E. Brigand]

Also, on the S&P market today, stocks hit an all-time high. But see how it was reported on Fox Business, where host Larry Kudlow said the good stock market returns could be investors hoping that Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden in ten months.

The S&P market reached another all-time high today.

[N.E. Brigand]

The United States economy grew 3.3% in the final quarter of 2023.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And yet there still seems to be little indication that Biden has seen any of the usual kind of uptick in favorability that one would expect with that kind economic good news. Of course, a president doesn't really have much to do with how well the economy is doing, but nonetheless he (I say "he" because the U.S. is still one of the only so-called democracies to never be led by a woman) usually gets credit or blame. The usual rules don't seem to apply to Biden and I really don't understand why.

[N.E. Brigand]

Climate activists appear to be very happy about this news, although at this point, it's only a pause:

"'It’s a massive win,' says environmentalist, after Biden Administration delays natural gas expansion."

Edited to note that Matt Yglesias argues that if this pause becomes permanent, it would have one of two effects"

— Foreign suppliers make up the gap and the climate impact is minimal; or
— Foreign suppliers don't make up the gap and poor countries suffer.

[N.E. Brigand]

And yet there still seems to be little indication that Biden has seen any of the usual kind of uptick in favorability that one would expect with that kind economic good news. Of course, a president doesn't really have much to do with how well the economy is doing, but nonetheless he (I say "he" because the U.S. is still one of the only so-called democracies to never be led by a woman) usually gets credit or blame. The usual rules don't seem to apply to Biden and I really don't understand why.

It is a conundrum. Meanwhile, the S&P hit yet another new record today; that the fifth straight business day that's happened.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And new sign-ups for the Affordable Care Act also set a new record.

Obamacare sign-ups hit record 21.3 million as Biden pushes his efforts to lower health care costs

[N.E. Brigand]

In other news, criminal charges are being filed against Andrew Cuomo.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/cr ... d=msedgntp

This is not criminal charges, but (as reported Friday by ABC and others), "Justice Department finds Cuomo sexually harassed employees, settles with NY state." In 2021, New York's attorney general reported that Cuomo had harassed eleven women; the DOJ probe says it was thirteen women.