The (no longer) much too early 2024 election thread

[N.E. Brigand]

Some analysis in light of the news that Donald Trump would impose a 60% tariff on imports from China:

"Trump's New Economic Plan Is Terrible. Donald Trump’s plan is to enact a large tax cut for the rich and partially offset the cost with a smaller but still large tax on all consumer goods. In fact, almost everything in Trump’s policy agenda is geared toward taking a full employment economy and pushing it in the direction of higher inflation, higher interest rates, and lower productivity. Trump would make inflation worse."

[N.E. Brigand]

Oh boy. Watch this video:

[RoseMorninStar]

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I take news like this with a grain of salt, and money only goes so far in elections, but ...

Republican Party reveals it's had the worst fundraising year in a decade

[N.E. Brigand]

This is a helpful summary by Roger Parloff of arguments in 14th Amendment case.

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Yesterday, a Morning Consult poll showed Donad Trump leading Joe Biden in seven swing states (with Trump up 3 points in Arizona, 8 in Georgia, 8 in Nevada, 5 in Michigan, 10 in North Carolina, 3 in Pennsylvania, and 5 in Wisconsin -- Biden won all but North Carolina in 2020), but later yesterday, a Quinnipiac poll showed Biden leading Trump by six points nationally (50%-44%; if there are third-party candidates, they eat in Biden's lead). The same polling firm only showed Biden leading by 1% in December. It's going to be wild if Trump wins the White House despite Biden getting 9 million more votes than him. (In 2020, Biden won by 4.5% and 7 million votes.) Fox News mentioned the latter poll several times today.

Meanwhile Moody’s predicts Biden winning (308-230 in the Electoral College) if turnout is average.

In Pennsylvania, a new poll today has Biden leading Trump 42%-41%. Curiously he does better there (42%-37%) if a third-party candidate is in the race.

FYI, be cautious of a Twitter account called "Biden's Wins." It rarely includes links and is sometimes misleading. For instance, today it tweeted "New polling in Pennsylvania shows President Biden beating Trump by 5 points. President Biden winning Pennsylvania would likely end any hopes of a second Trump Administration." There was no link included, but the only new poll in PA today was this one, and as you can see, Biden leading Trump by 5% is only if there’s a third party, and what's more, Biden only gets 42% of the PA vote in either scenario, with more than 15% of the electorate undecided.

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Donald Trump’s campaign chief has privately been telling Republican donors not to take Trump’s threats to punish Nikki Haley funders seriously.

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As much to memorialize this for myself as for any other reason, I want to note what Joe Biden said in a CNN town hall on Feb. 26, 2020 (repeating some things he’d said in a debate the previous night): "The last point I'd make, and I know I'm going to get a lot of questions, is that what we did -- what I would do were I president now, I would not be taking China's word for it. I would insist that China allow our scientists in to make a hard determination of how it started, where it's from, how far along it is. Because that is not happening now. And that should be -- we should be allowed to do that and they should want us to do that, because we have genuine experts who know how to confront these things. But we need to invest immediately. We should have done it from the beginning, the moment the virus appeared. But we're getting late, but we've got good scientists. And I just hope the president gets on the same page as the scientists.”

(Search engines were not bringing up that transcript for me, although they did turn up this fact-check of a campaign ad Biden put out two month later.)

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A federal judge yesterday dismissed the Disney company’s lawsuit against Ron DeSantis.

Meanwhile, the police investigation into former DeSantis ally Christian Ziegler "found a document titled 'THE LIST' containing the names of several other women under the sub-heading labeled 'F***'" (but spelled out) and including the woman who later accused Christian of rape. It seems that free love had been a fairly regular practice for Christian and Bridget Ziegler for nearly three years, although Bridget would take steps to ensure that their partners were fully consenting (not under the influence). On an occasion when a potential partner’s status didn't meet that test, Christian texted Bridget that they’d have to "hunt for someone new."

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It’s probably smart of the Biden campaign to seize on this issue.

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"Pro-Trump Republican megadonor Tim Mellon is now up to giving $15 million to the RFK Jr superPAC."

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As V noted, the Republican National Committee had in 2023 its worst fundraising year since 2013 (real dollars) or 1993 (inflation-adjusted dollars). Apparently they struggle in years that end in 3? Curiously, the previous two such were off-cycle years, but Republicans did well in Congress in 1994 and 2014. In response to this news, right-wing activist Charlie Kirk trashed the RNC for lavish overspending.

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A Republican group in Alaska trying to repeal ranked-choice voting, which the state adopted a few years ago. The method resulted in a Democrat (Mary Peltola) beating Sarah Palin two years ago.

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The special election to replace George Santos is less than two weeks away (Feb. 13th). The candidates are Tom Suozzi (Democrat) and Mazi Pilip (Republican).

Edited to note that Pilip actually is a registered Democrat who caucuses with Republicans.

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A fair number of nuts on the right are using the phrase "one year left" to imply that there will mass executions following a Trump election.

[N.E. Brigand]

The "cold open" of Saturday Night Live tonight was a supposed town hall event in South Carolina featuring Donald Trump, as portrayed by SNL's regular's impersonator, James Austin Johnson. He's quite good but I thought the sketch was flat compared to some of his prior outings. But there was one surprising twist: the real Nikki Haley appeared as herself. (She wasn't particularly funny either.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Speaking of South Carolina, the first official 2024 Democratic primary happened in that state today. As expected, President Biden defeated his two challengers, Marianne Williams and Rep. Dean Phillips. On Friday, Phillips tried to set expectations. Biden had won 64% of the vote in New Hampshire as a write-in candidate, and some polling a few weeks ago indicated that Biden would win in South Carolina with 69% of the vote. So Phillips tweeted that "President Biden should get 95% of the vote in South Carolina."

Biden today got 96% of the vote. And Phillips placed third.

[N.E. Brigand]

A new NBC poll of 1,000 registered voters (margin of error +/- 3.1%) finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 47%-42%.

On specific issues, those voters prefer Trump to Biden on the economy 55%-33%, on border issues 57%-22%, on crime 50%-29%, and on competence 48%-32%. They prefer Biden to Trump on protecting democracy 43%-41% and on abortion 44%-32%.

It's a solid poll; I urge against adopting the "unskewing" response that Republicans had when facing tough polls in 2012.

Democrats just have a lot of work to do to get voters back in touch with reality if there's hope to win in November.

[N.E. Brigand]

Earlier today, Donald Trump suggested that Ronna [Romney] McDaniel might need to be replaced as chair of the Republican National Committee.

Given the RNC's poor electoral track record (compared to expectations) since McDaniel was named to that role in 2017, not to mention the reportedly terrible fundraising in 2023, that's not so surprising. But it does get me thinking that we still don't have a full picture of how much McDaniel was involved in Jan. 6th.

[N.E. Brigand]

In a filing to the Supreme Court, Donald Trump says (in one of his five arguments) that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment only prohibits insurrectionists from holding office, not from running for office, so that he should stay on the ballot, because Sec. 3 also says that Congress can lift the prohibition, and who knows, maybe they'll wait until January 2029 to do so! Until then, he has to be deemed eligible.

[N.E. Brigand]

In response to today's unanimous decision by a bipartisan panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals that Donald Trump is not immune from prosecution for actions he took as president, his son, Donald Trump, Jr., tweeted that "If this becomes the norm, would a Trump DOJ prosecute Obama for droning an American?" And among the responses, I also saw these comments:
--"Will Obama get the death penalty for droning civilians? Or just life in prison?"
--"Obama will get the Electric chair for his drone kills".
--"The door is now wide open to a case against Barack Obama for war crimes committed as president."

These people either don't know or assume others won't know that Donald Trump launched many more drone strikes than Barack Obama.

The "Hillary the Hawk, Donald the Dove" myth from 2016 lingers on.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

These people either don't know or assume others won't know that Donald Trump launched many more drone strikes than Barack Obama.

The "Hillary the Hawk, Donald the Dove" myth from 2016 lingers on.

To be fair, I am not aware of Trump authorizing any drone strikes on a U.S. citizen, which Obama did do.

[N.E. Brigand]

These people either don't know or assume others won't know that Donald Trump launched many more drone strikes than Barack Obama.

The "Hillary the Hawk, Donald the Dove" myth from 2016 lingers on.

To be fair, I am not aware of Trump authorizing any drone strikes on a U.S. citizen, which Obama did do.

It was with that distinction in mind that I cited the three respondents to Don Jr.'s tweet as well as his own, and I'm glad you called it out. My position is that if military strikes against al-Qaeda were legal, then Anwar al-Awlaki was a legitimate target, just as an American who joined the German army in World War II would not be entitled to special protections that German soldiers serving alongside him didn't get. And a lawsuit brought by al-Awlaki's father against President Obama was dismissed. And of course, President Trump clamped down on reporting details about U.S. drone strikes -- but if an American had been killed during his term, we probably would have heard about it anyway. That said, this is a fraught subject that deserves continued scrutiny. And I think it matters that Donald Trump is often wrongly portrayed as having been a peacenik.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Oh, I completely agree with you!

[N.E. Brigand]

Earlier today, Donald Trump suggested that Ronna [Romney] McDaniel might need to be replaced as chair of the Republican National Committee. Given the RNC's poor electoral track record (compared to expectations) since McDaniel was named to that role in 2017, not to mention the reportedly terrible fundraising in 2023, that's not so surprising. But it does get me thinking that we still don't have a full picture of how much McDaniel was involved in Jan. 6th.

Donald Trump said this more explicitly in a different interview Monday, and now multiple outlets are reporting that "Ronna McDaniel, R.N.C. Chairwoman, Plans to Step Down."

[N.E. Brigand]

In 2000, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said that having a third-party candidate on the ballot helps Republicans:



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Maybe Donald Trump was just channeling the (now-)late Mojo Nixon (may he rest in peace)?

Is this therefore the Anti-Trump?


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Per Axios, former Trump administration officials say that Donald Trump, if returned to the White House, is likely to undermine the Biden administration's moves that allow Medicare to negotiate the prices of prescription drugs.

When campaigning in 2016, Trump said he wanted the government to negotiate drug prices, but he never did so as President. It was Democrats in 2022 who made that possible. Those negotiations are now underway for the first ten expensive drugs.

As President Biden notes here, every Republican voted against giving Medicare this power.

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The claim that "60% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck" is a bogus meme pushed by Lending Tree, a payday loan company with an interest in making the economic situation look worse than it is. Rep. Dean Phillips, the Minnesota Democrat trying to challenge Joe Biden to be his party's presidential nominee, is pushing that meme.

In fact, 54% of Americans have savings to cover three months' of expenses.

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Donald Trump wants to impose tariffs on imports of foreign steel and aluminum, which would "make it harder for American manufacturers of cars, airplanes, applies, and other advanced goods to compete in foreign markets while pushing housing construction costs up. It’s a formula for national un-development."

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But many Americans still don't grasp the above points, because President Biden's electoral and approval polling numbers are still pretty terrible.

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Let's hope the numbers change soon. One possible good sign: for the first time since February 2020, "more Americans say America isn't in a recession than is in one". That's 49% who say "we're not in a recession" vs. 46% who say "we are in a recession."

By the standard economic decision, America hasn't been in a recession since May 2020: the Covid-19 recession lasted only two months.

When Donald Trump was elected to the presidency in November 2016, i.e., in the last months of Barack Obama's presidency, 55% of Americans said the U.S. was not in a recession and 40% of Americans said the U.S. was in a recession. But the last U.S. recession prior to Covid-19 ended in June 2009.

Obviously there are lingering effects, particularly joblessness, that can linger after a recession technically ends. Following Covid-19 pandemic, employment didn't return to early 2020 levels until late 2021, i.e., some eighteen months after the recession ended. (And then inflation in 2022 undercut that accomplishment.) But when Trump was elected in Nov. 2016, unemployment was at 4.7%, which was better than at any point during Ronald Reagan's presidency and better than the vast majority of George W. Bush's presidency.

But meanwhile, a new YouGov poll finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 44%-43%.

Another survey finds that "erosion of Biden's support has come disproportionately from young people and African-Americans, which are progressive demographic groups. But if you ask about ideology, the erosion is among moderates" within those groups. Chase those swing voters!

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Nevada has both a primary for both parties (yesterday) and a caucus for Republicans (tomorrow).

President Biden won the Democratic primary last night with 89.4% of the vote. In second place was "none of these candidates" with 5.7%. Marianne Williamson rounded out the top three with 2.8%. I don't believe Dean Phillips participated.

Donald Trump was not on the Republican ballot, but Nikki Halley finished second anyway, with 33.7%. The winner was "none of these candidates" with 60%.

I laughed at this: "A lot of people talking $%@# about Nikki Haley losing to no one like the same dude didn't blind a cyclops."

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Speaking of Marianne Williamson, she has suspended her campaign (reporting from ABC).

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Some members of the Republican commentariat seem to finally be grasping what Marcy Wheeler argued many months ago and what seems to be motivating Nikki Haley not to drop out of the race too quickly: Donald Trump's strategy of delaying his trials is unlikely to delay them so long that none of them happen before the 2024 election -- not to mention that he very well may have to be in court when he should be at the Republican National Convention or campaigning -- so that he might be a convicted felon by November, but it will be too late for Republicans to get a different candidate on the ballot. And thus you see Hugh Hewitt today arguing that the Supreme Court should take up Donald Trump's (presumably forthcoming) appeal of yesterday's no-immunity decision but then announce that they won't hear that case until December. So that voters won't know whether or not their candidate is a convicted felon. Sort of Heisenberg's candidate.

Although maybe Haley is just waiting for the Supreme Court to decide on Trump's eligiblity?

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Trump himself is thought by many (like me) to be running for two primary reasons: (1) to again use a government position to grift and (2) to avoid prison.

But as regards the latter, that can only mean to avoid prosecution while he is the sitting president (per DOJ guidance). It cannot mean to pardon himself, because -- and I hope we never get to the point where this needs to be adjudicated -- but as David Frum correctly argued back in September, Trump can't protect himself that way:

If a president can pardon himself, he can commit any federal crime with impunity. He can counterfeit money, engage in piracy, murder the First Lady in the White House, then burn down the White House itself. If the legal outcome is absurd, the legal theory is wrong.

Some people reply: Congress could impeach. But impeachment can impose no penalty beyond removal and disqualification. If the theory of self-pardon is true, a president who murdered the First Lady on federal property and immediately pardoned himself would face no criminal penalty.

Impeachment as a remedy for presidential crime only works if the president can be prosecuted after he is removed. If a president can self-pardon, then the only penalty he'd face for murdering the First Lady on federal property would be the loss of his job.

For that matter, if the president murdered the First Lady and burned down the White House on his last day, then he would face no penalty whatsoever. This situation is analogous to yesterday's immunity decision: eventually common sense has to prevail in legal interpretation, or laws aren't worth spit.

(By extension of that logic, it is also self-evident that a president cannot pardon his co-conspirators, and while nobody challenged the illegal pardons of Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and Michael Flynn, I trust that some future court will hold that not only are pardons of co-conspirators invalid, but the pardons themselves are criminal acts. You know it's true! The people who argue otherwise are just wrong, that's all. (See also the arguments here.))

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Brian Beutler warns that Democrats cannot win by claiming to be the real "tough on immigration" party -- they only went along with the last four months of negotiations in hopes of securing aid for Ukraine -- but they might win with this true message:

"Republicans will sabotage America to help Trump and themselves."

Beutler also feels that many prominent Republicans, ranging from Sen. Mike Lee to Elon Musk, are play-acting as rubes in order to help Republicans win and then give tax cuts to the rich. (In Musk's cases, as I think I said in another thread, I believe it's both. He wants Trump to win for financial reasons, but he's also lost his mind, partly from all the drugs.) Beutler points out that we've seen such theatrics before, even from the obviously rational and even canny Sen. Jim Lankford, who in January 2020 claimed he was physically upset* by Rep. Adam Schiff noting, in his closing arguments in Donald Trump's first impeachment trial, that a news story reported an unnamed Trump associate had said Trump would have senators' "heads on a pike" if they voted to convict him.

*Except that Lankford said he was "visibly upset," which as Beutler notes, is "like an actor accidentally reading the stage direction out loud."

[N.E. Brigand]

Citing here because of Trump: the New York Post, a conservative tabloid, just published an update on the ongoing release of these documents:

"Epstein accuser claims pedophile had sex tapes of [Donald] Trump, [Bill] Clinton, Prince Andrew and Richard Branson."

The documents are from discovery in a defamation lawsuit, since settled, that one of Epstein's alleged victims, Virginia Giuffre, brought against Ghislaine Maxwell....

Edited to note that Donald Trump Jr. shared this news in a tweet that omits his father's name: "This seems like a big deal and if true why has nothing been done about it? Breaking News: Court documents allege Jeffrey Epstein recorded sex tapes of Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, and Sir Richard Branson."

Holy shit! Per Bloomberg, on November 27, 2016, Jeffrey Epstein wrote this to Jes Staley, the CEO of Barclays Bank from 2015 to 2021:

"Could you ask [REDACTED] if he would like to considered for treasury".

And Staley wrote back: "Will do. He's on a plane to London right now but I'll reach him after".

Later Staley added: "Spoke with him. He said not yet, but thanks."

These messages were conveyed by a go-between. Staley's relationship with Epstein had become known and the matter of some concern in 2015, and in a 2023 deposition, Staley said he was no longer in touch with Epstein after 2015: "Being CEO of a major British bank is a very, very visible job, and I thought it was not appropriate to deal at all with Epstein in that role". But that was a lie; as documents in a different case cited by this article show, the two men continued to communicate with each other via a third party.

Now I'm no lawyer, but depositions are given under oath, aren't they? And anything said in 2023 would be within a statute of limitations, right?

If so, can some prosecutor please put the squeeze on Staley so that we can get a better picture about why Jeffrey Epstein was telling the CEO of a bank with £1.514 trillion in assets that he had a say in selecting Donald Trump's Secretary of the Treasury?

[N.E. Brigand]

I'm gathering that the oral arguments this morning, of which I heard only part, bode well for Donald Trump remaining on the ballot.

[N.E. Brigand]

The problem with the argument that Donald Trump wasn't indicted for insurrection is that no one previously disqualified was indicted for insurrection.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I listened to the argument and it went about as I expected. If there was one surprise, it was that Ketanji Brown Jackson seemed to be strongly leaning towards overturning the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court. Moreover, much as I fear a second Donald Trump presidency, I think that overturning the decision is the right call.

I've said previously that I thought that the SCOTUS would rule for Trump in this case, and then against Trump in the immunity case. I still believe that. The only question in my mind is how quickly they will rule in the immunity case (and whether it will come by simply refusing to review the DC Circuit decision or by affirming it upon review).