Over-Population

The place for measured discourse about politics and current events, including developments in science and medicine.
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Jnyusa
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Post by Jnyusa »

Ack! A trick question! :rofl:

:hug: Of course YOU are worth it, Prim!

But you've called attention, very accurately, to two aspects of this problem which make it difficult (if not impossible) to solve politically.

1. You're young and otherwise healthy and have been paying insurance premiums for 20+ years. You expect to continue working and paying premiums for another 20. When you obtained your health insurance, the insurer had statistics on the disease rates and recovery rates for your age, profession, etc. and used that to calculate your premiums.

You have actually paid for all of your share of all treatments received among a group of people bearing risk similar to yours. No one in that group is going to say, "I don't want to pay for Prim's cancer treatment; let me get cancer instead so that she can pay for mine." You are all equal beneficiaries of either good health or medical treatment.

Assuming the company is not defrauding its customers, and assuming their statistics are accurate, that system of risk sharing is as fair as we can make it.

This is not the case with Medicare. It's a perfect example of what insurers call adverse selection. Everyone in the group receiving this insurance is high risk. They will all need extensive medical treatment eventually. The premium, meanwhile, is being paid by a different group whose risk is much lower. They are being billed not because they entered into a voluntary agreement with those who share similar risk but because they have incomes and the government has the power to take those incomes away from them.

It's been observed that it would actually be cheaper for taxpayers to provide medical care for everyone than it is to provide care only for the elderly. Everyone would pay premiums, everyone would receive benefits in exchange for their costs, and the risk would be spread more evenly.

2. You can never judge the social value of a program based on its value to one individual. There is no way that I personally should be the one to decide whether my own mother or father or child is 'worth' the amount of money society is willing to spend on them. The answer will always be yes.

When my Mom became mentally disabled fifteen years ago, and my Dad became terminally ill within two years of that, as an economist I could see the writing on the wall already then. But no matter how imprudent I knew it to be for society as a whole, I could not deny medical treatment to either of them (I had/have medical POA for both). I never signed a DNR for my Dad - no one even asked me to do so. I did sign fourteen resusitation orders for treatments that are as routine as nose drops in hospitals today. If I had requested a DNR I would have gotten fish eyes for sure. I just signed a DNR for my Mom two months ago under physician's advise because her mental state is such now, after fifteen years of deteriorating brain matter, that returning her from a terminal event to the mental state she is in now would be cruel rather than merciful. But unless she has a heart attack or a massive stroke that kills her, the disease she has now will run its course for another 2-5 years before she dies from it, at a cost of about half a million dollars.

Putting the cost on the taxpayer and the decision on the next of kin is by definition a recipe for disaster.

Most of you guys on the board here are just a bit too young to have entered this phase of experience yet. If your parents live to their eighties, that's when elderly care starts to become an all-consuming project for the children and an ungodly expense for the taxpayer. And, as I said earlier, over-80 is the fastest-growing age group in the U.S. today.

But those of you whose parents were born between 1946 and 1956 will be forced to get rid of them long before they reach 80. You'll still be paying for the care your grandparents received and won't be able to afford any care for your parents.

Jn
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Maria
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Post by Maria »

Ellienor wrote: Higher taxes? Loss of care for the elderly? Or a combo? It is so hard to make the tough choices, and I don't think the elderly (who vote) will stand for a reduction in their benefits. So I suppose it will be higher taxes.
You should read The Fourth Turning. The authors predict that the idealism of the Boom Generation (those born 1943-1960) will cause that generation to actually vote themselves out of all sorts of senior entitlements, once they see what it is costing their children. There won't be much left by the time I'm of retirement age.
Erunáme
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Post by Erunáme »

Jn,

My mom will periodically ask me if I am going to take care of her and my dad when they're old. The answer I always give her is "I don't know. I will do it if I can". How can I say yes when I don't know what the future holds? How am I to know if I will have enough money? Honestly, I don't think I will. I see how tough it is for a family to take care of their children. My mom always reacts to this badly, saying that I don't love them and takes my answer as a no. She tries to make me feel guilty, which is wrong.

My dad never took the initiative to get his bachelors. He stopped at an associates degree. This has made his career quite rocky and he's been unemployed now for several years for several reasons: his age, he doesn't look healthy (he's not taken good care of himself), and his lack of a bachelors degree. My mom has always worked as a teacher, but that's not the greatest pay and in Texas something was passed which denies teachers their spouses social security benefits I believe (I can't remember exactly what it was). My parents don't have very much in savings and they don't have much for retirement. That's not my fault. They have hurt themselves. Not to mention we don't have a good relationship which doesn't help things.

Neither one of them have had to take care of their parents really. My dad hasn't taken care of his parents at all. His dad died in 1988 from lung cancer and his mother is still alive and well (just some problems with arthritis in her hands). My mom's dad died before she turned 30 and her mom died of cervical cancer around when she was 30 I think. She had to take care of her mom a bit, but I don't know the details. Yet she expects me to take care of them plus any children that I may have. I'm not sure how it's going to be possible. I feel bad, but what else can I do if I don't have the money? I may be lucky as I'll be living in England and the exchange rate could help me out. We'll see.

But the burden placed on my generation does seem a bit unfair.
Jnyusa
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Post by Jnyusa »

I'm sure there are lots of people in your situation, Eru. :hug:

Jn
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MithLuin
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Post by MithLuin »

My grandfather lived with us for a few months of the year for about 4 years when I was little. He was 80-84 at the time (his wife had died, despite being 17 years his junior). My Mom had three children (aged 3 1/2 -infant at the beginning, and 3-6 at the end). Oh, and she had to basically run the farm. Obviously, this was not easy, and it drove her a little crazy. But, well...she did it as long as she could. She bathed him, and took care of him, moved a bed into a downstairs room for him, gave him a diaper pail for his soiled underwear, etc. He had a mini-stroke or seizure out our house once, on her birthday.

When I was seriously dating someone, and we would talk about maybe getting married someday, I remember telling him that if his parents needed to move in with us when they got older, that would be fine with me. To me, that is the kind of decision you make in advance, and then you figure out how to pull it off when the time comes. I do think it is shoddy of parents to expect that, but in my case, I would be willing to make a lot of sacrifices to keep my parents from having to live in a home. After all, these are the same parents who put me through college and are letting me live in their house for cheap rent ;). They take good care of me, so I'd like to return the favor. I know that SS isn't going to take care of my parents. I also know that they have some savings, and that they have made plans for the future. But, the best-laid plans gang oft awry, so of course it is possible that they will need to rely on their kids to take care of them someday.

Luckily, they had 5 kids, so surely one of us will be able to do so :P
Just to bring this thread back on topic ;)

That is why my Mom only had to care for her dad for part of the year - he spent the rest of the time at her sister's, on the other side of the country. (Both my parents were one of six children). He did have to go into a home the last year of his life; I don't know who paid for that. He was a steel worker, so I'm guessing the union had some benefits. But he never had any savings. He wasn't in the "greatest generation," though - he was born in 1901. He was in the "we lived through the depression so we eat the cores of our apples" generation.

My aunt's family is going through such a rough time that the people at work call her "Jobette" - sometimes, the medical situation is hideous, regardless of age. But, well, they're family, so I would hope that we will be there for them, when they need it...
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The Watcher
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Post by The Watcher »

Well, this post is going to seem a bit snarky, but so be it.

I have been looking at the threads about the SF moot, other vacation plans, who is sending kids to good colleges, what people do for hobbies, what vehicles they purchased, how they keep up their homes, etc.

After all of the angst about not being able to live your elder years at the same standard of living and medical care that your parents had, does anyone see the irony here?

I cannot claim to speak for most people here, but my parents did not whiz around our family of seven when I was a kid to fantastic vacations. We had a camper and a station wagon, and we would pile in each summer to go on educational camping trips. Yes, I saw DC, I saw Mt. Rushmore, I saw Maine, Massachusetts, and Kentucky, etc. I flew once on an airplane as a child, and never did it again until I was married. We lived a simple life. We had no frills, but we had the standards of the time - color tv, push button phones, and a microwave at some point.

What I am trying to point out here is what we now spend our lives doing jsut because it seems normal. How many of you have cell phone bills? Cable tv/satellite/tivo/automatic recording bills? Central air conditioning?

If you have kids, do they attend daycare? Did they wear disposable diapers? How many hand me down clothes do the kids get? How much clothing is sewn at home by the mom? How often do you eat out? How much from scratch cooking takes place in your household? Do you grocery shop for bargains or use coupons? How often is your wardrobe updated? How often do you go to a salon to get your hair, skin, nails, or other vanities taken care of? Could you even give your own child a haircut?

Sheesh, I am sick to death of hearing about how bad we all have it. We bought into it hook, line, and sinker, and now we seem to be of the opinions that since we had all of these things as kids or young adults, we certainly are entitled to them now as we get older as well, and certainly we should not have to pay for it. We need transplants? We need to have our eyes or ears fixed, or our teeth? NO false teeth or glasses or hearing aids, we want the real stuff. Is it our fault that we are overweight, smoked, ate terribly, drank too much, and now our livers or lungs or kidneys are giving out? Well, of course, we should get new ones. Someone else will die conveniently and provide them.

Does anyone else see the irony here? Where did this huge sense of entitlement start with? Anyone born since 1950 is facing the highest longevity odds in human history if you live in the "Western world." We have standards of living that make those of the 1950s seem like dire third world poverty. But, all we do is grouse and complain about what we will never see? What are you all expecting?

Sorry, but those of you who had parents and grandparents who did or are now reaping the benefits of our current skewed elderly payout programs, just think back and realize what they themselves did not have and what they routinely sacrificed and how they lived within their means at the same age as you are now. Would you change places with them?
Erunáme
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Post by Erunáme »

MithLuin wrote:Luckily, they had 5 kids, so surely one of us will be able to do so
I'm an only child. The burden is all on me.

Watcher, you need to take central air conditioning off your list of "extras". For some of us, it is an necessity. People who don't have AC can die where I live. Not all of us are lucky to live in an area where AC is not needed.
just think back and realize what they themselves did not have and what they routinely sacrificed and how they lived within their means at the same age as you are now
Same could be said of their parents. And their parents' parents....etc, etc.
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The Watcher
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Post by The Watcher »

[quote="Eruname"][quote="MithLuin"]Luckily, they had 5 kids, so surely one of us will be able to do so[/quote]

I'm an only child. The burden is all on me.

Watcher, you need to take central air conditioning off your list of "extras". For some of us, it is an necessity. People who don't have AC can die where I live. Not all of us are lucky to live in an area where AC is not needed.

[quote]just think back and realize what they themselves did not have and what they routinely sacrificed and how they lived within their means at the same age as you are now[/quote]

Same could be said of their parents. And their parents' parents....etc, etc.[/quote]

Eru -

I am not trying to negate what you say now. But, chances are Texans two generations back DID not have AC. As far as who took care of the elderly, the family did. It was expected. Three generations under one roof was far more normal then than it is now. And, to be honest, I think we lost something along the way when all of a sudden that trend grew out of favor in place of things like nursing homes, retirement homes, snowbirds in Florida and Arizona, etc. There are limits to how valid independent elderly lifestyles have true merit - and I am talking about those who are NOT active, but those that are indeed frail or starting to become so.

Sorry, just my opinion. And, you did not answer my question - would you trade places with your mother, grandmother, or great grandmother?
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Túrin Turambar
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Post by Túrin Turambar »

Eru wrote: Watcher, you need to take central air conditioning off your list of "extras". For some of us, it is an necessity. People who don't have AC can die where I live. Not all of us are lucky to live in an area where AC is not needed.
Hmmm…I know people who get by OK in north Queensland without air conditioning, and many people live in the tropics and don’t have it. Yes, a hot summer can be fatal (a hot summer can be fatal here for that matter). The problem is usually with developers who insist on building Georgian-style homes that aren’t suited to local climate conditions (the one I’m in now, for example). I know people who wouldn’t live in Brisbane without air conditioning, but I have gotten through 45-degree C (115-degree F) days in summer alright without it.

As to the issue of aged care –

It’s a difficult one, as a combination of higher life expectancies and the aging population means that the number of retired people are rising. Unless we are going to let them starve, someone needs to look after them, and it’s either going to be the Government or individuals. Either way, working people will end up paying. The only thing that I can think of that might help would be raising the retirement age. That, of course, depends on there being jobs available. Legalising euthanasia and making it widely available might be a good idea as well.
Erunáme
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Post by Erunáme »

The Watcher wrote: But, chances are Texans two generations back DID not have AC.
Which most likely means a heck of a lot more elderly were dying because they are the ones who cannot resist the heat near as much...and ill people dying as well...so less sick/helpless people to take care of.
Three generations under one roof was far more normal then than it is now. And, to be honest, I think we lost something along the way when all of a sudden that trend grew out of favor in place of things like nursing homes, retirement homes, snowbirds in Florida and Arizona, etc.
I can't quite agree with that. I know there's lots of people who wax about the "good old days of the 50s". They have that Leave it Beaver idea in their head. I don't believe it. I don't think everything was hunky dory. I bet you having the elderly in the house meant even more strife for everyone all around. While it would be really nice if all the generations could live together, I don't think this is very plausible for the majority of families. The emotional problems would be too bad.
And, you did not answer my question - would you trade places with your mother, grandmother, or great grandmother?
No, but not so much for matters of convienence. I do not want to be living in a time where women were not valued, expected to keep up the house and kids and bow down to their husband's wishes. A simpler time would be nicer, but the intolerance would not be. I have cable TV, a computer and the wretched AC, but no cell phone and not many extras. I've learned how to mend my clothes, know a bit of sewing thanks to my mom, didn't get on an airplane until I had to for a college band trip, like camping trips to the mountains, never had any video game system, wore clothes that my mom made, want to use cloth diapers, had cloth diapers used on me, rarely eat out now and rarely ate out as a kid, cook quite a bit from scratch, shop for bargains, use coupons, rarely buy new clothes, have never had my nails done, haven't had my hair cut for a year, and have done a bit of cutting Nick's hair.

I'm not a spoiled brat.
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The Watcher
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Post by The Watcher »

Lord_Morningstar wrote:
Eru wrote: Watcher, you need to take central air conditioning off your list of "extras". For some of us, it is an necessity. People who don't have AC can die where I live. Not all of us are lucky to live in an area where AC is not needed.
Hmmm…I know people who get by OK in north Queensland without air conditioning, and many people live in the tropics and don’t have it. Yes, a hot summer can be fatal (a hot summer can be fatal here for that matter). The problem is usually with developers who insist on building Georgian-style homes that aren’t suited to local climate conditions (the one I’m in now, for example). I know people who wouldn’t live in Brisbane without air conditioning, but I have gotten through 45-degree C (115-degree F) days in summer alright without it.

As to the issue of aged care –

It’s a difficult one, as a combination of higher life expectancies and the aging population means that the number of retired people are rising. Unless we are going to let them starve, someone needs to look after them, and it’s either going to be the Government or individuals. Either way, working people will end up paying. The only thing that I can think of that might help would be raising the retirement age. That, of course, depends on there being jobs available. Legalising euthanasia and making it widely available might be a good idea as well.
You bring up valid points about designing appropriate style housing for the climates - and that enters into other topics equally as valid, such as energy costs.

But, as far as euthanasia, unfortunately IMO, that is a decision that only can be made by people for themselves who are lucid but facing otherwise fatal or more than likely fatal diseases. It is not something that needs to be addressed by or for most elderly on its own, in fact, by doing so, one is opening up a can of worms that would have MOST dire and unpleasant abuses.

The best thing one can do is set out for themselves their OWN personal healthcare POA, living will, and/or witnessed written statement about interventive medical treatments. I would never want that power to be invested in other parties without legal proof or intent.
Last edited by The Watcher on Thu Apr 27, 2006 7:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
Erunáme
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Post by Erunáme »

I'm feeling too sensitive for this thread right now. I need to back away. I'm sorry for that.

I should learn never to enter into these things in the first place. :roll:
Jnyusa
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Post by Jnyusa »

THIS POST IS BY THE WATCHER (see below)
The Watcher wrote:
Eruname wrote:
MithLuin wrote:Luckily, they had 5 kids, so surely one of us will be able to do so
I'm an only child. The burden is all on me.

Watcher, you need to take central air conditioning off your list of "extras". For some of us, it is an necessity. People who don't have AC can die where I live. Not all of us are lucky to live in an area where AC is not needed.
just think back and realize what they themselves did not have and what they routinely sacrificed and how they lived within their means at the same age as you are now

Same could be said of their parents. And their parents' parents....etc, etc.
Eru -

I am not trying to negate what you say now. But, chances are Texans two generations back DID not have AC. As far as who took care of the elderly, the family did. It was expected. Three generations under one roof was far more normal then than it is now. And, to be honest, I think we lost something along the way when all of a sudden that trend grew out of favor in place of things like nursing homes, retirement homes, snowbirds in Florida and Arizona, etc. There are limits to how valid independent elderly lifestyles have true merit - and I am talking about those who are NOT active, but those that are indeed frail or starting to become so.

Sorry, just my opinion. And, you did not answer my question - would you trade places with your mother, grandmother, or great grandmother?[/quote]
Last edited by Jnyusa on Thu Apr 27, 2006 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jnyusa
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Post by Jnyusa »



Ok, this time I really DID screw up. Last night I thought I had accidentally deleted a post by The Watcher, and it turned out that's not what happened, but the above post really is my fault.

Watcher, I went into your post to fix your quotes ... you were missing one [/quote] and it caused the quote function not to work. But I did something stupid ... I opened your post using "quote" instead of "edit" because I was still freaked out from last night, and then I saw that I could add the [/quote] you needed because apparently my admin panel lets me do that even if I'm not inside the edit function.

But guess what - it changed your avatar to mine. :rage: :rage: :rage:

Everyone - the whole post is there, but it appears under my avatar instead of The Watcher's.


Jn
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vison
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Post by vison »

TheWatcher, I agree with much of what you say.

Guys, I have to say I've read a lot of whining in this thread.

Right in the middle of the morning rush in my house. Will be back.
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Faramond
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Post by Faramond »

This isn't about what anyone deserves. I think to focus on whining or something misses the point. This is about what is economically sustainable.
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Maria
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Post by Maria »

My parents will come stay with us when they can no longer live by themselves, I don't care what it costs us! I've worked in a rest home, and no relative in my family will EVER have to live in such a place. :puke:


edit: This declaration is contingent on us having a place to live in the first place....
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vison
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Post by vison »

Yes, it is indeed about what is economically sustainable.

It might just be time for those who hold the power of the ballot to elect a government devoted to the well-being of all its citizens.

No one can have their cake and eat it, too. We in the western world have been trying it for quite awhile.

Here's another stupid old cliche: the piper must be paid.

My Mum is one of the "greatest generation". She's nearly 82, in excellent health, well off for money, and enjoying the fruits of a lifetime of hard work. Her generation survived the Great Depression and fought WW II. (Canada did not have to be dragged kicking and screaming into that conflict, Canada was in it from Day One.) She and my Dad raised six children. They saved their money. My Dad was a union man all his working life and fought hard for the benefits that he enjoyed in his last years and that my mother is enjoying now.

When my Mum dies, and her estate passes to her children, it will be part of the largest wealth transfer in history. In Canada her generation holds billions and billions of dollars, and it will pass tax free to my generation. (I'm one year too old to be a baby-boomer.) Because of our social programs, my Mum will probably not have to spend her money for health care. (But if she does, she does. That's what they scrimped and saved for, after all.)

Is Canada more broke than the US? Is it going to be? Are the doomsayers right, that we can't go on since there will be no one to pay into our social schemes? I never know who to believe, some say yes and some say no.

We aren't important in the world, we aren't fighting an expensive war. (Although Canadians keep getting killed in Afghanistan, and that is costing us more than lives. Still, it can't be compared to the US's expenditures in Iraq, etc.)

My comment about whining was perhaps a bit harsh. But the people who post here are the wealthiest people in history, living at a standard higher than anyone from 200 years ago could even imagine. Not only are we wealthier, but we seem to have wandered into some realm where our families are nuisances.

We are terribly self-absorbed and devoted to our creature comforts.

I don't know what the answer to it all is, heaven knows.
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eborr
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Post by eborr »

The whole this is about what people work and strive for, if you live in a society where the only determinent is how much the individual can accumulate, then bascially the old and the poor will suffer.

If however we take the view that we do have compassion to care for those who helped pay for our education, and fed us and housed us, then we are going to have to do without those consumer good.

The reality is that in the UK 95% of the wealth is enjoyed by less than 5% of the population, now by any yardstick that's strikes me as unfare, up unitl the time of the satanic Thatch that money was being re-distributed, under all subsequent Govts. this is not the case.

The fact is that 5% can easily afford to pay more tax, and if they threaten to leave the country if the tax rates are raised let them do so, just as long as the state makes sure they can't take their money with them.

We would then easily be in a position to look after the needy
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Post by Faramond »

I don't think this can really be about saving money and income distribution in the end.

The ratio of unproductive citizens to productive workers gets too high, then something bad will happen. I know little about economics ... I'm just going on common sense here. If productive labor became scarce, wouldn't inflation go way up? If too many people are trying to live off of savings and investments and things won't the value of such things go way down?

The problem now, I guess, is paying off all this interest from the high standard of living for unproductive workers in order to keep inflation from going through the roof soon. I'm not making any judgement here, or saying what anyone deserves.
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