2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This new piece says that it's an "open secret" in Washington D.C. and especially among conservatives there that "Ginni Thomas is an idiot," and it quotes from some "widely circulated" emails that Mrs. Thomas shared over the years to demonstrate her low intelligence.

With all due respect, I really dislike "reporting" like this, and I'm not sure what value it brings to the discussion.

[N.E. Brigand]

This new piece says that it's an "open secret" in Washington D.C. and especially among conservatives there that "Ginni Thomas is an idiot," and it quotes from some "widely circulated" emails that Mrs. Thomas shared over the years to demonstrate her low intelligence.

With all due respect, I really dislike "reporting" like this, and I'm not sure what value it brings to the discussion.

I also dislike reporting like this, which is why I called it out for what I take to be its argument that it was so well known that Ginni Thomas was dumb, and thus not to be taken seriously, that what she was doing in relation to January 6th therefore wasn't dangerous.

[N.E. Brigand]

White House logs show over 7-hr gap in Trump calls on Jan. 6 -report

More completely illegal stuff that he will completely get away with without any consequences.

Further to the other story that V noted: White House logs show over 7-hr. gap in Trump calls on Jan. 6 (Reuters)

"Logs turned over to the House panel investigating the attack showed no calls placed to or by Trump between 11:17 a.m. and 6:54 p.m. while his supporters violently rioted at the Capitol as lawmakers were set to certify Trump's 2020 election loss, the news outlets reported. The 11 pages of records turned over to lawmakers showed Trump talked to at least eight people by phone before the gap and eleven afterward".

What makes it especially ridiculous is that there are several calls that Trump is known to have made during that period, like the one to Senators Lee and Tuberman (Trump was trying to reach one of them but called the other's phone), about which they complained vociferously during Trump's impeachment trial, claiming that Democrats were mischaracterizing it.

Apparently Donald Trump last night said in a statement the CBS and the Post that "I have no idea what a burner phone is, to the best of my knowledge I have never even heard the term."

But here's one of the reporters on that story with an update:

Oops. Donald Trump will now have to claim that he hasn't read his own lawsuit against his niece Mary Trump, which uses the term "burner phone" three times and claims that her use of a burner phone to communicate with a New York Times reporter writing about Trump family finances was "tortious, wrongful, and/or unlawful in nature."

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This new piece says that it's an "open secret" in Washington D.C. and especially among conservatives there that "Ginni Thomas is an idiot," and it quotes from some "widely circulated" emails that Mrs. Thomas shared over the years to demonstrate her low intelligence.

With all due respect, I really dislike "reporting" like this, and I'm not sure what value it brings to the discussion.

I also dislike reporting like this, which is why I called it out for what I take to be its argument that it was so well known that Ginni Thomas was dumb, and thus not to be taken seriously, that what she was doing in relation to January 6th therefore wasn't dangerous.

Gotcha. I misread your post.

With regard to your next post, while I always insist that my clients thoroughly read any Complaint that I file on their behalf and confirm that everything in it is accurate to the best of their knowledge, I am quite sure that there are occasions where they have failed to do so. Though if have any doubts, I will take the time to go through the document with them paragraph by paragraph.

Of course, while some have held responsible positions, none were, like, you know, the president of the United States.

[N.E. Brigand]

White House logs show over 7-hr gap in Trump calls on Jan. 6 -report

More completely illegal stuff that he will completely get away with without any consequences.

Further to the other story that V noted: White House logs show over 7-hr. gap in Trump calls on Jan. 6 (Reuters)

"Logs turned over to the House panel investigating the attack showed no calls placed to or by Trump between 11:17 a.m. and 6:54 p.m. while his supporters violently rioted at the Capitol as lawmakers were set to certify Trump's 2020 election loss, the news outlets reported. The 11 pages of records turned over to lawmakers showed Trump talked to at least eight people by phone before the gap and eleven afterward".

What makes it especially ridiculous is that there are several calls that Trump is known to have made during that period, like the one to Senators Lee and Tuberman (Trump was trying to reach one of them but called the other's phone), about which they complained vociferously during Trump's impeachment trial, claiming that Democrats were mischaracterizing it.

Apparently Donald Trump last night said in a statement the CBS and the Post that "I have no idea what a burner phone is, to the best of my knowledge I have never even heard the term."

But here's one of the reporters on that story with an update:

Oops. Donald Trump will now have to claim that he hasn't read his own lawsuit against his niece Mary Trump, which uses the term "burner phone" three times and claims that her use of a burner phone to communicate with a New York Times reporter writing about Trump family finances was "tortious, wrongful, and/or unlawful in nature."

With regard to your next post, while I always insist that my clients thoroughly read any Complaint that I file on their behalf and confirm that everything in it is accurate to the best of their knowledge, I am quite sure that there are occasions where they have failed to do so. Though if have any doubts, I will take the time to go through the document with them paragraph by paragraph.

Of course, while some have held responsible positions, none were, like, you know, the president of the United States.

And I had completely forgotten about this report just four months ago in Rolling Stone, though I read it at the time:

[N.E. Brigand]

Per The Guardian:

"Trump used an official White House phone with a 202-390 prefix to call Sen. Mike Lee on Jan. 6 — which means it should have been in the presidential call log but was not, raising prospect of tampering."

[RoseMorninStar]

The truth will out, eventually. The big question is, will it make a difference and if not, why not?

[N.E. Brigand]

What does the average Republican think when they see someone at a Trump rally say lunatic nonsense like this?

[RoseMorninStar]

And Trump isn't producing this evidence because...??

[N.E. Brigand]

If there is an FBI investigation into Donald Trump, this is the kind of evidence prosecutors might be looking to obtain before charging him:



The stuff in yellow is the evidence that one journalist (Marcy Wheeler), believes would be absolutely necessary to bring charges.

To be sure, that's just her take, and it is presented in a way that supports her longstanding argument that (1) the Dept. of Justice is in fact investigating Donald Trump for obstruction of an official proceeding; (2) the evidence the government has collected in hundreds of other cases over the past fifteen months is evidence that will also be used to support a Trump indictment, and (3) such an investigation would have few other signs visible to the public, particularly if prosecutors delay aggressive steps for stuff in the "nice to have" column.

I found her full explanation to be worth reading. (And it's not very long.) She notes, for instance, that it took the government more than a year just to break the password on the phone belonging to, and thus to read the communications of, Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio, who was arrested, and whose phone was seized, two days before January 6th. He was charged with conspiracy just last month for his role in organizing the attack.

[N.E. Brigand]

Today was the first day of the bench trial for Cuoy Griffin, the founder of "Cowboys for Trump" and a county commissioner in New Mexico, whose lawyer managed to convince the federal judge on the case to uphold Griffin's attempts to get the Secret Service to testify as to the location of Vice President Mike Pence during the insurrection. Griffin claims that Pence was no longer in the Capitol when Griffin entered that building, which would reduce the penalty that Griffin faces for doing so. . . .

Griffin's attorneys this morning tried a different approach, arguing that the law defines a "restricted building or grounds" as, among other places, "the building or grounds where the President or other person protected by the Secret Service is temporarily visiting," and that because Pence, as the President of the Senate, has an office in the Capitol, he can't have been visiting temporarily. Griffin's lawyers also argued that Griffin didn't know he was in a restricted area because he was never explicitly told by law enforcement that he couldn't be there. And yet this picture, in which he climbs up to the Capitol portico using a barricade as stairs, suggests he should have known:



And Judge Trevor McFadden agreed he should have known: he rejected those arguments and found Griffin guilty of entering a restricted area. However, the judge found Griffin not guilty of disorderly conduct while he was there. Yesterday the judge ruled that the government could not introduce into evidence some videos that they had only recently obtained showing Griffin's activity in the Capitol. They had been in the possession of an associate of Griffin, and the judge said yesterday that the government screwed up in not obtaining the videos earlier (in time for the defense to prepare). I suppose it's possible that if the judge had seen them, he might have found Griffin guilty on the second count too. Griffin will be sentenced at a later date. While the maximum for the charge is a year in jail, he may get off without serving any more time. Griffin spoke outside the courtroom after the trial today and per reports, he pushed some January 6th conspiracy theories that are new to me, including the claim that neither Ashlii Babbitt nor Brian Sicknick are dead.

Judge Trevor McFadden, a federal judge in D.C. overseeing a number of the January 6th cases, issued an order today in which he "declines to toll under the Speedy Trial Act until the government confirms that discovery is substantially complete" in the case of Nicholas Rodean of Maryland, who is charged with Obstruction of an Official Proceeding and Aiding and Abetting, Destruction of Government Property, Entering and Remaining in a Restricted Building or Grounds, Disorderly and Disruptive Conduct in a Restricted Building or Grounds, Engaging in Physical Violence in a Restricted Building or Grounds, Disorderly Conduct in a Capitol Building, Act of Physical Violence in the Capitol Grounds or Buildings, and Parading, Demonstrating, or Picketing in a Capitol Building. Rodean is the man at the far right of this picture:



He was arrested on January 13, 2021 and charged about two weeks later. Unlike the horned fellow next to him in that picture, Jake Angeli aka Jacob Chansley (the "QAnon Shaman"), who pleaded guilty and was sentenced to three years in prison, Rodean pleaded not guilty. As I understand it, McFadden's ruling refers to a federal law which requires the government not to unduly delay a defendant's trial: a person must be indicted within 30 days of being arrested, and trial must start with 70 days of indictment. There are many reasons that the clock may be "tolled," i.e., paused, some set out in the law and some at the judge's discretion in the interest of justice, and obviously there has been some tolling in Rodean's case, given that it's now well over a year since he was arrested. One reason for the delay in this case is that the government is required to provide "discovery" to defendants, and they needed time to do that. Discovery is information that the government has that's relevant to the defendant's case.

It's a good thing for both individuals and society that the government cannot drag out proceedings too long and that the government has to give anyone charged with a crime all the information they might need to defend themselves at trial. However, in this situation, those good things are likely to lead to a bad outcome: Rodean is likely to have the charges against him dismissed because they government won't be ready for the trial in time.

Why? Because so many people broke the law on January 6th that prosecutors keep getting new information relevant to previously charged cases. And they don't have enough staff working the case to keep up. The Dept. of Justice did indicate a few days ago that they were adding yet more prosecutors to the team working on January 6th cases; I believe they'll largely be pulled from district offices around the country. But essentially the judge is ruling that they should just stop arresting so many people -- and that's not a problem DOJ can easily solve.

Same judge, more difficulty for the prosecution in a January 6th case. Today in another bench trial, Judge Trevor McFadden found Matthew Martin of New Mexico, who later referred to January 6th as a "magical day" whose events he was thrilled to have been part of, not guilty of the four misdemeanor counts related to his having entered the Capitol that day. The judge found, as a Politico reporter writes, that even though Martin "walked past fences with signs saying 'AREA CLOSED' and recorded video of a broken window, blaring alarms, police in riot gear, and people who appeared to have encountered tear gas" that those factors "were outweighed by Martin’s 'plausible' belief that he had permission because officers didn’t try to stop him from entering."

Of course, the reason police didn't tell the insurrectionists to stop at that entrance and some others -- after they had already crossed barricades just to reach the doors -- is that the police were grievously outnumbered and had to pick their battles. A Capitol Police inspector called as a witness in this trial "testified that given the large number of people, the officers understood they couldn't stop them from coming in, but could only observe and try to make sure no one got hurt". I would add that where the police did try to hold their ground, they were brutalized by the mob.

I think it's an overly credulous but not completely ridiculous ruling by the judge, who accepted Martin's arguments that he was, essentially, just following the crowd and didn't recognize the significance of all those warning signs mentioned by the reporter above.

Judge McFadden has repeatedly indicated that he feels the Dept. of Justice was being unfairly selective in its decision to prosecute at least some of January 6th defendants while failing (under Bill Barr's leadership, mind you) to prosecute various Portland rioters for what he considers to be equivalent behavior. The Dept. of Justice over the past six months has pointed out in filings what they see as clear legal differences between the two situations (e.g., many rioters in Portland were not within a specially restricted area); as far as I can tell, he has ignored those arguments. Given that apparent bias on his part, and the fact that he's a Trump appointee, the Dept. of Justice should probably count itself lucky that he did rule, like most of the other D.C. circuit federal district judges, that a number of January 6th defendants can be charged with obstruction of an official proceeding.

But if the Dept. of Justice does charge Donald Trump for his part in the insurrection, I think they better hope that they don't draw McFadden as the judge.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
On the other hand, Judge Carl Nichols, the only judge to rule against the government's January 6th position about insurrectionists having obstructed an official act (DOJ last week filed a motion asking him to reconsider, pointing out that his decision, based on the claim that such obstruction requires documents to have been destroyed, would lead to "absurd" conclusions -- that was DOJ's term, although they included it by citing another judge in a non-January 6th case), is also the judge on the contempt of Congress case against former Trump aide Steve Bannon for his refusal to testify or provide documents to the January 6th Committee, and he ruled today in favor of the government's motion to block Bannon from arguing that he was relying on his lawyer's advice when he refused to testify.

[N.E. Brigand]

Not sure where to put this, so I'll just append it here since it concerns some fellow travelers:

Here's a photo of Michigan state senator Mike Shirkey, leader of the state senate's Republican majority, at a Grand Rapids rally one year ago with William Null, one of the men charged a few months later in the plot to kidnap Michigan's governor, Gretchen Whitmer. The photo was posted online by Jason Howland, a right-wing Michigan activist who had called for Whitmer's arrest and who paticpated in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

And two posts from the "Trump's America" thread:

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/ ... 921409002/

LANSING — The federal government has charged six people with conspiring to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, according to newly unsealed court records.

Members of a militia group purchased weapons, conducted surveillance, and held training and planning meetings, but were foiled in part because the FBI was able to infiltrate the group with informants, according to a criminal complaint.

The FBI became aware early in 2020, through social media, that a militia group was "discussing the violent overthrow of certain government and law enforcement components," and "agreed to take violent action," according to a sworn affidavit.

Members of the group talked about "murdering ... tyrants" or "taking" a sitting governor, according to the affidavit. One of the relevant meetings the FBI monitored was held June 20 in Grand Rapids. the affidavit alleges. Another meeting was held at a home in Luther, Mich., and in Munith.

Discussions included using 200 men to "storm" the Capitol Building in Lansing, kidnap hostages, including, Whitmer and try the governor for treason, according to the affidavit.

Speaking of clowns. The Clown-in-Chief was out war-mongering and rabble rousing against one of our own citizens. A governor. What is wrong with him? With people? Seriously.

Trump Brought Rage Toward Gretchen Whitmer And Doubt About The Kidnapping Plot To Michigan. He Had A Receptive Audience.

The plot against Whitmer “maybe” was “a problem, maybe it wasn't,” Trump told thousands of supporters at a Tuesday rally in Michigan.

Only a disgusting low-life does stuff like this.

Today in Grand Rapids, a jury found two of the men charged with plotting to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whiter in 2020 not guilty and deadlocked regarding the other two men. Two other men previously pleaded guilty. The jury seems to have agreed with the defense's argument that despite the defendants' extremist views, they were mostly hapless losers who never would have conspired if not for the FBI's confidential informants and undercover agents egging them on. As this article in Buzzfeed notes, the jury acquitted despite the defense having been blocked from presenting most of the evidence that might suggest an entrapment case. This is not the first time a high profile domestic terrorist case in Michigan has fallen apart: in 2012, six weeks into the trial of nine members of the Hutaree militia group for an alleged plot to overthrow the government -- in which claims of entrapment also played a role -- the judge dismissed the seditious conspiracy charges, ending the case against most of the group; three of them did plead guilty to some weapons charges and got time served.

This is a useful reminder about the difficulty in prosecuting such cases and perhaps about the dangers of FBI overreach.

That said, despite claims by some January 6th insurrectionists to the contrary, it does not appear that FBI agents had any role in inciting the storming of the Capitol.

[N.E. Brigand]

"We have multiple paths. We control them all."

source: Donald Trump Jr. texted Mark Meadows ideas on how to overturn the 2020 election (Business Insider)

Mind you, that particular message dates to November 5, the day before the election, and Don Jr.'s lawyer says he was probably just forwarding Meadows a message originally written by somebody else.

[N.E. Brigand]

Earlier today, Charles Donohoe, who led the North Carolina chapter of the Proud Boys, pleased guilty to a charge of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, and he is cooperating with prosecutors. Here is his Statement of Offense. Among other things, it says that:

(1) by mid to late December "Donohoe understood that the purpose of the rally in Washington, D.C. on January 6, 2021, was to stop the certification of the Electoral College vote";

(2) by at least a few days before the event, "Donohoe believed that storming the Capitol would achieve the group's goal of stopping the government from carrying out the transfer of presidential power" -- and that he knew that it was against the law to storm the Capitol; and

(3) "Donohoe recognized that the handful of officers who were guarding the Capitol were severely outnumbered".

- - - - - - - - - -
Meanwhile, as per this piece at Buzzfeed, more than 250 people have pleaded guilty to charges pertaining to January 6th. (The headline of that article says 200 people. It was first posted several weeks ago, but the table within the document has been updated through today.)

[N.E. Brigand]

"We have multiple paths. We control them all."

source: Donald Trump Jr. texted Mark Meadows ideas on how to overturn the 2020 election (Business Insider)

Mind you, that particular message dates to November 5, the day before the election, and Don Jr.'s lawyer says he was probably just forwarding Meadows a message originally written by somebody else.

As a number of people are observing, for all the attention devoted to Hunter Biden, he was never part of his father's vice presidential or presidential offices, unlike Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, and there's been nothing to suggest he did anything to interfere in an election, but Donald Trump, Jr. only avoided being prosecuted for his interaction with Russia in 2016 because Robert Mueller decided he didn't know he was breaking the law (and wasn't sure how to assign a value to information that would be used to affect an election), and now we learn that Don Jr. was also plotting ways to undermine the 2020 election results.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile, "Stop the Steal" organizer to cooperate with DOJ in Jan. 6 probe

[RoseMorninStar]

Based on the premise that they/the Trump team (thought) they had the 'fix' in for the election it's no wonder Trump presumed he couldn't have lost. Not that he would ever admit a loss in any circumstance.

[N.E. Brigand]

"We have multiple paths. We control them all."

source: Donald Trump Jr. texted Mark Meadows ideas on how to overturn the 2020 election (Business Insider)

Mind you, that particular message dates to November 5, the day before the election, and Don Jr.'s lawyer says he was probably just forwarding Meadows a message originally written by somebody else.

I think journalists James Fallows and Matt Yglesias are correct to note the following disparate treatment by the New York Times.

April 9, 2022, one article about this story below the fold on page A-15:



October 29, 2016, three articles about one story above the fold on page A-1:



And the 2016 story turned out to have no intrinsic importance whatsover (as seemed pretty likely from the start), but was hugely influential!

(Reading Wikipedia's articles on the 2016 election makes my blood boil. After Hillary Clinton contracted pneumonia in September of that year, "the media criticized the Clinton campaign for a lack of transparency regarding Clinton's illness." This would be the same media who have never figured out what really happened when Donald Trump, then the president, was mysteriously rushed to the hospital in October 2019; the colonoscopy claim made by one Trump aide more than a year later just isn't credible. I can't begin to say how many times I saw people claim that Clinton in 2016 was actually dying and using a body double.)

[N.E. Brigand]

This is quite interesting: an examination of the transcript of one of the first January 6th insurrectionists to have been interviewed by the FBI (just two days later).

What I appreciate most is that it provides a case study in how Russian election interference helped carry Donald Trump to victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016: the insurrectionist, Doug Jensen, told the FBI that he had been planning to vote for Clinton that year, but changed his mind after Wikileaks released emails from the DNC and Clinton campaign chair John Podesta.

Remember, Trump only won thanks to a combined total of 77,664 votes in three swing states (while losing overall by nearly 3 million). So if only 39,000 people voted the other way, Clinton would have become president. Russian propaganda on Facebook alone is reported to have been shared with over 125 million Americans.

In other words, based just on Facebook as the medium, fewer than 0.4% of those Pennsylvanians, Michiganders, and Wisconsinites who received 2016 Russian election disinformation needed to be as pliable as Doug Jensen was in order for the plot to work. Russia appears to have been given information by the Trump campaign to help target its propaganda to key districts in those states.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Obviously, it can never be conclusively proved, but I have no doubt at all that Russian election interference was the deciding factor in the 2016 presidential election (even more than the Giuliani/Comey false restart of the false email investigation).