2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[N.E. Brigand]

At the forecast page on 538.com, the Democrats' chances of holding the Senate had climbed to 70% the past two days before falling back to 69% today.

Meanwhile, the Republicans' chances of taking the House has fallen to 74%.

Even at 70%, the site said that Democrats were "slightly favored" to hold the Senate.

Meanwhile at 74%, the site says that Republicans are "favored" to take the House.

I'm wondering where the 538 cut-off between those categories falls.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It's actually toggled back and forth several times in the past couple of days between 70% and 69%. I thought the cut off from "slightly favored" to "favored" was 70%. I wonder if it never actually fully reached 70% but only was rounded up?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Now it is up to 71%, and it does say "favored" not "slightly favored."

The House raise also has ticked another point towards the Democrats, 27% to 73%. If the trend continues, the Democrats will have better odds at keeping the Senate then the Republicans will have at taking the House. Hopefully we'll get to the point where they start saying "slightly favored" in the House.

[RoseMorninStar]

Haven't there been issues with polls skewing overly optimistic for democrats? Enough that they are wondering about the bias built into such polls? I'd like to be optimistic.. but cautiously so.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yes, absolutely. But 538 is built, at least to some extent, to take that type of thing into consideration. They were, for instance the only prognosticator that gave Trump any chance at all just before the election in 2016, albeit still having Clinton as the favorite.

[N.E. Brigand]

Now it is up to 71%, and it does say "favored" not "slightly favored."

The House raise also has ticked another point towards the Democrats, 27% to 73%. If the trend continues, the Democrats will have better odds at keeping the Senate then the Republicans will have at taking the House. Hopefully we'll get to the point where they start saying "slightly favored" in the House.

I noticed that 538's polling average now has Tim Ryan up by 3% over J.D. Vance in the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, and checking their predictions page, they now have Democrats at 72% for the Senate and Republicans at 72% in the House -- and both are "favored."

But to further respond to Rose's question: yes, some analysts are warning that the polls may be off in swing states this year in the same way that they were in 2016 and 2020: for whatever reasons, Republican-leaning voters in those states (but not all states) weren't responding to polls there at the same rate as Democrats. If that's happening again, then 538's predictions -- despite adjustments they make to adjust for such problems -- may likewise be off.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

checking their predictions page, they now have Democrats at 72% for the Senate and Republicans at 72% in the House -- and both are "favored."

Wow that changed significantly in the fifteen minutes between when I checked and you checked! Good news about Tim Ryan; that has changed significantly.

[N.E. Brigand]

At 538.com, Democrats have slipped back down from yesterday's peak to 70% odds for the Senate and 27% odds for the House. I wonder how the news from New Hampshire will affect things. In that state, the Republican primaries for Senate and House last night were won by three extreme candidates (election-denying, QAnon-friendly Trump supporters).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Back to 71% (and favored) for the Senate, and 28% for the House.

[River]

Back to 71% (and favored) for the Senate, and 28% for the House.

In 2020 I started limiting myself to one peek per day and this time around I just can't bear to look.

Silver's model jiggles around as new polls come out but changes in the trend take days to appear. What I'm curious to see is if the current numbers hold or if we start reverting to the mean. But maybe he's already discussed that and I haven't seen it because I can't bear to look.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

We have achieved equilibrium.

[RoseMorninStar]

I wish there were better candidates.. of any party. We seem to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

[N.E. Brigand]

I wish there were better candidates.. of any party. We seem to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

Too many House candidates for me to keep track of, but on the Senate side, and focusing just on the eight possible swing states in the middle of the 538 forecast from most likely to least likely to be won by Democrats, I think John Fetterman, Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez Mastro, Raphael Warnock, Mandela Barnes, Cheri Beasley, and Tim Ryan are at least no worse than any such slate we might pick from a past election cycle.

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Meanwhile, a new Fox News poll finds, among other things, that (1) Joe Biden's approval rating is 43%, (2) Democrats lead Republicans on the generic House ballot by 44%-41% (even if that's accurate, Democrats probably need to lead by more than 5% -- due to gerrymandering -- to hold the House); (3) Americans approve of Joe Biden's student debt cancellation plan, 54%-43%; and (4) the public, by a 17% margin, thinks that government should due more to help people.

[RoseMorninStar]

I wish there were better candidates.. of any party. We seem to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

Too many House candidates for me to keep track of, but on the Senate side, and focusing just on the eight possible swing states in the middle of the 538 forecast from most likely to least likely to be won by Democrats, I think John Fetterman, Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez Mastro, Raphael Warnock, Mandela Barnes, Cheri Beasley, and Tim Ryan are at least no worse than any such slate we might pick from a past election cycle.

I have hopes for Mandela Barnes but I'm not holding my breath. We'll probably be stuck with (gag) Ron Johnson again. And we also have the likes of Glenn Grothmann who doesn't belong in a high office as any sort of representative. Not by a long shot.

[N.E. Brigand]

This piece notes that while the generic House ballot has shifted toward Democrats nationally, that's not true in swing districts, where Republicans still lead:

Democrats may be counting their votes before they're cast.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Very good article by Nate Silver.

Will The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again?

[RoseMorninStar]

Gerrymandering doesn't help.

[N.E. Brigand]

At 538.com, Democrats have slipped back down from yesterday's peak to 70% odds for the Senate and 27% odds for the House. I wonder how the news from New Hampshire will affect things. In that state, the Republican primaries for Senate and House last night were won by three extreme candidates (election-denying, QAnon-friendly Trump supporters).

One of those election-denying New Hampshire Republicans, not that he's the nominee and needs the votes of more than just Republicans, has just had an epiphany and says he now realizes that Joe Biden did win the 2020 presidential election after all.

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And speaking of 538.com:

Very good article by Nate Silver.

Will The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again?

I like Matt Yglesias's description of that article as "The most persuasive hit of hopium you’ll find".

[N.E. Brigand]

Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee in Pennsylvania's gubernatorial race, apparently is paying the right-wing social media site Gab for followers: every new account there now automatically follows Mastriano's account. When a reporter contacted the company's anti-Semitic* CEO to ask about this, he replied as follows:

We're taking back this country for the glory of God and there's absolutely nothing you can do to stop us. We are playing the long game and unlike most of you, we have children and thus the future belongs to us because we are raising them up with a Biblical worldview. Keep writing, you're only making us stronger and galvanizing support from the base. After six years you guys still don't get it and it's hilarious. Repent now and accept Jesus Christ in your heart. Every knee will bow, yours included. God bless!

*One example of the CEO's anti-Semitism is his claim to be "building up a parallel Christian society because we are fed up and done with the Judeo-Bolshevik one." Another would be how he boasted about the number of visitors Gab received after the maniac who killed eleven people in 2018 at the Tree of Life synagogue (in Pittsburgh, i.e., in the state Mastriano seeks to lead!) was found to have been a frequent poster there. And yet Mastriano agreed to be interviewed by Gab's CEO and told him: "Thank God for what you have done."

The Republican nominee for governor in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, was recorded in 2020 praising Confederate sympathizers. At Gettysburg. Which was the site of a famous battle when the Confederacy invaded Pennsylvania.

The men that Mastriano commended were supposedly there to protect a statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee. In 1863, Pennsylvania's governor Andrew Gregg Curtin, a Republican, was very active in the Union war effort, and was closely involved in the effort to stop Lee at Gettysburg. I imagine that a majority of Pennsylvanians at the time would have cheered if Lee had been killed there.

Doug Mastriano, who has held a seat in the Pennsylvania state senate since 2019, was registered to vote in New Jersey until 2021.

[N.E. Brigand]

Although it's not just the music that makes it weird: