Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Frelga]

Definitely a masterful performance, and very much to a purpose. Zelensky is not there for photo ops, he is crafting a powerful message that shapes public opinion all over the world while Western leaders look like pants in comparison.

Between that, and the well founded fear that putin is completely off his rocker and won't stop at Ukraine, West has actually moved to do something other than light up things in yellow and blue. At least to the extent of selling some weapons.

And then there's stuff like this. Possible? Yeah. True? Who knows.

[Sunsilver]

Let's hope it's true. There have certainly been widespread protests in Russia against the invasion!

[N.E. Brigand]

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tonight tweeted that "During our Administration [i.e., Trump's presidency], we were clear about the things that mattered. We drew a set of lines and then were prepared to enforce them with enormous viciousness."

Also tonight, although as I noted before, Donald Trump did refer to the Ukrainian people as brave, he also repeated his previous statement that Vladimir Putin is smart, and he added that NATO's leaders are "not so smart," that sanctions are a "pretty weak" response to Russia's invasion.

So just as a reminder: Transcript of Pres. Trump's July 25, 2019 call with Pres. Zelenskyy

(In the same speech, Trump also said: "If Democrats want to fight for democracy [in other countries], they should start with Canada. . . . The tyranny we have witnessed in Canada in recent weeks should shock and dismay the world.")

- - - - - - - - - -
Zelenskyy won the Ukrainian version of "Dancing With the Stars" in 2006 (video at link).

- - - - - - - - - -
Multiple observers tonight are noting that the Biden administration has repeatedly suggested some response to Russia, and then other countries or the EU announce they're taking that step, and only then does the White House announce that they will be joining the other countries. The SWIFT restrictions follow that pattern. Whatever it takes to build a consensus!

- - - - - - - - - -
Oof. To add to what Frelga noted above about Chernobyl, here's something about a different site:



- - - - - - - - - -
NBC reporter Raf Sanchez says: "My hotel in Moscow asked me to settle the bill early because they aren’t sure if credit cards are going to work once SWIFT sanctions kick in."

- - - - - - - - - -
In light of events in Ukraine, today Japan's former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, said that (1) the U.S. should abandon the longheld policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan and declare that Taiwan will be defended against any attack from China and (2) Japan should consider the possibility of hosting American nuclear weapons.

- - - - - - - - - -
Pro-Ukraine rally earlier today in the capital of Estonia:



- - - - - - - - - -
I've read that this meme is circulating among Ukrainian-Americans. It's is a bit crude, but dark times and all:

A

(Unfortunately the days ahead will probably reveal a word missing form the final frame: "yet".)

- - - - - - - - - -
As noted here, Zelenskyy said this to the Ukrainian parliament in his inaugural address: "I do not want my picture in your offices: the President is not an icon, an idol or a portrait. Hang your kids' photos instead, and look at them each time you are making a decision."

(Some people are recalling that it was reported during the first Trump impeachment inquiry that Vice President Mike Pence was supposed to attend that inauguration, but President Trump stopped Pence from going as part of his pressure campaign to get Ukraine to announce an investigation into the Biden family.)

Zelenskyy and his family:


But speaking of kids, some were killed in Kyiv tonight, reportedly including a six-year-old patient in a children's cancer hospital that was (presumably accidentally bombed by Russian forces.

[Frelga]

Found Odessa Twitter. Not linking because some of the videos are pretty graphic. It's war. One claims to show a Russian transport stopping to ask for directions, only to be attacked by local gopniks. The poster claims that they took out the driver with a chunk of asphalt, but you can't see it in the video. Another shows a driver of a different transport shot from a highrise window.

Re the radioactive waste site - follow up reports say that only the fence was hit.

Well. It's morning and Kiyiv is still standing. But heavy fighting is reported in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city.

It's starting to bug me that Western sources keep talking about "unexpected" resistance. Whose fault is it that they did not know enough to expect it? What exactly, did they think would happen?

An interesting point - most of the videos of plucky Ukrainians challenging Russian soldiers feature Russian speakers. Some have less of a Ukrainian accent than the boys on tanks.

Russian trolls are resorting to "no, this is actually the plan, putin doesn't want to send his best troops to start with." It'd be a fucking stupid plan if it were true.

[Sunsilver]

Over 600 Russian scientists have signed a letter condemning the invasion:

https://www.eureporter.co/world/russia/ ... h-ukraine/

“Having unleashed the war, Russia doomed itself to international isolation, to the position of a pariah country. This means that we, scientists, will no longer be able to do our job normally: after all, conducting scientific research is unthinkable without full cooperation with colleagues from other countries. The isolation of Russia from the world means further cultural and technological degradation of our country in the complete absence of positive prospects. War with Ukraine is a step to nowhere.

“It is bitter for us to realize that our country, which made a decisive contribution to the victory over Nazism, has now become the instigator of a new war on the European continent. We demand an immediate halt to all military operations directed against Ukraine. We demand respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state. We demand peace for our countries. Let's do science, not war!”

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It's starting to bug me that Western sources keep talking about "unexpected" resistance. Whose fault is it that they did not know enough to expect it? What exactly, did they think would happen?

I know, right? Unexpected to whom?

Russian trolls are resorting to "no, this is actually the plan, putin doesn't want to send his best troops to start with." It'd be a fucking stupid plan if it were true.

Any way you look at it, the whole thing is fucking stupid.

[Frelga]

Russia locked out Twitter access. Suddenly, it became a much nicer space, with a notable abatement of trolls posing as American at-right, climate denialists, etc. Suddenly, it is possible to have a sensible conversation with people who don't entirely agree with you.

This thread sums up the current situation. In short, Kiyiv is holding, and no major city has been taken, but Putin says his nuclear forces are on high alert.

[Anduril]

I have little of value to add, but I check https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/new/ over and over daily for news on the latest developments, quicker than CNN etc because it's ground level.

You can apparently eavesdrop on Russian military radio by just using a website and tuning in.

[N.E. Brigand]

Wendy Rogers is a Republican state senator in Arizona. Rogers is an ardent Trump supporter and a member of the Oath Keepers militia (several members of that group, including its founder, were charged last month with seditious conspiracy for their role in the Jan. 6th insurrection). She's been in the news this week for speaking at a white nationalist conference. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a disgraced representative in the U.S. Congress from Georgia, also spoke at that event. This morning, U.S. senator Mitt Romney, like Greene a Republican, asked to comment on Greene's attendance, called her a "moron," but yesterday Arizona's Republican governor, Doug Ducey, said he'd rather have Rogers in her seat than a Democrat.

This morning, Rogers tweeted: "Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons." I don't mean to give her undue attention, since she's all but admitted that's what she's looking for, given that just in the past half hour she's tweeted "Stop explaining, never back down, never apologize and attack" and "Every time I get attacked for saying something I just want to say it more." But I'm going to note that even if it's primarily a stunt, it surely represents her genuine antisemitic views, since also this morning she issued a tweet blaming this war on "the bankers," another claiming that the media wants "global government so they can enslave us all," and a third claiming that Zelenskyy, as well as Jacinda Ardern, Emmanuel Macron, and Justin Trudeau, "all report to the same Satanic masters." Now she's chortling over the fact that the story of an ace Ukrainian fighter pilot nicknamed "the ghost of Kyiv," who supposedly had downed six Russian jets, has turned out to be propaganda. (Lots of people already were treating that story with caution, as shown, for example, by the fact that no one shared it in this thread.) And she claimed today that "The West is trying to deplatform and debank Russia. This is just as wrong as invading Ukraine."

I wonder how the 200,000 Arizonans she represents feel about her now.

[Frelga]

This is astounding and also predictable. And also explains a lot. Seriously, read the whole thread.

I'm sure no one on this board is taken in by the "this is caused by the expansion of NATO" line, but it's a good way to respond to someone who is.

Yesterday, multiple Russian state media published an extremely shocking, even for Kremlin standards, essay: it presumed "Putin solved the Ukrainian question for ever" - i.e. it presumed Russia took over Ukraine and essentially annexed it into a forever-new--old-union. But.....this essay was apparently written for a scenario where Russian armed forces had taken over Kyiv and subjugated the country...Which didn't actually happen. So, what did state news agency do? They deleted the article, as if the plan had never been published in the first place.

[N.E. Brigand]

Interesting read, Frelga. That's in keeping with the Russian intelligence chief "accidentally" (?) saying in Monday's staged meeting that he endorsed Russia's annexation of the two breakaway Ukrainian "republics," only to be shot down by Putin saying "that's not what we're discussing now."

- - - - - - - - -
The EU has announced that its member nations will be providing fighter jets to Ukraine. These apparently will be jets currently used by other eastern Europeean countries of the same models that Ukrainian pilots already are trained to fly.

[N.E. Brigand]

Seriously, what is the deal with the long tables?

If it's a fear of Covid, he could wear a mask just like President Biden does. And Biden is more than a decade older than Putin.

Is it a fear of assassination? Does Putin have reason to think his own generals will kill him?

[Sunsilver]

I went to that link, and saw some interesting things!

Unarmed civilians block Russian tank:


Burned-out Russian tanks and trucks:
I don't know if the person is speaking Russian or Ukrainian. From the video caption, I'm pretty sure it's Ukrainian. Too bad we can't get a translation!

[Frelga]

He's mostly speaking swears.

[Sunsilver]

LOL! Not a huge surprise!

I've also heard from more than one source that Russian tanks and trucks are running out of fuel, which would make them easy targets to be destroyed by a few well-aimed Molotov cocktails! Well, maybe not the tanks, but if people could get access to the cabs of trucks and other vehicles, it would be bye-bye.

Also, I take this one with a rather large grain of salt, but knowing that supply lines are one of the weak spots in any war, and that Ukrainians have been removing road signs to confuse the Russians, I can believe part of it!

[N.E. Brigand]

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tonight tweeted that "During our Administration [i.e., Trump's presidency], we were clear about the things that mattered. We drew a set of lines and then were prepared to enforce them with enormous viciousness."

Also tonight, although as I noted before, Donald Trump did refer to the Ukrainian people as brave, he also repeated his previous statement that Vladimir Putin is smart, and he added that NATO's leaders are "not so smart," that sanctions are a "pretty weak" response to Russia's invasion.

So just as a reminder: Transcript of Pres. Trump's July 25, 2019 call with Pres. Zelenskyy

(In the same speech, Trump also said: "If Democrats want to fight for democracy [in other countries], they should start with Canada. . . . The tyranny we have witnessed in Canada in recent weeks should shock and dismay the world.")

I totally forgot how Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, following an NPR interview in January 2020, berated the reporter about her choice of questions, saying to her: "Do you think Americans fucking care about Ukraine?" and accusing her of not even knowing where Ukraine was, something he was so convinced of that he had an aide pull out an unlabeled map (on which the reporter had no trouble pointing out Ukraine's location).

[Sunsilver]

Firsthand report from a journalist in Kyiv!

Russia's War Is Not Going Well: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/russi ... s8WpGHkImQ

Most telling quote from the article:

I can verify simple things with my own eyes and ears. For the fourth day running, the center of Kyiv has been eerily quiet. There is the odd crump of explosives somewhere 15 or 20 miles away but that’s all. Word is the bangs are being made by Russian missiles targeting Kyiv’s main power station, on the east bank across the Dnipro River from the city, being blown out of the sky by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense. I have had continuous electricity and internet in my rented apartment for the length of the war and that’s not good for Putin’s self-confidence.

I have yet to see a Russian soldier, nor have any of my Kyiv-based colleagues. No tanks, no Chechens, no sound of artillery. I have yet to meet a single Ukrainian civilian who is angrier with their own government than Putin. Zelenskyy critics still don’t like him because of his closeness to the Ukrainian oligarch, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, but they prefer that their president be from their own country, not Russia. The same goes for my pal, New Lines correspondent Oz Katerji, who gets out more to the front lines than I do. Ukrainian soldiers are with the government, full stop.

[River]

My husband made a crack this morning about how they tried to helicopter Zelensky out of Kyiv but the craft got weighed down by his balls.

I tried to explain to my nine year-old what was going on. I told her Russia believes Ukraine should be part of it, that Ukraine used to be part of it, and they want it back. She's a smart kid. She couldn't comprehend it. But, then again, who can?

ETA: Russia's decision to arrest anti-war protesters is interesting. Not even Milosevic did that (I live with an authority on the subject ). It's actually a really quick way to legitimize the protests. If you want them silenced, you really need to just ignore them.

[N.E. Brigand]

Kudos to Fox reporter Jennifer Griffin who tonight said on the air that Trump administration plans (fortunately not enacted) to "pull all U.S. troops out of Germany ... [were a] projection of weakness [that] made Putin think he could move into a sovereign country."

Mind you, Griffin's remarks came right after some awful comments on that program by the previous guest, former army colonel Douglas Macgregor, who served with distinction in the Gulf War, retired from service in 2004, advised the Dept. of Defense during the Trump administration, and was nominated in July 2020 by to be the U.S. ambassador to Germany. Macgregor's nomination stalled due to the surfacing of a number of bizarre or racist statements he'd made over the years. The vacancy in that ambassadorship wasn't filled until the Biden administration.

Tonight Macgregor said on Fox that Russia should be allowed free reign in Ukraine because "the population there is indistinguishable from their own."

So how did Macgregor end up as a government advisor during the Trump administration in the first place? (And thus be in a position to be treated by Fox as a credible commentator?) I'm not sure, but this is interesting: apparently in 2014, Macgregor appeared on the Russia Today network following Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea and said that Russia should also annex the Donbass region, the area whose so-called declarations of independence last week were the pretext for this war.

- - - - - - - - - - -

Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida (who in most other respects is a shameless opportunist), is the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and has been sharing (probably with the approval of the Biden administration) information about how the U.S. assesses Russia's plans. Within the past hour, Rubio tweeted:

Russia plans to encircle Kyiv, force the legitimate govt of Ukraine to flee & install “Vichy Ukranian” puppets
Key to this plan is a large Russian Airborne Forces operation
We may see an attempt to execute on that operation within a matter of hours

As I said more than a month ago, any such puppets should carefully consider the examples of Philippe Pétain (sentenced to death, commuted to life in prison) and Vidkun Quisling (executed by firing squad) -- or less drastically and in Ukraine's own recent past, Viktor Yanukovych, who was pro-Russia, ousted in a popular uprising in 2014, and fled his country never to return.

The Ukrainian government says that Viktor Medvedchuk, who has been described as the most pro-Russian politician in that nation, and who has been under house arrest in his home in Kyiv since last May, has fled. He was considered by many the likeliest Quisling.

But fled to where and for what purpose? Was he considering my advice? Or is he trying to join up with the advancing Russian forces?

- - - - - - - - - -
A Ukrainian mechanic in the Spanish island of Mallorca sank a Russian oligarch's yacht there.

[N.E. Brigand]

Moments of levity in serious times: