Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Sunsilver]

Alatar, I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I know the political situation is Ukraine is much more complicated that Westerners think or understand, with a Nazi group being allowed to join the military in the fight against Russia. It's kind of an 'enemy of the enemy is my friend' situation.

Are you comparing the Russians to the U.S troops in Vietnam?

I know the Russian troop were told Ukrainians were going to greet them with open arm, as liberators that were saving them from the Nazis who had supposedly taken over. Of course, that was NOT the case, especially in the area around Kyiv!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This seems appropriate

I agree 1000%.

[River]

I think Sunny, Al's comparing US action in Vietnam to Russian action in Ukraine. It's not a perfect comparison. For one thing the Ukrainians aren't guerillas melting back into the landscape. It's some pretty conventional war happening over there. Uniforms, tanks, civilians caught in the crossfire, the whole nine yards. But that whole "We'll be greeted as liberators!" thing...yeah. We thought that in Vietnam, we thought that in Afghanistan, and we thought that in Iraq. if the Russians were as smart as they think they are, they'd've learned from their rival's mistakes. You'll be greeted as a liberator if you help clear out an invader, not if you're an invader yourself.

[RoseMorninStar]

I think Sunny, Al's comparing US action in Vietnam to Russian action in Ukraine. It's not a perfect comparison. For one thing the Ukrainians aren't guerillas melting back into the landscape. It's some pretty conventional war happening over there. Uniforms, tanks, civilians caught in the crossfire, the whole nine yards. But that whole "We'll be greeted as liberators!" thing...yeah. We thought that in Vietnam, we thought that in Afghanistan, and we thought that in Iraq. if the Russians were as smart as they think they are, they'd've learned from their rival's mistakes. You'll be greeted as a liberator if you help clear out an invader, not if you're an invader yourself.

I read (early on) that passive Russian intelligence in Ukraine told Putin whatever he wanted to hear and what he wanted to hear was that Ukrainians wanted to be part of Russia. Because it was an easy and lucrative job these sources fed Putin's fevered dreams of glory and didn't envision an invasion based on information they were passing along.

[N.E. Brigand]

Apparently, Ukrainian Forces have blown up a military airport in Crimea, over 200 km. inside Russian-held territory. Ukraine has not officially acknowledged it, of course, but it certainly looks like they were responsible. Many Russian military aircraft were destroyed.

"accidental detonation of ammunition stores" my a**!

https://www.businessinsider.com/base-bl ... 2zHNDq2dGA

Politico reports:

A senior administration official told NatSec Daily the U.S. supports strikes on Crimea if Kyiv deems them necessary.

"We don't select targets, of course, and everything we've provided is for self-defense purposes. Any target they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by definition self defense," this person said.

After your host checked to see if the administration considered the peninsula sovereign Ukrainian territory, the official replied: "Crimea is Ukraine."

That last sentence has been U.S. policy for years and even has its own page on the U.S. State Department website.

[Sunsilver]

Now, that is very interesting, N.E.!

[Frelga]

I can't quite get a full list of Russian things that went splody today.

Reported events last night (mostly from @JimmySecUK feed)

• Explosions at munitions depot, Timonovo, Belgorod
• Fire/explosions at Stary Oskol Airfield, Belgorod
• Explosions in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson
• Air defence activity near Kerch strait, Crimea. Not clear what Russians are shooting at. The catchphrase on pro-Ukraine Twitter right now is What air defense doing?
• Explosions/UAV shot down near Belbek airport, Crimea - possibly unconfirmed
* Air defense doing something near Sevastopol, possibly explosions on the ground. Sevastopol is where the Black Sea Navy is. Possibly related to Belbek

It's not clear what caused the recent large explosions in Crimea.

Russians said it was caused by violation of cure safety rules. Ukraine said, "Oh, totally, you got to be careful with cigarettes." US said it wasn't their weapons, and indeed these were out of range of HIMARS. There was a mention of special forces or local guerillas. Some sort of drone seems most likely.

It's a great success for Ukraine, but it's really sad. Crimea is one of the few places on earth with more natural beauty than California, with bonus warm seas and history going back to Ancient Greece. It deserves better than Russian occupation.

[River]

I'm seeing reports that the Ukrainian Army is taking the offensive in Kherson and so far has been successful. Frelga, can you substantiate this?

[Frelga]

It's a little early to call it a success, but there is definitely an offensive toward Kherson, which appears to have made breakthroughs in 3 areas. Channels used by Wagner, Russian mercenary group, confirm this.

Ukraine has taken out or damaged bridges across Dnipro, which will make it difficult for Russia to send supplies and reinforcement across the river.

Politico
Ukraine has ‘good chance’ to retake territory, U.S. assesses

[N.E. Brigand]

Oh, come on!

[elengil]

[RoseMorninStar]

Oh, come on!

Isn't that how someone else supposedly died not too long ago? Another high ranking person/opponent/dissident?

[Sunsilver]

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[Frelga]

Since the start of the offensive, Ukraine asked for a media blackout. It was not entirely granted, but for a while the fog of war was thick.

Most of the info I saw in recent days came from Russian Telegram screenshots. Sources like the Wagner group - Russian mercenaries - are less concerned with making putin happy and more with pressing the higher ups for reinforcements, total mobilization and a lick of common sense.

The repeated themes are - bridges across Dnipro are destroyed, supplies on pontoon bridges and ferries are slow, Ukrainian artillery is terrifyingly precise and seems to have enough ammo to hit individual targets.

In the last days, Ukrainian sources are back with videos of Ukrainian flags being raised in liberated villages. It's not quite clear where the lines are now. Both Kharkiv and Kherson have been mentioned. To add to the confusion, many small towns share names (there are several Semenivkas, for example).

Meanwhile, putin announced that Russia lost nothing since invading Ukraine.

[River]

I took Putin's statement as a sign Ukraine is successfully retaking its own territory. Russia loses nothing when Ukraine boots them out of places that belong to Ukraine. Everybody wins.

[River]

Um...guys...Ukraine's taken back a major rail hub and Russia's on the retreat. May they run them all the way to the coast and into the sea.

I've seen some interesting chatter in a r/worldnews thread I've been following (full of Ukraine fans so there is a bias) about how much territory has really been retaken, but I like to wait for more official announcements because fog of war.

[N.E. Brigand]

How can that be? Less than two weeks ago, Fox News host Tucker Carlson was insisting that:

"By any actual reality based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine. He is winning the war in Ukraine."

[Frelga]

It's a rout. I can't even describe what is happening with any kind of detail, because Ukraine is re-taking cities faster than I can post.

20220910_091653.jpg (43.11 KiB) Viewed 1724 times

Russia, a terrorist state to the core, responded by attacking power plants in several major cities, turning off electricity for the civilian population because what's another war crime.

Power is already back on in Poltava, Sumy, and much of Kharkiv. I've been without power longer in California's rolling blackouts.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Is anyone else worried about what irrational things Putin might do in response to Ukraine's apparent gains?

[Frelga]

There will be more attacks on Ukrainian civilians. But the ongoing counteroffensive is curtailing the ability of RuZZians to carry them out, and enhancing Ukrainian ability to retaliate.

Putin is going to arrest a bunch of his commanding officers, and there will be an epidemic of window cancer, and repressions against anyone perceived as a dissident. In other words, I expect his focus to be on Russia.

He still has enough control over the internal narrative that he could end the invasion of Ukraine tomorrow, call it a victory, and get away with it. Which is why I have always dismissed the panicked calls not to provoke putin He doesn't care about anything that happens outside Moscow.